Billy Walters' interview on the "Joe Rogan Experience" is a must-listen for all sports gamblers, new and old.
Walters has done plenty of interviews to discuss his book "Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk," but he hadn't sat down with someone like Joe Rogan, who can ask two-and-a-half hours worth of questions.
Walters discussed why he wrote the book and made it clear that he wanted to help people. Walters has gone through many trials and tribulations throughout his 77-year life, but one of the things that has been a constant is sports betting.
He has watched the legalization of sports betting in the United States and has seen many novice bettors struggle to find ways to make money. Early on in the podcast, Walters discussed many ideas to help people become better sports gamblers.
Walters said he sees over 50 million more people now involved in sports betting, and he knows many of them will eventually become addicted.
Algorithms and Models
Walters discussed on the podcast how he started to become aware of algorithms in order to find edges in gambling. He said linked up with someone in the late 1960s who had an algorithm, and they became business partners.
Eventually, Walters learned that edges fade.
"I realized he was going to eventually lose his edge," Walters said of his first analytics-based partner. "So, I recruited six other guys with similar backgrounds to him. They did their analysis independent of what he was doing."
Walters would then take information from all seven of them to make his bets. Walters said he has been around over 50 handicappers, and all of them know their edge will eventually fade.
Walters' Current Betting Strategy
Walters said he's still heavily involved in betting on sports. When it comes to the NFL, he only bets on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The main reason for that is that's when he can get the most money down.
If Walters was a bookmaker, he said, he would take the highest limits on Thursday. That would allow him to make adjustments before the weekend. He pointed out Circa Sports as a bookmaker that's operating how he would want to operate a sportsbook.
Walters handicaps each game, and if he has a 1.5-point edge, that's worthy of a one-unit bet. For every point of edge he has, he'll bet another unit.
The biggest bet Walters ever placed, he said, was a $4.5 million bet on the New Orleans Saints +7 against the Indianapolis Colts for Super Bowl XLIV. Walters said he had a 7-point edge on that game.
Walters said he and his team have an assigned value for each of the 600-700 contributors on NFL teams. Most of it is done quantitatively, but he has a qualitative person who knows more about those players than most.
What Novices Are Doing Wrong
Walters made it clear that he has plenty of frustrations about how people are betting with sportsbooks. The biggest one, he said, is the fascination bettors have with parlays.
"A lot of these bets today, the teasers and the parlays, guys are laying $1.50 to $1," Walters said. "… the average person that’s playing doesn’t know that."
Walters said that bettors are already having to spend $11 to win $10 on straight bets. So, why do they make it harder for themselves by playing parlays that continue to give more to the house?
He also mentions how sportsbooks don't even try to hide it. It's essentially public knowledge that parlays are a massive moneymaker for these companies.
