With the 2018 Ryder Cup starting Friday at Le Golf National in Paris, France, we've asked our crew golf experts to give their favorite bets of the weekend.
There are several intriguing Ryder Cup rookies, and one of our experts thinks there's value on which team will take an early lead.
Enjoy, and good luck with your wagers this weekend.
Justin Bailey: Tommy Fleetwood Top European Rookie
Odds: +210
Le Golf National is a precision course, and Fleetwood typically excels on them. He's hit 66.4% of fairways and 72.2% of greens over the past 75 weeks. Fleetwood also trumps the group in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach. It also doesn’t hurt that Fleetwood won the Open de France at this course just last year.
John Ewing: Europe to Win Ryder Cup
Odds: +150 (three-way results)
I'm betting this for three main reasons:
- Tiger just won the Tour Championship, so these odds are probably inflated
- The U.S. hasn't won on European soil since 1993
- When Tiger and Phil are on the team, the U.S. is 1-6 in Ryder Cups
Jason Sobel: U.S. to Take the Lead First
Odds: -130
Four years ago, when the Tom Watson-led U.S. team got trounced in Europe, it still held the advantage in both morning fourball sessions, which underscores the point that even when Americans are outclassed, this format suits them well.
Guess what? This week’s event will similarly start with a best-ball session.
Going back a decade, the U.S. owns a 6-2-2 advantage in these sessions, which should spell good news for Friday morning.
Throw in the fact that this team includes nine — yes, nine! — of the top 17 players in the PGA Tour’s birdie average statistic this season, and this should be a recipe for another early lead.
Joshua Perry: Justin Thomas Top U.S. Rookie
Odds: -135
He played well at the course this summer, and I think he’ll just get more opportunities than Tony Finau or Bryson DeChambeau. There’s a chance Thomas plays four or five times, while it’s tough to see the other two getting more than three matches in.
The only hesitation is a slight wrist injury for Thomas: He had it taped up at the Tour Championship, but it didn’t seem to cause him too much trouble.
Drew ("Sleeze") Stoltz: Bryson DeChambeau Over 1.5 points
Odds: -165
I’ve said all along I think Bryson will be Tiger's partner in the fourball competition, which I expect will net him 1.5 points at a minimum.
Also, because of DeChambeau's performance in the FedExCup Playoffs and also because of his youth, I'll disagree with Josh slightly: I expect Bryson to sit out just one match, giving him four chances to exceed 1.5 points. He will be a very tough out in singles.
Bryan Mears: Jon Rahm Top Spaniard
Odds: -140
Rahm just has to beat Sergio Garcia for this prop to hit, and I think it's the most profitable way to fade Garcia, who has been in absolutely terrible form this year.
To bet under on Garcia's 2.5-point total, you'll have to lay -170 odds, and to bet over on Rahm's 1.5 total, you'll have to lay -165. I'd rather just treat this as a matchup prop and take the nice -140 odds on the talented young golfer.
Scott T. Miller: Francesco Molinari Top Continental European Scorer
Odds: +325
Molinari's competition for this prop is Rahm, Stenson, Garcia, Alex Noren and Thorbjorn Olesen. In other words, he doesn't have to outscore many of the top European golfers — Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose and Fleetwood — for you to cash this prop.
Molinari's game is a perfect fit for this course — he has three career runner-up finishes at Le Golf National — and his steadiness will be a big asset in this emotional event.
Rahm has all the talent in the world, but I don't mind fading the volatile (and inaccurate) Euro in this spot and on a course that historically has rewarded precision off the tee.
I'm gobbling up all the Molinari shares I can get this week.
