The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery results will be revealed on Sunday, May 12.
Fourteen taciturn NBA executives will gather in a small, quiet space to watch four ping pong balls pulled from a carefully-prepared raffle barrel, and just like that, the future of these teams will change forever.
The Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, and Portland Trail Blazers have the most lottery combinations, but 14 teams will bring lucky charms, a rabbit's foot, anything that might help as fans from around the world tune in to see which teams will get first crack to draft the next NBA star.
What star will that be? That remains to be seen. There is no consensus No. 1, no Victor Wembanyama everyone's dying to get their hands on. The top pick could be G League star Ron Holland or international phenoms Alexandre Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, or Nikola Topic, maybe UConn national champions Stephon Castle or Donovan Clingan.
We'll leave that for another day. Today, we're answering a simple question: Which NBA team needs to win the lottery most?
These aren't karma rankings, nor which teams would be the most interesting winners. Some teams just need this one. They need some hope, need a new face of the franchise, a little reason to believe moving forward.
Let's rank the possible lottery winners, starting with the teams that need it the least.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 0.0% | Odds to leap into top four: 0.0%
As you see from those odds, the Thunder technically can't really win the lottery, per se — they can only lose it. Oklahoma City gets Utah's pick at No. 11 or worse, but only if three teams leap the Jazz in the lottery order. The Thunder get Houston's pick around No. 12 unless the Rockets jump into the top four.
Just as well. It's hard to watch what OKC is doing this postseason and think this team needs even more young talent on the roster. The Thunder are loaded and already extremely young, and Sam Presti already has a deep war chest of draft assets. They need this less than any team in the NBA.
13. Sacramento Kings
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 0.8% | Odds to leap into top four: 3.8%
The Kings were last season's feel-good story before dropping into the play-in and missing the playoffs this year, but Sacramento simply got too many injuries at the wrong time in a loaded conference.
This is a good roster with veterans mostly in their primes, ready to run it back and make another push next season. The Kings have all the depth they need for now — they really don't even have time to play or develop a top pick.
12. Memphis Grizzlies
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 7.5% | Odds to leap into top four: 31.9%
This is where the word "need" is important.
Would it be interesting if the Grizzlies won the lottery? Sure, absolutely. It would be very interesting to see a completely loaded young roster get one last super cheap piece to complete the roster.
Don't forget, Memphis was really supposed to be in this rising group with Oklahoma City and Minnesota, with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson as strong a young core as any, before everything fell apart this season.
In some ways, this could be Memphis's David Robinson season, the year everything went wrong so everything could go right and add Tim Duncan as the missing piece to set up the dynasty. A Memphis lottery win could drastically change the NBA landscape, maybe as early as next season.
They'll get a top-10 pick either way, so the Grizz will already get to add a young talent. With the way this team has identified and developed its young stars, maybe it doesn't need the top pick anyway.
11. Houston Rockets
Odds to win the No.1 pick: 6.0% | Odds to leap into top four: 27.4%
The Rockets have a couple ways to win the lottery.
Houston has its own pick, for now, but only keeps it if it leaps into the top four. That's unlikely after a great Rockets season landed Houston with the 12th most ping pong combinations. Their better odds come from an unprotected Brooklyn pick headed Houston's way, likely around the bottom of the top 10.
If things really go Houston's way, the Rockets could walk away with a pair of top-four picks — even both No. 1 and No. 2. More likely, they end up with just No. 9.
Either way, it's hard to see this as a big need. The Rockets' young talent is finally coming around. Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Cam Whitmore, and Tari Eason lead the way, veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks need minutes, and truthfully, Houston probably doesn't even have a spot in its rotation for another top youngster.
10. San Antonio Spurs
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 10.5% | Odds to leap into top four: 42.1%
The Spurs don't need this.
San Antonio just won the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, and boy did they ever win that one the way he already coasted to Rookie of the Year and looks like a future legend of the game. Add him to the list next to Tim Duncan and David Robinson for a franchise that has a knack for winning when it matters most — both on and off the court.
Oh sure, it would be nice! Anyone would love to add a second star next to Wembanyama, and the team still needs plenty of work. But San Antonio has time.
In truth, the Spurs have a decent chance of winning their own version of the lottery anyway. If any team outside the top six leaps Toronto into the top four, that Raptors pick drops outside the top six and becomes San Antonio's, potentially leaving the Spurs with two picks in the top eight and a huge chance to add to Wembanyama.
9. Portland Trail Blazers
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 13.2% | Odds to leap into top four: 50.0%
The Blazers finished 21-61, dead last in the West. But I don't feel sorry for them.
Portland just used the No. 2 pick on Scoot Henderson, a potential franchise point guard that would have gone No. 1 overall in many other drafts. The Blazers also have supremely talented younger players, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons. There are veterans too — Deandre Ayton, Jerami Grant, Malcolm Brogdon.
There's a real team here already. The Blazers don't need the No. 1 pick; they already have talent. Can they draft a coach instead?
8. Golden State Warriors
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 0.7% | Odds to leap into top four: 3.4%
It appears the end of the dynasty is upon us.
Golden State audaciously tried to bridge the past with the future, but it left the Warriors struggling in the present. Steph Curry is still great, but no longer getting enough help from Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, and Trayce Jackson-Davis aren't good enough yet. It's hard to imagine a 2024 rookie changing that picture.
Besides, the Warriors just had one of the best decade-long runs in league history, so how can this team really need anything?
The answer is that the Warriors don't even get to keep this pick at all unless it leaps into the top four, likely turning into a valuable trade asset Golden State could use for one last run. Otherwise, the No. 14 pick simply belongs to the Blazers.
