There's uncertainty in the 2022 Super Bowl prop market with both teams' starting tight ends contending with sprained MCLs they suffered on Championship Sunday.
The Rams' Tyler Higbee and Bengals' C.J. Uzomah are shaping up to be game-time decisions due to matching knee injuries that would have likely sidelined them for multiple games in the regular season — but this is the Super Bowl.
Uzomah has made it known that he intends to play through the injury, while Higbee may try to suit up, even if he’s unable to practice all week. As of writing mid-week, I’m not projecting either tight end for a full workload in the Super Bowl. Instead, below is how I’m currently projecting their routes run percentage compared to their typical routes run percentage.
Tyler Higbee, C.J. Uzomah Projections
Rams TEs
| Tight End | Typical | Projected | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 88% | 60% | -28% |
| Kendall Blanton | 10% | 40% | +30% |
Bengals TEs
| Tight End | Typical | Projected | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Uzomah | 83% | 65% | -18% |
| Drew Sample | 16% | 35% | +19% |
I will be adjusting these projections based on any updates we get on Higbee and Uzomah. In the event either is ruled out for the game, the projections will be much more straightforward.
Below are tables that capture how my model will adjust for their teammates' receiving yard projections should Higbee or Uzomah be ruled out of Super Bowl LV.
Rams Receiving Projections with Tyler Higbee Out
| Player | Diff |
|---|---|
| Kendall Blanton | +14.6 |
| Cooper Kupp | +4.4 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | +2.6 |
| Brycen Hopkins | +2.1 |
| Van Jefferson | +2.0 |
| Ben Skowronek | +1.5 |
| Cam Akers | +0.7 |
| Sony Michel | +0.3 |
| Tyler Higbee | -28.2 |
Bengals Receiving Projections with C.J. Uzomah Out
| Player | Diff |
|---|---|
| Drew Sample | +12.4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +3.1 |
| Tee Higgins | +2.9 |
| Joe Mixon | +2.1 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | +2.1 |
| Tyler Boyd | +1.8 |
| Samaje Perine | +1.2 |
| Trent Taylor | +1.0 |
| Mike Thomas | +0.5 |
| Chris Evans | +0.1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | -27.1 |
