Saturday's third round was suspended due to inclement weather while roughly half the field was still on the back nine, which means many of our third round PrizePicks plays are still in the air. That being said, we can still look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which will get underway following the conclusion of the third round in the morning.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 TOUR Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 10x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
2022 TOUR Championship Round 4 PrizePicks Plays
Patrick Cantlay: Round 4 Under 67.5 Strokes
We have a unique situation brewing on Sunday with about half the field needing to finish their back-nine from the third round in the morning before undertaking the final 18 holes. In my eyes, this is a big advantage over the rest of the field for Round-4-specific bets as they will be much more warmed up for the final round.
With this in mind, the first guy we are backing in the fourth round is Patrick Cantlay. This is a repeat play from the third round and we are going back to the well once again.
Entering Sunday, Cantlay is T5 at 14-under par. It has been an extremely infuriating first three days for Cantlay, who has only his putter to blame for not being in first place entering the final day. Not only does he rank last amongst the field in SG: Putting, but it is now statistically the worst putting performance of his entire career.
The worst part is that Cantlay's putts are not even far off, they just refuse to drop. If this trend reverses course on Sunday, then Cantlay should fire up the leaderboard.
The rest of Cantlay's game has been perfect, which is why he is still just five strokes back from the leader. Entering the final day, Cantlay ranks first in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Tee-to-Green, and GIR%, which are all the biggest indicators of success at East Lake Golf Club.
I would play this total down to 67.
Xander Schauffele: Round 4 Under 67 Strokes
Another golfer we are backing in the fourth round is Xander Schauffele. Entering Sunday, Schauffele is in second place at 18-under par.
Despite not being in first place, Schauffele has pretty clearly been the best golfer in this tournament. There are absolutely no gaps in his game, and while Scheffler has not been bad by any means, Schauffele has still been able to chip away at the lead because of his outstanding play (remember, the field started with staggered strokes).
Amongst the field, Schauffele ranks second in SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green, only sitting behind the aforementioned Patrick Cantlay. Schauffele shot a 66 in the first round and 63 in the second, with the third round still pending.
We should not expect regression from Schauffele during the final round. On TOUR this season, he ranks 38th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 11th in GIR%.
Additionally, East Lake Golf Club is a track that Schauffele has absolutely dominated in the past. Schauffele has now shot a 67 or lower in eight of his last 10 rounds at this track (80%).
I would play this number down to 66.5.
Corey Conners: Round 4 Over 9.5 Fairways Hit
In another repeat play from the third round, we are going back to the well once again on Corey Conners. Conners was one of the guys who was able to complete his round on Saturday, entering the final day T27 at even-par.
While it has been a tough tournament for Conners, the one constant aspect of his game that has been strong is the driver. Going over this total in each of the first three rounds, we are going to ride the trend one last time.
The driver has been a staple of Conners' game all season. On TOUR this year, Conners ranks fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 21st in Driving Accuracy.
While Conners is toward the bottom of the leaderboard, he does have the advantage of being able to play extremely loose on Sunday.
I would play this total up to 10.
Jon Rahm: Round 4 Over 8.5 Fairways Hit
The other golfer we are backing off the tee box in the final round is Jon Rahm. Entering Sunday, Rahm is T5 at 14-under par.
Going over this total in two of the first three rounds, we are going to buy low on Rahm after a poor driving performance on Saturday. On TOUR this season, Rahm ranks 1st in SG: Off-the-Tee and 55th in Driving Accuracy.
While most of Rahm's driving success comes from his length, East Lake Golf Club is a relatively easy course to find fairways on, especially considering Rahm's caliber of play. He had a few questionable decisions off the tee box on Saturday that led to his first round going over this total, such as that 3-wood that found the water on hole eight.
I can not think off the top of my head of a worse performance off the tee for Rahm this season than we saw on Saturday, and he obviously knows that as well, and it will be a major focus of his on the range in the morning.
I would not play this number higher than 8.5.
J.T. Poston: Round 4 Under 7.5 Fairways Hit
We are also fading one golfer off the tee box in the fourth round, J.T. Poston. Entering Sunday, Poston is in 15th place at 10-under par.
That being said, Poston's current positioning is solely due to his putting and scrambling. Outside of those areas of his game, the rest has been fade-worthy, particularly his driving outside of the first round.
Hitting only seven fairways in the third round, we should expect a similar performance on Sunday. On TOUR this season, Poston ranks just 109th in Driving Accuracy, lower than 60%.
I would not play this total lower than 7.5.
