Each Tuesday, FanDuel runs a popular promotion that allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2021 was 2.44, you will receive an average of $12.20 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop. Even though home runs have been down in the 2022 season thus far, the promotion remains +EV, and there are signs that homers are trending up in the warmer months again.
If you want to learn more on how Dinger Tuesday works, here’s an explainer.
Here are my favorite selections for Tuesday’s slate:
Guardians at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Josh Naylor +560
I know that the wind is blowing in from left field at more than 10 mph, but this is still Coors Field and is the highest total on the board. For that reason, we have to play this game.
Shane Bieber has some home run regression coming, based on his 6.6% HR/FB rate. But that doesn't make up for the difference in pitcher quality with Bieber facing Antonio Senzatela, who is one of the worst regular starters in all of MLB.
The Guardians don't have a ton of power in the lineup, but Josh Naylor has seen improved barrel rates and now gets a favorable hitting environment at Coors. Naylor has an 8.6% barrel rate, best of his career and matches up well with Senzatela based on pitch mix.
The price isn't good enough for me to target Jose Ramirez, although Ramirez isn't a bad option either. It would probably surprise people to know that Ramirez (8.8%) actually has a very comparable barrel rate to Naylor (8.6%).
Marlins at Phillies, 7:05 p.m. ET
Pick: Bryce Harper +400
It is the month of June, which means I should probably pick Kyle Schwarber regardless of price and move on. But Schwarber isn't as good against lefties and is priced considerably shorter than his fellow lefty slugger Bryce Harper.
I usually look to target Rhys Hoskins against lefties too, but his price is all the way down below +300 and thus not worth a shot. I'm targeting Harper because he's down at +400 despite an elite 15.6% barrel rate in 2022.
While Zach Eflin has improved his hard-hit rate allowed, Miami starter Trevor Rogers has been barreled almost twice as much as last season thus far in 2022. He should struggle to keep the ball in the yard on a hot summer evening in Philadelphia.
Harper has a career .829 OPS against lefties and with a wind blowing slightly out to right field, there is a marginal home run boost for lefty hitters today.
Rays at Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET
Pick: Ji-Man Choi +560
I don't typically read a ton into these small sample pitcher vs. hitter splits, unless they are particularly extreme. In this case, Ji-Man Choi has had a ton of success against Yankees' ace Gerrit Cole. Choi is 10-for-23 with four home runs, 10 RBIs and a 1.639 OPS against Cole.
As shown by the five homers he allowed in Minnesota last week, Cole still has home run issues. Choi will be sitting on Cole's fastball and clearly sees it better than most hitters do. It's not just a bet on their history, but also Choi has an excellent 13.3% barrel rate, the second best of his career.
Aaron Judge is never a bad option given his current form, but I think there will be plenty of homers at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday and Choi's history against Cole will hopefully pay off.
Orioles at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET
Pick: Ryan Mountcastle +440
Yusei Kikuchi starts for Toronto on Tuesday night and he's had home run issues for most of his Major League career. Kikuchi has allowed 1.4 HR/9 this season and that's right in line with his metrics from Seattle last year, when he allowed 1.5 HR/9.
Mountcastle is in the midst of a breakout third season in the bigs with a career high in both barrel and hard-hit rate. His 13.9% barrel rate is more than double the MLB average and has steadily trended upward in each of the last couple years. He doesn't have any documented split differences in his career statistic, but he is a power hitting right hander with a favorable matchup with the lefty Kikuchi on Tuesday.
The Blue Jays should have plenty of success against Jordan Lyles, who gives up a ton of hard contact. But none of the Blue Jays top sluggers are priced in a way that makes them appealing to bet on. I'm getting the best power hitter on the Orioles at a much better price.
Padres at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. ET
Pick: Christopher Morel +420
The wind is blowing out to center field at Wrigley tonight and temperatures are extremely hot in Chicago. That means the ball should be flying and no park will play as more of a hitter's park on Tuesday besides Coors Field. The prices in this game reflect the hitting conditions — with four hitters priced shorter than +250 to homer.
Despite the cheaper prices, this is still a must-target game because you're likely to see enough homers to overcome the slashed prices and make a lot of your $25 wager back in free bets.
Morel has nine barrels in his first 74 batted balls, a 12.2% barrel rate. Among all players in this game, only Patrick Wisdom and Willson Contreras have a higher barrel rate. Sean Manaea doesn't have overpowering stuff and at no point in his rookie campaign thus far has Morel looked overmatched at the plate.
Reds at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Joey Votto +410
Votto cashed for us last week against a subpar pitcher for the Diamondbacks. I'm going back to the Reds star first baseman once again this week. Instead of lefty Tyler Gilbert, Votto gets a right-hander with Zach Davies.
Votto has been the model of consistency in MLB hitting for more than a decade now, but went into a prolonged slump at the beginning of this season. Since the middle of May, though, Votto has turned it around. His barrel rate is back at 11.2%, the second highest of his statcast career (since 2015).
Given that Votto didn't have any barrels in his first 40 batted balls, the fact he's produced 12 in the last 60 or so is even more impressive. Few hitters are seeing the ball as well as Votto and he has the second highest barrel rate on the Reds.
