Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott leads the way as we run down our best Week 15 prop bets.
Already one of the best bets around when it comes to rushing volume, Elliott has recently added "elite passing back" to his resume. Since coming out of the Week 8 bye, only Christian McCaffrey has more RB targets, receptions and receiving yards than Elliott.
That's where we start our picks, but we've got three other value plays for you this week, as well.
Be sure to check out more prop bet coverage at Bet the Prop, and follow us on Twitter for dozens more picks all Sunday morning.
We're coming off a down week at 3-4, but overall we've done well at exposing the inefficiencies in the prop market:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 214-96 (67%)
- Article picks: 41-21 (66%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 287-203 (59%)
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Averaging five receptions for 38 yards on the year, there's no doubt this is a big number to chase for Elliott, but the Colts are the team to do it against.
- Indianapolis yields 7.2 receptions to RBs per game, the most in the league.
- They give up an average of 55.1 receiving yards to the position, fifth-most.
Expect the Cowboys to take full advantage of this matchup and feed Elliott through the air early and often.
That was the gameplan for the Texans last week, as Houston fed Lamar Miller fed a season-high six targets against the Colts.
Before that it was T.J. Yeldon (8 targets for 29 yards), Kenyan Drake (6-64), Leonard Fournette (5-56) and Jalen Richard (8-50) all exploiting Indy's biggest weakness.
Dak Prescott shot an eye-popping 13 targets Elliott's way last week, and against an offense capable of scoring at home, he should be busy again.
I'd play this number up to 43.5, and at the current line would pay up to -122.
Lions RB LeGarrette Blount
Under 43.5 Rushing yards (-115)
The Lions offense lost its roar after rookie Kerryon Johnson went down. Over the last three weeks, Detroit ranks:
- 28th in yards per play
- 21st in plays per game
- 27th in yards per game
- 23rd in rushing yards per game
Volume is again a concern this week with the Lions 3-point underdogs on the road against a Bills defense allowing 4.0 yards per carry, 11th best in the league.
More concerning for Blount is the emergence of fourth-year man Zach Zenner, who matched the veteran's 12 carries last week against the Cardinals.
Zenner took over for an ineffective Blount in the second half and put up 54 yards (4.5 YPC), making his running mate's mark of 2.8 YPC look rather pedestrian.
There's reason to believe this is something closer to a timeshare going forward.
I'd play this number to 39.5, and at the current number, I'd pay up to -130 juice.
Bengals QB Jeff Driskel
Over 208.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Sean Koerner is projecting 237 passing yards for Driskel.
Yes, it's Jeff Driskel, and yes, the Raiders yield the 10th-fewest passing yards in the league, but this number is meager and more than attainable against Oakland.
- They give up an average of 249 passing yards a game.
- 11 of 13 QBs to face the Raiders have passed for at least 222 yards.
- With 11 sacks, the Raiders boast by far the worst pass rush in the league (the second-worst team has 22).
While a sub-200 game is always in the range of outcomes when you're dealing with a QB of Driskel's caliber, there is just too much value at this low number.
If this number rises — and it will — it would have to be pushing 220 yards before I'd reconsider.
Washington WR Jamison Crowder
Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This line from Sportsbook.ag is being weighted by Crowder's 79-yard TD in garbage against the Giants last week.
Take away that play, and he had just one catch for eight yards on six targets. And before you cry volume on those six targets, note that just one of those looks came after Josh Johnson took over for Mark Sanchez to start the third quarter.
Even if Johnson suddenly starts looking Crowder's way, Jacksonville is far from a get-right spot — the Jags allow 7.4 yards per target to opposing WRs, the third-best mark in the league.
I'd play this number down to 43.5, and at the current line, would be willing to pay the vig up to -122.
