In a newly released analysis of four leading U.S. sportsbooks, the sports odds intelligence firm Bettormetrics found that DraftKings' mobile sports betting markets were suspended for the least amount of time during the 2023-2024 NFL season, while bet365's were suspended for the longest duration.
Bettormetrics defines the inverse of periods where betting is suspended while live odds are updated as uptime, with DraftKings averaging 96.1% uptime during an average NFL game, followed by FanDuel at 90.55%, BetMGM at 86.36% and bet365 at 85.55%.
Squaring its internal metrics with American Gaming Association estimates for NFL betting handle, Bettormetrics estimated that suspensions in betting cost these four sportsbooks a combined $160.7 million in revenue last NFL season, with that figure expected to swell to $220 million this season if no significant improvements are made.
“Without the proper suspension strategy, it’s extremely difficult for BetMGM and Bet365 to catch up to FanDuel and DraftKings,” Bettormetrics Chief Revenue Officer Sabin Brooks said in a press release, while Robert Urwin, the company’s co-founder and CEO, added that second-place FanDuel “could make up the distance with a few tweaks in their suspension and trading strategies.”
When asked by Action Network what these tweaks might consist of, Urwin replied, "It's a complex picture, but if you take the NFL and look at the suspension strategy of FanDuel and DraftKings, DraftKings suspends substantially less than FanDuel, so we're able to look at those moments when FanDuel was suspended when they shouldn't be. There are periods when all bookmakers should be suspended — like after a touchdown, when they rebase their prices. But what we've observed are the periods where, really, perhaps they shouldn't have been [suspended].”
While, as Urwin notes, there are instances in a game where it’s advantageous for sportsbooks to briefly suspend betting, sometimes it comes down to a given operator’s appetite for risk.
"Trading directors, some will be defensive and say they wanted to be suspended because there was too much risk in the market at that time,” said Urwin. "FanDuel, interestingly, their suspension strategy has moved around. They were going toe to toe with DraftKings last season and became a bit more defensive as the season went on. If you're the only person with a price up for people to take, you're exposing yourself to some degree. You're going to attract some sharp clients who have their own idea for what the price should be and they're willing to take you on.”
Urwin went on to encapsulate this mindset thusly: “We don’t want to be the first person up, but we don’t want to be the last person.”
DraftKings has shown no such wariness, however.
“DraftKings, they're so confident in their pricing strategy that they're not afraid to step into the breach,” said Urwin.
Bet365 Has ‘Quite a Bit of Catching Up to Do’
Bettormetrics has been analyzing various sportsbooks’ NFL performance for four seasons, and DraftKings has stood out as one that has improved markedly over time.
And now that DraftKings has announced its intent to purchase Simplebet, presumably forcing its rivals to either build their own microbetting tech or find another provider, the gap between it and all others — save perhaps for FanDuel — figures to widen.
"It's clearly bad news for the competition,” said Brooks of the proposed purchase. “I’m sure FanDuel is making progress, but those two seem to be pulling a long way ahead of the pack, and it only stands to get worse for everyone else."
Given its frontrunner status in the United Kingdom, where it’s long offered in-game wagering on sports like soccer and tennis, bet365’s relatively poor showing in Bettormetrics’ analysis was “quite a surprise,” said Urwin, who added that the operator has “got quite a bit of catching up to do” in the U.S.
But Sabin thinks that if anyone can give DraftKings and FanDuel a run for their money in the U.S., it’s bet365.
"We look at America and see a duopoly with DraftKings and FanDuel and think the company that might catch them is bet365,” he said. “Denise Coates (who owns bet365) is one of the richest women in the U.K. We think she'll want to invest heavily in the States, but it's a bit of a surprise to see them trailing so poorly.
“We met with bet365 a few months ago and the first thing they said was, 'We know we're not good at American sports.' But I wouldn't be surprised if they really closed the gap this season. It's go large or go home for them, and I think it makes sense, because why would they pay so much tax in the U.K. when they can take those profits and invest them state by state in America?"
