2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Best Bets: 3 Picks for Fourth of July From Former Competitive Eater
(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) Pictured: Patrick Bertoletti, our former competitive eater’s pick for the best bet to win the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.
- The 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds are wide open without Joey Chestnut in the field this Fourth of July.
- Geoffrey Esper is the current odds-on favorite for the hot dog eating contest, with Australian James Webb right behind him.
- After the top two hot dog contest competitors, there has been betting odds movement that factors into our Hot Dog Eating Contest best bets and picks for Thursday.
2024 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds
| Competitor | Contest Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Esper | -105 | 42.58% |
| James Webb | +140 | 34.64% |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +900 | 8.31% |
| Nick Wehry | +1100 | 6.93% |
| King Yamamoto | +3400 | 2.38% |
| Gideon Oji | +4900 | 1.66% |
| Radim Dvoracek | +8000 | 1.03% |
| Darrien Thomas | +10000 | 0.82% |
| Max Stanford | +10000 | 0.82% |
| George Chiger | +10000 | 0.82% |
| Derek Henderson | +10000 | 0.82% |
| Ricardo Corbucci | +10000 | 0.82% |
| William Claude Lyon IV | +10000 | 0.82% |
| Sean Yeager | +10000 | 0.82% |
Odds via FanDuel. Chance to win based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.
The Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest will have a new winner this year, as 16-time champion and world record holder Joey Chestnut is banned from this year's contest.
The 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is one of the most anticipated events of the year and holds a significant place in the competitive eating world, with this year's contest showcasing top eaters like Geoffrey Esper and James Webb. With Chestnut out due to his partnership with Impossible Foods, Geoffrey Esper is the favorite to win the 2024 hot dog contest at FanDuel Sportsbook, with Esper -105 in the latest betting odds for Thursday's competition at Coney Island.
Esper is followed by James Webb at +140, then Patrick Bertoletti at +900 and Nick Wehry at +1100. Wehry had been the third favorite behind Esper and Webb, but Bertoletti has been taking on bets all week, having moved from +1300 to +900 at FanDuel. After those four, the hot dog contest odds for the remaining competitors get substantially longer.
I'm a former competitive eater who failed to qualify for this very contest in 2009 and I have a Ph.D. in mathematics. Does that make me a hot dog contest betting expert? Probably not (Editor's note: I mean, I'm not sure there's anyone else I would want to tail for my hot dog bets, you know?), but I did do some digging to find three best bets for this year’s hot dog contest in the absence of Joey Chestnut.
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, presented by Major League Eating, starts at 10:45 a.m. ET on Thursday, July 4, with the women’s competition on ESPN’s streaming platforms. The men’s 2024 hot dog contest starts at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Let's get to the latest hot dog contest odds for this year's contest.
For more on the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Contest, including odds for both the men and women, over/under lines, and even more picks, check out How to Bet July 4th With No Joey Chestnut.
2024 Hot Dog Eating Contest Best Bets
James Webb/Geoffrey Esper Combined Hot Dogs Eaten: Under 99.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
The James Webb Space Telescope is nearly one million miles from Earth, but we don't need its power to spot an opportunity to fade its namesake in this year's contest.
James Webb — the Australian competitive eater — was last year's third-place finisher, eating 47 hot dogs and buns (HDB) in 10 minutes. He finished two dogs short of Geoffrey Esper's 49 for the runner up spot, giving them a combined total of 96 HDB in last year's contest.
Just look at each eater's personal best and the number falls below 99.5. Webb's 47 in last year's contest remain his personal best, while Esper has a best of 51 HDB.
In addition, the weather forecast for this year's event calls for 65-70% humidity, which would be the third- or fourth-most humid contest in the Chestnut era of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Traditionally, higher humidity has correlated with lower HDB totals in both the men's and women's contest.
Patrick "Deep Dish" Bertoletti to Win
The men's contest is likely a four-horse race between Esper, Webb, Nick Wehry and Patrick "Deep Dish" Bertoletti.
Bertoletti has the most experience of this quartet, having first competed in the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2007. Bertoletti also has the highest personal best of all the eaters in this year's field, with a best of 55 HDB in the allotted 10 minutes.
Just last month, Bertoletti won the Cleveland qualifier for this contest, downing 48.25 HDB and besting Wehry by one-quarter of a dog. That 48.25 HDB total is just three-quarters of a dog less than Esper's runner-up total of 49 last year.
With humidity potentially keeping competitors under their bests, that should keep the field even closer, so I like taking a long shot flier on Bertoletti. Bertoletti was as long as +1300 at FanDuel when I bet him, but his odds are on the move, so be sure to shop around. As of early Thursday morning, he is +1200 at ESPN BET.
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Men's Competition Winner: Under 51.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
The same humidity angle is a good reason to back the under here.
While having four eaters within striking distance of this number is a bit uncomfortable, we're asking them to push to limits only one has reached before, and that came back in 2009 with Bertoletti, who only managed 48.25 last month in more favorable conditions.
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