Sports Equinox SZN continues with a full day's worth of action this Monday.
In honor of the sports stars aligning, our analysts are highlighting one of their top picks in each of the major sports in play this evening.
Monday Sports Equinox Picks
Pacers vs. Nets Pick 🏀
Matt Moore: Usually in this spot I'm going for Mike Budenholzer against division teams. Since taking over the Bucks, Budenholzer is 58-9 straight up (86.6%) and 47-20 (70.1%) against the spread (ATS) when facing Central Division opponents. That includes 12-4 ATS in the first 20 games when numbers are often softer, and 15-8 (65%) ATS as a double-digit home favorite.
However, since things have been a little wonky with the dogs this season and the Bucks are undefeated — making this a less than ideal spot vs. a plucky Pistons team — I'm going with the under.
Under in Bucks home division games are 19-15 (44%) and the Bucks defense is No. 1 in the league schedule-adjusted at Dunks And Threes. Detroit has started to show some offensive chops, but Milwaukee should put the clamps on. If the Bucks lose, it's because their offense can't make shots.
I'll chase the steam and play the under 224.5 from an opener of 227, as I make this game 218.5 (check real-time NBA odds here).
Kings vs. Blues Pick 🏒
Jonny Lazarus: The Los Angeles Kings, despite some lackluster goaltending, have looked pretty solid this season. And I'm confident both netminders will find their game and turn things around.
The Kings have the edge over the Blues because Los Angeles is the third-best team in the league when it comes to allowing high-danger chances against, giving up only 9.20 against per game. The Blues are the third-worst team in the league in this same category, giving up 12.27 chances per game.
The Kings have momentum after their win against the Maple Leafs, while the Blues' confidence might be lacking after their recent loss to the Canadiens.
Astros vs. Phillies Pick ⚾
Astros F5 (to -125) | |
Sean Zerillo: You can read my full breakdown here, but let's dive right into the picks: I projected the Astros as 57.2% favorites (-134 implied) for the first five innings (F5) and as 55% favorites (-122 implied) for the full Game 3.
With that in mind, there is value in the Astros' first-half moneyline, but I doubt the full-game moneyline comes into range on either side. You can play the Astros F5 moneyline — in addition to their first three innings (F3) moneyline — up to -125 (55.6% implied). Slightly beyond my usual 2% edge recommendation, but those are my favorite bets for Game 3.
The F3 play maximizes our opportunity to take a position against Noah Syndergaard — he could be out of the game by the fourth inning, whether he pitches well. Also: I need the market to come down slightly to bet an F5 Over 4 (projected 4.38) at -112 or better.
Bengals vs. Browns Pick 🏈
Chris Raybon: This is about all you can ask of the Browns from a situational perspective.
At 2-5 and needing a win to save their season, they'll be the more desperate team and will be playing in front of a raucous Dawg Pound. Their opponent just lost its best player on offense, is struggling to stop the run on defense, and has found ways to lose in these spots for the better part of more than two decades.
According to our Action Labs data, divisional road favorites that have covered 70% or more of their games have gone just 46-71-2 (39%) against the spread (ATS) since 2005, failing to cover by 1.75 points per game.
The Browns have also had some bad luck, which tends to create value. According to our NFL Luck Rankings, the Browns rank 30th in luck while the Bengals rank 17th, a discrepancy of 13 places. A luck differential of 10 or more places this season has yielded an ATS record of 25-14 (64%).
I'd bet this to +3 (check real-time NFL odds here).
