With a little over two weeks before the November 5 United States presidential election, Donald Trump is the biggest favorite to win that he has been in months.
Trump is currently a -162 favorite in the latest presidential election odds, with Vice President Kamala Harris a +130 underdog. Trump was as big as a -167 favorite late on Thursday night, with the odds moving again slightly on Friday morning.
In addition to those odds giving Trump a nearly 60% chance to win in the updated presidential election predictions, the former president is now the betting favorite in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the latter of which was in Harris' column until Friday.
Let's dive into everything you need to know about who is going to win the 2024 presidential election.
Election Forecast and Latest Updates
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the forecast is becoming increasingly clear. Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in the national polls, particularly among likely voters, but former President Donald Trump remains a formidable contender and an increasingly heavier favorite in the betting markets. The electoral college margin is expected to be razor-thin, with several key states still up for grabs, although many of those battleground states are trending in Trump's favor, increasing the potential for a decisive Republican party victory in November of 300 electoral votes won or more.
United States Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -162 | 58.71% |
| Kamala Harris | +130 | 41.29% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections isn't currently legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
Former President Donald Trump has a 58.71% chance to win the 2024 presidential election based on his -162 odds, making him a resounding favorite just 18 days before Election Day, November 5. Vice President Kamala Harris has a 41.29% chance to win the election given her +130 odds as an underdog.
While Harris had been the betting favorite for much of the past month, since she outperformed Trump in the first (and likely only) presidential debate between the two candidates, Trump reclaimed the lead in the betting markets a little over a week ago, as his chances to win the pivotal state of Pennsylvania continued to improve. Just a few days later, he became the biggest favorite he had been since July.
At -162 odds, Trump is now the biggest favorite he has been since 100 days before the election — back before Harris had selected a vice presidential running mate, back when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was still in the race, and back only a few short days after Joe Biden had even dropped out. At that time, Trump was -175. He has been as big as a -400 favorite to win the election, which happened in the immediate aftermath of the attempt on his life at a Pennsylvania rally.
Presidential Election Predictions
According to the latest odds-based presidential election predictions, the likeliest outcome in November is for Trump to beat Harris with either between 270 and 299 electoral votes or in a more decisive win of 300 to 329 electoral votes. Both of those outcomes currently have a 23.21% chance of happening.
Trump also has a combined 13.64% chance of winning in a relative landslide of more than 329 votes, with a 10.06% chance of between 330 and 359 electoral votes and a 3.59% chance of winning 360+. The odds of such a resounding Trump victory were a combined 12.1% earlier this week.
Overall, the electoral vote-based election predictions add up to give Trump a 60.07% chance of victory, slightly better than his 58.71% chance based on his -162 odds.
Here are the electoral vote projections for both candidates:
Donald Trump Election Prediction
| Trump Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +2500 | 2.90% |
| 180-209 | +1600 | 4.44% |
| 210-239 | +450 | 13.72% |
| 240-269 | +300 | 18.86% |
| 270-299 | +225 | 23.21% |
| 300-329 | +225 | 23.21% |
| 330-359 | +650 | 10.06% |
| 360+ | +2000 | 3.59% |
Kamala Harris Election Prediction
| Harris Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +2000 | 3.69% |
| 180-209 | +1000 | 7.04% |
| 210-239 | +250 | 22.11% |
| 240-269 | +250 | 22.11% |
| 270-299 | +275 | 20.64% |
| 300-329 | +400 | 15.48% |
| 330-359 | +1200 | 5.95% |
| 360+ | +2500 | 2.98% |
Electoral College Margin and Path to 270
The electoral college margin is anticipated to be exceptionally close, with several pivotal states still in contention. To secure the presidency, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes. Currently, Harris is leading in key states such as California, New York, and Illinois, while Trump is ahead in states like Texas, Florida, and Ohio. The path to 270 is intricate, but Trump is currently favored in several battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — states that had been leaning toward Harris until very recently. These states will be crucial in determining the final outcome of the election.
Unusual Scenarios and Prediction Markets
While national polls and the electoral college margin provide a snapshot of the race, several unusual scenarios could still unfold. For instance, if Trump wins the popular vote (which the Republicans are now just +200 to do) but loses the electoral college, it could lead to a contentious election result. Additionally, prediction markets are showing a high degree of uncertainty, with some markets giving Trump a higher chance of winning than the national polls suggest. These scenarios highlight the complexity and unpredictability of the 2024 presidential election, making it one of the most closely watched races in recent history.
Election Odds for Every State
In the state-by-state analysis, 10 states saw their presidential election odds move over the past several days — and literally all 10 went in Donald Trump's favor.
Based on the odds for each state below, this is what the electoral map could very well look like on election night, with Trump having won 306 electoral votes.
Most strikingly, the former president is now the betting favorite in Wisconsin at -118. Trump had been a +110 underdog with Harris -154 in that state as recently as this week. Trump has also become a -118 favorite in Michigan, surpassing Harris, who was -133.
