The Fourth of July is always a historic day — and that will be the case in Coney Island on Thursday, as the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest will crown a new winner of the men's competition.
In fact, we've already seen history on Thursday, with 10-time winner of the women's contest Miki Sudo setting a new world record in the women's hot dog contest to get things started.
You probably also know that the greatest competitive eater of all time, Joey Chestnut, will not participate in this year's July 4th hot dog contest due to his new partnership with Impossible Foods. And with the Goliath of hot dog consumption out of the picture, this year’s contest is wide open. (On that note, the odds of Chestnut’s record of 76 hot dogs eaten being broken are a whopping +10000).
Geoffrey Esper is your favorite to win the men’s side of the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest at -130 at DraftKings — but he’s not our expert’s pick to win on Thursday. Let’s get to the hot dog contest odds for both the men and women, plus our picks and bets for how to bet the July 4th hot dog contest.
2024 Men's Hot Dog Contest Odds
| Competitor | Contest Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Esper | -130 | 48.05% |
| James Webb | +185 | 29.83% |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +900 | 8.50% |
| Nick Wehry | +1500 | 5.31% |
| Field | +2500 | 3.27% |
| Gideon Oji | +5000 | 1.67% |
| Derek Hendrickson | +10000 | 0.84% |
| Darrien Thomas | +10000 | 0.84% |
| Max Stanford | +10000 | 0.84% |
| George Chiger | +10000 | 0.84% |
Odds via DraftKings. Chance to win based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.
In the latest hot dog contest odds, Geoffrey Esper is your favorite to win the men’s side of the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, with betting odds of -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook. James Webb, Patrick Bertoletti and Nick Wehry are next, with one of those two featuring in our bets for the July 4th hot dog contest.
2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Picks, Bets
Matt Mitchell: The Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest, organized by Major League Eating, is now an Independence Day gambling tradition. Split into a men’s and women’s competition, the world’s top eaters assemble on Coney Island to devour their way to $40,000 in prize money.
I love betting on this contest. As a former driver of the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile, I’ve consumed more hot dogs than most see in their lifetime. But since 2007, this competition has become the gastronomical equivalent of Secretariat’s Belmont laugher in 1973.
Such is the dominance of Joey Chestnut in the competitive eating world. The legendary American eater has left Coney Island victorious (almost) every year for a period spanning four presidential administrations. But remarkably, the men’s contest will be without Chestnut this year. And just as America’s eating god closes a door, he opens a window of gambling opportunity.
The current favorite is Geoffrey Esper, a serious and muscular Massachusetts man just shy of quinquagenarian status. A three-time runner-up, Esper’s odds have shifted this week based on the popularity of his foremost opponent.
At age 35, Australian James Webb is 14 years younger than Esper and the hot dog eating champion of the southern hemisphere. Webb’s odds have moved from +200 to +125, suggesting a very live ‘dog indeed.
Rather than handicap the winner, I’m betting total dogs eaten instead. Esper jumped from 47.5 in 2022 to 49 last year, and his total sits at 49.5. Last year, Webb improved by over a half-dozen dogs to 47.5, which explains his total climbing north of 48.
The ancient proverb tells us that “iron sharpens iron,” and the same is true of competitive appetites. In the first genuinely competitive men’s contest in ages, with $10,000 and national TV glory on the line, I like both Esper and Webb to eclipse their totals.
Pick: Geoffrey Esper Over 49.5 Hot Dogs Eaten
Pick: James Webb Over 48 Hot Dogs Eaten
Andrew Norton: Even though the Chestnut-less field has some semblance of parity, it should be a two-man race between Esper and Webb.
Webb is still relatively new to the speed-eating scene, beginning just a few years ago, but his progression from 2022 to 2023 is extremely promising. He plowed through 41 hot dogs in 2022 and took a substantial step forward in 2023, knocking down 47.
At this point in his career, Esper, 49, has likely tapped out his potential, meaning if Webb makes another sizable stride, he could eclipse 50 dogs. That would probably be enough to secure the title in Chestnut’s absence.
Webb has all of the upside and is in his eating prime. He is only now beginning to see how good he can be as a competitive speed eater.
At +200, the value is with Webb, who estimates he can put down 55 hot dogs on Thursday. Esper’s personal best is 51 hot dogs and buns, so we love plus money on Webb.
Pick: James Webb to Win 2024 Hot Dog Contest
2024 Hot Dog Eating Contest Props, Prop Bets
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner
- Men's Contest: 51.5 hot dogs (-118 over/-108 under)
Hot Dog Contest Winning Margin
- Men's Contest: 2.5 hot dogs (+234 over/-180 under)
- Women's Contest
- Women's Winner to win by 0.25-5 hot dogs (+110)
- Women's Winner to win by 5.25-10 hot dogs (+200)
- Women's Winner to win by 10.25-15 hot dogs (+360)
- Women's Winner to win by 15.25-20 hot dogs (+1400)
- Women's Winner to win by 20.25+ hot dogs (+1800)
Over/Under Odds
- Geoffrey Esper/James Webb combined: 99.5 hot dogs (-140 over/+110 under)
- Miki Sudo/Geoffrey Esper combined: 89.5 hot dogs (-115 over/-115 under)
- Miki Sudo/Nick Wehry combined: 85.5 hot dogs (-130 over/+100 under)
- Geoffrey Esper total hot dogs eaten: 49.5 hot dogs (-130 over/+100 under)
- James Webb total hot dogs eaten: 48.5 hot dogs (-105 over/-125 under)
- Nick Wehry total hot dogs eaten: 46.5 hot dogs (-115 over/-115 under)
- Patrick Bertoletti total hot dogs eaten: 45.5 (-130 over/+100 under)
- Miki Sudo total hot dogs eaten: 40.5 hot dogs (+125 over/-155 under)
- Gideon Oji total hot dogs eaten: 36.5 hot dogs (-115 over/-115 under)
- Mayoi Ebihara total hot dogs eaten: 35.5 hot dogs (-125 over/-105 under)
- Michelle Lesco total hot dogs eaten: 27.5 hot dogs (+100 over/-130 under)
Personal Record Odds
- Will Joey Chestnut's record of more than 76 hot dogs be beaten? Yes (+10000), No not available
- Will Miki Sudo's record of more than 48.5 hot dogs be beaten? Yes (+750), No (-2000) — Yes cashes!
2024 Women's Hot Dog Contest Odds
| Competitor | Contest Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Miki Sudo | -900 | 78.94% |
| Mayoi Ebihara | +500 | 14.62% |
| Michelle Lesco | +4000 | 2.14% |
| Katie Prettyman | +5000 | 1.72% |
| Field | +5000 | 1.72% |
| Larell Marie Mele | +10000 | 0.87% |
Odds via DraftKings. Chance to win based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.
Miki Sudo, who holds the women's record with 48.5 hot dogs eaten at Coney Island, is a dominant force in the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, as shown in her dominant past performances. She is also the prohibitive favorite in this year's contest for the women, a far bigger favorite than Geoffrey Esper is for the men.
