Welcome to my waiver wire breakdown ahead of Week 15.
This breakdown is not a “one size fits all” kind of thing. Every league is different, and I don’t know the situation you’re in. I can’t tell you how much you should bid on any given player.
We’re at the point in the season where only one thing matters: winning. Players mentioned from here on out will be about getting you to the next week.
The point of this breakdown and my analysis is to give you the tools to make the best decision possible. I’ll provide as much detail as I can and encourage everyone to subscribe to my weekly rankings and check those on Wednesday night.
Most importantly, use my initial ranks for the week to see where I have everyone ranked. It’s 100% the best way to see how I view their short term value.
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Beckham has been trending up with a few big games recently, and the underlying usage is definitely encouraging. He’s seen a massive target rate of 38% the past three weeks.
The only thing holding him back, really, is playing time, but it’s trending up — he ran a route on 57% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks.
He will be more consistent if that clears 65% going forward. But for now, he’s a WR4 who has a high ceiling, but potentially a lower floor that he just hasn’t hit lately.
QB Jake Browning
Browning had another great game. Due to the scheme, his pass catchers and sneaky rushing upside, we can view him as a mid-range to high-end QB2 depending on matchup.
RB Chase Brown
Brown also had another great game and flashed his big-play upside. He’s still just outside of RB3/Flex range as long as Joe Mixon is healthy, but he has RB2+ upside if Mixon misses time, so he is clearly a priority add.
I’ve been getting asked about targeting defenses for the playoffs. I think it’s sharp to look ahead like that and I’m not opposed. You just want to look at defenses that might be facing WAS, NYJ, CAR, NE or CHI.
Defenses are such a crapshoot that even if you have a top-five defense that week, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee you get a great score from them.
I still think it’s key to use extra space to stash backup RBs. Here are a few to consider this week and/or as stashes:
RB Ty Chandler
Alexander Mattison might miss this week.
RB Isaiah Spiller
He appears to be the new No. 2. There's still a ton of uncertainty there, but with the Chargers looking toward 2024 and beyond after the Justin Herbert injury, the team could give him an extended look.
RB Zamir White
Josh Jacobs is banged up, so White could start this week on the short week. It’s a longshot, but I doubt you’d need to spend much FAAB (not that we are trying to save that as much anymore) to stash him.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
He should have already been added in his spot start last week. But if Isiah Pacheco misses again, he’d be a RB2/3 option again.
RB D'Onta Foreman
Returned last week and took back lead-back duties. He’s a RB3/Flex option depending on the matchup.
