The Detroit Lions (7-1) and Houston Texans (6-3) close today's games on NFL Sunday Night Football. The game will be live on NBC at 8:20 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium and can be streamed on Peacock or YouTube TV.
The Lions are the class of the NFC and are coming off an impressive 24-14 win over the Packers last week at Lambeau Field. Jared Goff has been efficient under center and while both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have 7 rushing touchdowns.
The Texans are 6-3 and in first place in the AFC South, but they've underwhelmed with their performances. Nico Collins remains out, which is a blow to this offense.
Lions vs. Texans Picks, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Lions vs. Texans Odds
- Lions vs. Texans Spread: Lions -3.5 (-105)
- Lions vs. Texans Over/Under: 50 points scored
- Lions vs. Texans Moneyline: Lions -185 | Texans +155
- Lions vs. Texans Best Bets: Lions -3.5 & Over 49.5
Detroit opened the week as a 4.5-point favorite, but that was quickly bet down to 3.5. The over/under of 50 points is one of the highest totals of the week.
Detroit is 7-1 overall and 7-1 against the spread. The Texans have been less prolific for bettors at 3-6 against the spread.
Our experts are backing the Lions to cover again and for this to be a very high-scoring game.
Let's gets into our NFL predictions and Lions vs. Texans predictions.
Lions vs. Texans Picks Against the Spread
By Billy Ward
The Lions have been one of the luckier teams in the NFL this season, ranking fourth in our Luck Rankings while leading the NFC with their 7-1 record. Typically, that’s a sign to fade the lucky team – but the Lions luck is carrying over into Week 10.
Detroit’s top-ranked offensive line will be without starting left tackle Taylor Decker against the Texans, but conveniently the Texans are without top pass rusher Will Anderson. Those injuries effectively cancel out, while Houston is thin at wide receiver with Stefon Diggs done for the season and Nico Collins and Tank Dell both questionable.
That’s a crucial weak spot for Houston, given that the Lions defense is fairly tough against the run.
Plus, Detroit has done a good job putting away opponents this season. The Lions have won five straight with only one of those within seven points and have a 7-1 record against the spread.
They should continue to roll against a short handed Texans team that has a point differential of just plus-1 this season. The Lions come in at a league best plus-110. While it would be nice to get this line at 3 instead of 3.5, I don’t think it will matter much here.
Pick: Lions -3.5 (-110)
Lions vs. Texans Over/Under Prediction
I'm not going to overthink this one.
Assuming the roof is closed in NRG Stadium, these are perfect conditions for a shootout. Games involving Jared Goff that have been played indoors over the last three seasons have seen the over cash at a 65.5% rate over a 19-game sample size. Outside of playing in a monsoon in Green Bay last week in which they scored 24 points, Detroit had averaged 43 points per game in its previous four games.
C.J. Stroud is coming off a poor performance by his standards, but I love his chances of rebounding Sunday night with 10 days to prepare for a Lions defense that ranks 24th in yards per play allowed. There is a chance superstar wide receiver Nico Collins returns, which would be a massive boost for the offense, but regardless, we knew it would be an uphill battle to scheme properly during a short week before traveling to New York last week after the loss of Stefon Diggs for the season.
Stroud will also have the assistance of a rushing attack this week. The Lions stuff rushes at or behind the line of scrimmage at just a 17% rate (21st). Overall, Detroit ranks 27th in yards per carry allowed this season, giving up 4.8 yards per rush attempt.
Against a Lions defense that misses tackles at one of the five-highest rates when defending the run, Joe Mixon will limit the number of times this offense faces long down-and-distance situations.
Given how well the Lions offense is playing, combined with the potential efficiency of the Houston offense, I like the winning team Sunday night to get at least 30 points with the loser not far behind.
Pick: Over 49.5 (-112)
Lions vs. Texans Player Prop: Sam LaPorta Receptions
Sam LaPorta has had a decent two weeks, but the fun is over. Jameson Williams is back, which means the Lions tight end will likely return to a tertiary role at best.
Through Detroit's first six games, LaPorta had an 8.4% target share. He was tied for fourth on the team with Khalif Raymond. Tim Patrick and David Montgomery were within 0.5%. The pecking order was clear for Detroit: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, everybody else. LaPorta managed 15 targets over the first six games of the season.
Williams was suspended for Weeks 8-9 due to PEDs. LaPorta saw his best volume of the season in Week 8, earning six targets and a massive 31.6% target share. He cooled off in Week 9, as the Lions leaned on the ground game in rainy conditions, but he still tied for second on the team in target share. I'm expecting LaPorta to revert back to the role we saw in Detroit's first six games.
Houston has excelled against tight ends. They've allowed the third-fewest targets, the fewest receptions and the fewest yards per game to the position.
Pick: Sam LaPorta Under 3.5 Receptions (-115)
