Editor's Note: Our expert's guidance for his Week 16 pick remains the same as of Friday afternoon. We will update this story before Sunday's games kick off if there is any new information that changes his advice.
Another week where the most popular pick went down as a big favorite. This time it was Arizona losing at Detroit. A team fighting for the No. 1 seed got beat down by a team playing for the first pick in the draft.
Just another week in the NFL.
I liked Arizona as the best play last week and still would given what we knew. Holding on to them that long to lose to Detroit is a tough beat if you went with that decision.
Planning has become somewhat of a fruitless endeavor in survivor pools. The normal chaos of an NFL season is already hard to predict. Now, with large chunks of rosters missing games due to COVID protocols, it's even tougher.
It's a holiday weekend but it is vital to stay on top of the news before making your final selection.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Assuming no postponements, there are three games this week before Sunday. There is the normal Thursday night game and two games on Saturday.
The good news is I don't particularly like any of those teams as survivor plays. So you may be able to punt off the decisions until Sunday morning.
What are my favorite plays this week? Let's find out. Here are the projected win percentages for the final three weeks of the season:
Here are the best options this week along with the key stats to know.
The Chargers are projected to be the most popular pick this week at 25%. They go on the road to face a Texans team with not much to play for.
That sounds eerily like the situation Arizona had last week. The two games have nothing to do with each other, though, and the Chargers still have positive expected value this week.
However, there are four other teams with higher expected value this week. The Chiefs are among them right now, although they have the most question marks surrounding them right now due to COVID protocols.
The Cowboys are a great play this week as only 4% of entries are taking them and they have the second-highest win probability on the board.
The Eagles are a viable play this week against the Giants as well. This is their best chance to win in the next three games unless the Cowboys rest their starters in Week 18.
The Buccaneers and Packers are both teams with Super Bowl aspirations but teams I'd avoid this week in survivor pools.
With the Buccaneers, I'd much rather wait one more week until they play the Jets and pick somebody else this week.
It's much riskier to pass on the Packers because they could rest against Detroit in the final game, but my simulations like the Browns' chances in Green Bay more than the market does.
If you're looking for a really off-the-wall team, I present the Denver Broncos. They are on the road in Las Vegas, but my model has been high on them most of the year and still likes them with or without Teddy Bridgewater.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington Football Team)
Dallas is the best pick this week. The Cowboys are low-owned and I don't want to use them in either of their final two games.