| State | Odds for Trump | Odds for Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -10000 | +3300 |
| Alaska | -10000 | +1200 |
| Arizona | -333 | +225 |
| Arkansas | -10000 | +3000 |
| California | +3000 | -10000 |
| Colorado | +800 | -2500 |
| Connecticut | +2000 | -10000 |
| Delaware | +2500 | -10000 |
| Florida | -1800 | +650 |
| Georgia | -250 | +175 |
| Hawaii | +2500 | -10000 |
| Idaho | -10000 | +2500 |
| Illinois | +2500 | -10000 |
| Indiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Iowa | -4000 | +1000 |
| Kansas | -10000 | +2500 |
| Kentucky | -10000 | +3000 |
| Louisiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Maine | +650 | -1800 |
| Maryland | +3300 | -10000 |
| Massachusetts | +3000 | -10000 |
| Michigan | -118 | -105 |
| Minnesota | +800 | -2000 |
| Mississippi | -10000 | +5000 |
| Missouri | -10000 | +2500 |
| Montana | -10000 | +1400 |
| Nebraska | -10000 | +2000 |
| Nevada | -111 | -125 |
| New Hampshire | +550 | -1400 |
| New Jersey | +1400 | -5000 |
| New Mexico | +1200 | -5000 |
| New York | +2500 | -10000 |
| North Carolina | -167 | +120 |
| North Dakota | -10000 | +3300 |
| Ohio | -5000 | +1200 |
| Oklahoma | -10000 | +3300 |
| Oregon | +1600 | -10000 |
| Pennsylvania | -133 | +100 |
| Rhode Island | +2500 | -10000 |
| South Carolina | -10000 | +2500 |
| South Dakota | -10000 | +5000 |
| Tennessee | -10000 | +5000 |
| Texas | -10000 | +4000 |
| Utah | -10000 | +2500 |
| Vermont | +5000 | -10000 |
| Virginia | +500 | -1000 |
| Washington | +2000 | -10000 |
| West Virginia | -10000 | +3300 |
| Wisconsin | -118 | -105 |
| Wyoming | -10000 | +5000 |
State-by-State Odds Movement
- Arizona: From Trump -300 / Harris +200 to Trump -333 / Harris +225
- Colorado: From Harris -4000 / Trump +1200 to Harris -2500 / Trump +800
- Florida: From Trump -1000 / Harris +500 to Trump -1800 / Harris +650
- Georgia: From Trump -225 / Harris +150 to Trump -250 / Harris +175
- Michigan: From Harris -133 / Trump +110 to Trump -118 / Harris -105
- Nevada: From Harris -137 / Trump +100 to Harris -125 / Trump -111
- New Hampshire: From Harris -2500 / Trump +700 to Harris -1400 / Trump +550
- New Mexico: From Harris -5000 / Trump +1200 to Harris -2500 / Trump +800
- Pennsylvania: From Trump -125 / Harris -111 to Trump -133 / Harris +100
- Wisconsin: From Harris -154 / Trump +110 to Trump -118 / Harris -105
Chance to Win Each State
| State | Trump's Chance to Win | Harris' Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Alaska | 92.79% | 7.21% |
| Arizona | 71.42% | 28.58% |
| Arkansas | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| California | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Colorado | 10.36% | 89.64% |
| Connecticut | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| Delaware | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Florida | 87.66% | 12.34% |
| Georgia | 66.27% | 33.73% |
| Hawaii | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Idaho | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Illinois | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Indiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Iowa | 91.48% | 8.52% |
| Kansas | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Kentucky | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| Louisiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Maine | 12.34% | 87.66% |
| Maryland | 2.88% | 97.12% |
| Massachusetts | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Michigan | 51.38% | 41.62% |
| Minnesota | 10.45% | 89.55% |
| Mississippi | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Missouri | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Montana | 93.69% | 6.31% |
| Nebraska | 95.41% | 4.59% |
| Nevada | 48.64% | 51.36% |
| New Hampshire | 14.15% | 85.85% |
| New Jersey | 6.37% | 93.63% |
| New Mexico | 10.36% | 89.64% |
| New York | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| North Carolina | 57.91% | 42.09% |
| North Dakota | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Ohio | 92.72% | 7.28% |
| Oklahoma | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Oregon | 5.61% | 94.39% |
| Pennsylvania | 53.31% | 46.69% |
| Rhode Island | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| South Carolina | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| South Dakota | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Tennessee | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Texas | 91.48% | 8.52% |
| Utah | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Vermont | 1.94% | 98.06% |
| Virginia | 15.49% | 84.51% |
| Washington | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| West Virginia | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Wisconsin | 51.38% | 48.62% |
| Wyoming | 98.06% | 1.94% |
State-by-State Chance to Win Movement
- Arizona: From Trump 69.23% / Harris 30.77% to Trump 71.42% / Harris 28.58%
- Colorado: From Harris 92.69% / Trump 7.31% to Harris 89.64% / Trump 10.36%
- Florida: From Trump 84.51% / Harris 15.49% to Trump 87.66% /Harris 12.34%
- Georgia: From Trump 63.38% / Harris 36.62% to Trump 66.27% / Harris 33.73%
- Michigan: From Harris 54.52% / Trump 45.48% to Trump 51.38% / Harris 48.62%
- Nevada: From Harris 53.62% / Trump 46.38% to Harris 51.36% / Trump 48.64%
- New Hampshire: From Harris 88.50% / Trump 11.50% to Harris 85.85% / Trump 14.15%
- New Mexico: From Harris 92.72% / Trump 7.28% to Harris 89.64% / Trump 10.36%
- Pennsylvania: From Trump 51.36% / Harris 48.64% to Trump 53.31% / Harris 46.69%
- Wisconsin: From Harris 56.01% / Trump 43.99% to Trump 51.38% / Harris 48.62%
Key Dates and Events to Watch
In-person polls will open on Tuesday, November 5, with early voting and mail-in ballot initiatives allowing many Americans to cast their votes beforehand. Those processes are already in progress. Counting ballots will take weeks in some states, and the results must be certified by Congress, a process that can be contentious. The new president will be sworn into office on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington, DC, marking the culmination of this intense electoral process.
Keep in mind the winner of the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate gets the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. Those electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes.