7. Atlanta Hawks
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 3.0% | Odds to leap into top four: 13.9%
It's tough to get a read on the Hawks, who seem destined to trade away either Trae Young or Dejounte Murray this summer. Though that latter name reminds us Atlanta won't have too many more chances to add high-end talent in the draft, since the Hawks traded half their picks away already for Murray.
Atlanta could use a bit of a refresh on a roster in flux, so sure! Why not?
6. Utah Jazz
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 6.0% | Odds to leap into top four: 26.3%
The Jazz are another roster in flux, and it's hard to know how many of these names, if any, will still be on the roster for the next good Utah team.
Lauri Markkanen is a star. Walker Kessler is a future DPOY contender. Keyonte George closed out his rookie season well. Add another piece to the mix? Makes as much sense as anyone, though it's hard to get a clear picture of what sort of stew the Jazz got cooking up in Utah.
5. Detroit Pistons
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 14.0% | Odds to leap into top four: 52.1%
The Pistons are tied for the best lottery odds, but Detroit might not have been nearly as desolate as it looked this season. Detroit ranked third to last in Net Rating, not last, and it should've won around 20 games, not 14, based on the underlying numbers.
That's still bad! But it's not as horrible as it seemed, and Pistons fans have real reasons for optimism. Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren look like core pieces of the team moving forward, maybe still Jaden Ivey too, though he could end up in a sixth man role.
The team may still need a true No. 1 star, as it looks more and more likely that it might not be Cunningham — but that might not be available in this draft anyway.
With the best odds on the board, the Pistons are guaranteed to pick No. 5 at worst. They'll still get to add another piece to this collection of talent. Let someone else have a turn at the top!
4. Charlotte Hornets
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 13.3% | Odds to leap into top four: 50.3%
There's a case for moving the Hornets a few spots down the list. If you believe in LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, add in Brandon Miller and Mark Williams and there's already a nice collection of young talent here. Charlotte got its new coach in Charles Lee, one of the league's hot young assistants. This makes sense.
But this franchise badly needs a new face and an identity. It's not Michael Jordan anymore, and does Charlotte really want it to be Ball or Bridges?
A new star atop the roster might allow for a soft reset around Miller and Williams, and at this point, that might be for the best.
3. Chicago Bulls
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 2.0% | Odds to leap into top four: 9.4%
Speaking of badly needing a new face of the franchise, I present to you the case for the Chicago Bulls.
What in the world are the Bulls? This team loves nothing more than yet another run at the play-in tournament. DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Zach LaVine have this team going nowhere fast, forever stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity. Not good enough to matter; not bad enough to bottom out and tank.
The Bulls roster is full of old dudes and bad contracts. Alex Caruso is good but needs a real team. Coby White is fine. Blow it up, get rid of the veterans, trade Caruso, and build around Coby White and the new face of the franchise, taken with a top draft pick.
How sad a state are things in Chicago? The Bulls are sending Julian Philips to represent the team at the lottery. Have you ever heard of Julian Philips? Is he an assistant coach? An executive? Part of the ownership family? Sadly, no. Julian Philips was Chicago's only draft pick last year. He was 12th on the team in minutes and scored 89 points in 40 appearances.
The Bulls need this. Chicago needs some reason, any reason, to push itself forward into a new era.
Why not start with the lottery?
2. Toronto Raptors
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 9.0% | Odds to leap into top four: 37.2%
Low key, no franchise has more pressure riding on itself in this draft lottery than the Raptors.
Toronto wasn't exactly flying high, but at 23-38 around the start of March, the Raptors were just three wins out of the play-in race. Don't forget, the No. 8 seed in last year's Eastern playoffs made the NBA Finals!
But rather than competing, the Raptors pulled the plug and tanked hard, losing 19 of their final 21, mostly in embarrassing fashion. They did that because Toronto only keeps its draft pick if it stays in the top six on draft night — and the Raptors now sit precariously at No. 6.
If the Raptors leap up, that pick is secure! Even a top-four pick is a win. The roster is in flux around Scottie Barnes after all the trades this season. Immanuel Quickly is a thing. RJ Barrett? Maybe? Jakob Poeltl? Toronto badly needs some names, and the first name it needs is this top-six pick.
But if even one team outside the top six leaps up in the lottery, past Toronto, it spells disaster for the Raptors. Now this pick walks out the door to San Antonio in exchange for Poeltl, and to be clear, this is the most likely outcome, a 54.2% reality.
The Raptors would take No. 6 in a heartbeat. No. 7 is what they really can't have. So a leap up into the top four would be just what the doctor ordered.
1. Washington Wizards
Odds to win the No. 1 pick: 14.0% | Odds to leap into top four: 52.1%
Is there really any other choice at No. 1?
We were so close to a world where everything was different for this forlorn franchise. For a brief moment frozen in time last year, the Wizards literally had a six-in-11 chance of winning the No. 1 pick and the rights to Victor Wembanyama. That's 55%. It's 55% odds that everything had changed for this team, forever.
Instead, the Wizards drafted Bilal Coulibaly.
And isn't that just the story with this franchise?
A decade ago, Washington hung its hat on John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter and made repeated trips, not just to the playoffs but to the second round. Then the Wizards kept all three guys well past their expiration dates, got virtually nothing for any of them, and have been toiling in mediocrity ever since.
Have you ever seen Bilal Coulibaly play basketball? Because he's ostensibly the most valuable player asset on this team. Maybe Deni Avdija? Can I interest you in watching Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma fight over a few more shots? Are we having fun yet?!
The Wizards aren't just bad. They're irrelevant. They're not a serious NBA franchise.
And wouldn't it just be so perfectly Wizards to lose the one lottery that mattered to everyone, then win one the following season no one's really all that excited for?
Bring on that No. 1 pick.
