Trae Young knocked down a killer three pointer to take the Hawks to a Game 6 in their first round series against the Celtics in the NBA playoffs.
But for Thursday night, the Action Network's set of algorithms are less bullish on the All-Star guard.
The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Trae Young Player Prop Projection
*Odds and projections as of Friday afternoon according to BetMGM
While Young has had a solid last three games, on the season overall, the former No. 5 overall pick has notably regressed. And yet, because of his recent play — and the game-winning shot on Tuesday — he's being overvalued by the marketplace overall.
The guard is projected to put up 25.06 points tonight vs. the Celtics, but the total on the market is slotted at 27.5. The best price attainable is at BetMGM at u27.5 points (-105).
That particular line provides a roughly 10% betting edge. Effectively, you'll be receiving a 10% discount. Another way to think of it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 10% in expected value.
Do keep in mind that these models work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet over a long sample size.
