NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Panthers at Cardinals
 | |
Sean Koerner: I would project this total closer to 45 points if Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins were at 100% health. Unfortunately, even if both can suit up Sunday, that likely would not be the case — especially since Murray would be playing through an ankle injury, which would limit his rushing and scrambling ability.
It seems likely the Cardinals will play it safe and hold out both playmakers this week. Especially after decidedly beating the 49ers without their stud QB-WR duo, the Cardinals should be able to beat a Panthers team that's starting former XFL star P.J. Walker without them.
I like the idea of locking this in early, because if Murray and/or Hopkins are ruled out (again), this total would likely drop closer to 41.5 points (check real-time NFL odds here) but I'd only play it to 43.5 for now.
Seahawks at Packers
 | |
Chris Raybon: With Russell Wilson returning after a full week of practice while Aaron Rodgers failed to practice all week, this is a spot to back the Seahawks.
On offense, we know the Seahawks want to run the ball and get it to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett when they drop back to pass. That gives them a beautiful matchup, as the Packers defense is ranked 22nd in DVOA against the run as well as 22nd and 23rd against No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers, respectively.
In 24 games dating back to the start of last season, the Seahawks have only lost five by more than three points.
And according to our Action Labs data, as road underdogs in games started by Wilson, the Seahawks have covered two-thirds of the time.
Seahawks at Packers
| |
Raheem Palmer: Russell Wilson is back at quarterback for the Seahawks, and the drop-off from Wilson to Geno Smith is about as big of a drop-off as any other quarterback. You could also say the same about the drop-off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love who comes off a game against the Chiefs in which he completed 19 of 34 passes for just 190 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Rodgers missed practice the entire week due to COVID-19, and while he has been cleared to play this weekend, two whole weeks without football won't bode well for this team. A bet on the Seahawks is essentially a bet on Wilson vs. a rusty Rodgers, which I’m willing to take.
Outside the quarterback news, the Seahawks have some other advantages in this matchup, most notably on offense where their run-heavy attack should exploit a Packers defense that is 26th in Defensive Success Rate (47.7%), 20th in Drop-back Success Rate (49.5%), 26th in Rushing EPA/play and 28th in Rushing Success Rate (44.6%).
This defense has played well recently, but for a unit that is just 26th in pass rush win rate, regression is eminent — I think it starts here against the Seahawks.
