Sports fans and bettors are in for a treat on Thursday night — particularly if you are a fan of teams in Houston and Philadelphia.
While Game 5 of the World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies takes place in the City of Brotherly Love, the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans meet on Thursday Night Football down in Houston.
With these two cities taking center stage tonight, we got our top betting minds — both for MLB and the NFL — together to put together their top bets on the respective games.
Below, you will find Sean Zerillo's top bet for tonight's World Series matchup, as well as Chris Raybon's pick on Eagles-Texans, plus where you can parlay those two bets together for optimal value.
Eagles vs. Texans Odds
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -106 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -820 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -114 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +570 |
Chris Raybon: Davis Mills has failed to clear 152 passing yards in two of his past three games and now faces an Eagles defense allowing 206.1 passing yards per game to opposing QBs, fifth-fewest.
The Eagles have held six of the seven QBs they’ve faced under their passing-yard prop:
- Week 1: Jared Goff: 215 passing yards, under 249.5
- Week 2: Kirk Cousins: 221 passing yards: under 256.5
- Week 3: Carson Wentz: 211 passing yards, under 253.5
- Week 4: Trevor Lawrence: 174 passing yards, under 247.5
- Week 5: Kyler Murray: 250 passing yards, over 246.5
- Week 6: Cooper Rush: 181 passing yards, under 213.5
- Week 8: Kenny Pickett: 191 passing yards, under 220.5
On average, opposing passers are falling short of their yardage prop by 34.9 yards against the Eagles. The Eagles defense ranks second in DVOA against the pass, per Football Outsiders. They also rank second in Extra Points Added per dropback (-0.163), and third in passing success rate allowed (41.8%), per RBsDM.com.
Eagles -14 | Texans +14
Mills will be without the services of Nico Collins (groin), whose 304 receiving yards represent 20.2% of Mills’ total passing yardage this season. On top of that, Brandin Cooks suspiciously missed practice Tuesday and Wednesday after a cryptic tweet expressing frustration with not being traded. It’s possible that Cooks is trying to negotiate his release from the team and will not play Thursday. Cooks leads the Texans with 354 receiving yards and a 23.6% share of MIlls’ total passing yardage this season.
I’m projecting Mills for a median of 200 passing yards on Thursday night. If Cooks were to miss, that number would fall south of 200.
Pick: Davis Mills Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-120 at BetMGM) | Bet to 203.5
Astros vs. Phillies Game 5 Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -158 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +134 |
Sean Zerillo: Noah Syndergaard was no longer Thor this season. He's lost more than 3.5 mph off his fastball compared to peak levels. In turn, his whiff rates have dipped, and his strikeout rate plummeted by about eight percent.
The Phillies tinkered with his pitch mix after the trade deadline; eliminating his four-seamer and having Syndergaard focus on a sinker/slider mix (with an occasional curveball) to righties while re-allocating the majority of his slider usage to changeups against lefties.
Justin Verlander may have stayed in a touch too long in Game 1. Overall, it was a poor outing (5 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 5 K) from the likely AL Cy Young winner. Verlander allowed eight hard-hit balls, and the Phillies only whiffed once against his two breaking balls.
Still, he was entirely in command of that outing (perfect through three innings) until the wheels came off completely.
Astros -158 | Phillies +134
Houston's key relievers — Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly — all pitched on Wednesday, but none threw more than 19 pitches, and each should be available and finely tuned for Game 5.
The trio has pitched a significant portion of Houston's high-leverage relief innings in this series. Still, with multiple days off between appearances — thanks to a rainout and a blowout loss — they have had sufficient recovery time.
The Phillies used five relief pitchers the day before a bullpen game. Andrew Bellatii (nine pitches) appeared for the second consecutive day.
The Astros' bullpen gives them the advantage in the late innings. However, the projection gap (2.96 to 3.54 Model Weighted ERA) is still less significant than the differential between the starting pitchers.
I projected the Astros as 59% favorites (-144 implied) for the first five innings (F5) on Thursday and as 56.7% favorites (-131 implied) for Game 5.
The Phillies' full-game moneyline is actionable at +142 (41.3% implied) or better, at a two percent edge compared to my number. I don't see value in their F5 moneyline, but you can look to add a live bet on the Phillies when Syndergaard exits around the fourth inning.
Concerning the total, you can bet an Under 7.5 to -110 (projected 6.99) or look to bet a Live Under 9.5 or 9 if either starter allows early runs. Both managers should be aggressive with relatively well-rested bullpens.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks
- Davis Mills Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-120 at BetMGM) | Bet to 203.5
- Astros-Phillies Under 7.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Best Parlay Odds (+252 at FanDuel):
- Davis Mills Under 217.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- Under 7.5 (-115)
