Each Tuesday, FanDuel runs a popular promotion that allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2021 was 2.44, you will receive an average of $12.20 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run-yes prop.
However, given that home runs are down considerably in the new run environment, Dinger Tuesdays are not nearly as +EV as they've been in years past and thus I'm lowering my volume on games picked for now.
I'm choosing to focus on games with higher totals, bad pitchers and in hitter's ballparks. Home runs are down 25% when compared to the 2016-21 data.
Almost 20% of games this season are ending without a home run. That's about 2x the rate from 2016-21. pic.twitter.com/LfNyIz2kWA
— Ballpark Pal (@BallparkPal) May 10, 2022
If you want to learn more on how Dinger Tuesday works, here’s an explainer.
Here’s my favorite selections for Tuesday’s slate:
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Rowdy Tellez +340
Cincinnati is one of the biggest hitters parks in all of baseball, especially for home run production. Reds' starter Hunter Greene has allowed a 17.7% barrel rate through his young MLB career, which is one of the highest in all of baseball and nearly triple the league average of 6.7%.
Tellez had struggled with hitting fastballs in years past, but he's made clear improvements hitting them this year. Tellez has a 21.9% barrel rate on 73 balls in play this year, which puts him fourth in all of baseball's qualified hitters behind Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout.
A great park and opposing pitcher matchup make Tellez my favorite play of the day.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals, 7:05 p.m. ET
Pick: Starling Marte +730
Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst starters in all of baseball, by nearly every metric. The Mets have to be the look here, and Nationals Park is a sneaky hitters park that consistently ranks in the top eight in park factors. With improved warm weather on the East Coast, I'm expecting the ball to fly against Corbin on Tuesday.
Pete Alonso makes a lot of sense as a pick and is someone that is at the top of the odds board, but I'm going further down the board here with Starling Marte. He had a slow start to the 2022 season, but has an OPS over 1.100 in the last week. He's really starting to find his stroke and projects much better against the left-handed pitching of Corbin.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Aaron Judge +300
One of the biggest chalk picks on the board tonight is Aaron Judge, and for good reason. The Yankees slugger gets a bad left-handed pitcher in Yusei Kikuchi on the mound for Toronto.
Judge has a barrel rate of 26%, the best in all of MLB. His hard hit rate is also 63%, indicating that he's seeing the ball really well early in the season. Kikuchi threw six innings of one run ball against the Yankees lineup last week, and I don't see him repeating that on Tuesday night.
Given the short fences at Yankee Stadium, there could be plenty of homers in this game despite the low total.
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET
Pick: Wander Franco +520
This a game with a ton of appealing options further down the board and that's why I'm going to stay away from the big favorites like Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.
I wanted to pick a Tampa Bay player because I bet the Rays and think that Angels starter Reid Detmers (92 stuff+ per Eno Sarris of The Athletic) is pretty overrated.
The obvious choice is Mike Zunino, who mashes left-handed pitching and has a 10% barrel rate. But I'm going to look further down the board and grab Franco, who doesn't walk or strikeout much and puts a lot of balls in play.
Franco might not have the barrel rate — he's at 7.4% overall — but he has the pedigree against left-handed pitching with a 1.136 OPS against them this season. And later in the game, he's likely to see right-handed pitching and is more than capable of hitting from the left side of the plate too.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, 9:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Joc Pederson +540
Pederson is one of the best hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching and should get the start for the Giants given the Rockies starter, Antonio Senzatela.
While I'm always tempted to back C.J. Cron because he's been a favorite and successful Dinger Tuesday pick in the past, I'm taking Pederson. He has just 55 batted balls, but 11 have been barreled, good for one of the best barrel rates in the sport thus far of hitters with at least 50 batted balls.
Pederson has a career high 55% hard-hit rate and has a career .833 OPS against RHP. Senzatela has an xERA of 6.78 and doesn't have the stuff to blow it past Pederson, who will be hunting homers tonight.
