So, how did you enjoy that two-and-a-half-week offseason?
Technically, it will have been 17 days, 13 hours and, oh, about 15 minutes or so between the end of the 2018-19 PGA Tour season and the beginning of the 2019-20 PGA Tour campaign.
Depending on how we count a few quasi-sanctioned events (Hero World Challenge? Presidents Cup? The Olympics?), there are somewhere in the neighborhood of a half-a-hundred tournaments on the upcoming schedule, starting with this week’s A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier.
That leaves plenty of opportunities for plenty of players, as many of the same ol’ superstars will continue ranking amongst the world’s best and some up-and-comers will make their presence felt.
If you’re part of a season-long fantasy league that drafts before the opener, or if you’re joining a pool with a Thursday deadline, I salute you. Many leagues and pools – OK, most of ‘em – don’t start until the calendar turns over. Collectively, we usually have to finish off fantasy football before we move on to golf, but I admire those who kick things off this week.
Speaking of football, it was some of our Action Network pigskin preview content – notably, Sean Koerner’s tiered fantasy rankings – which inspired me to create a similar list for the impending golf season.
Whether you’re starting now or waiting a few more months, the following tiered rankings should offer a unique breakdown for not only how every PGA Tour member stacks up for this season, but where we can find some separation between them.
Of the 239 players (and yes, this number is always fluid) with some sort of membership – either full status, conditional or medical – I’ve divided them into 10 tiers based on potential for the 2019-20 campaign.
Tier 1
Rory McIlroy
Simply put, he ticks all the right boxes to stand head and shoulders above the competition. McIlroy’s overall strokes gained number last season was the best we’d seen in a decade. He won three times – and while none of them were majors, two were big-money events.
And since you’re wondering, yes, I did consider adding Brooks Koepka to this tier based on his major championship superiority, but let’s remember: This ranking is about the future, not the past. I like Rory’s chance to separate himself from the pack in the next 12 months.
Tier 2
Brooks Koepka
Justin Thomas
Jon Rahm
Two of these names will come as no surprise to those who have paid even the slightest bit of attention to the professional game over the past few years. The other one shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who’s watched more closely. Rahm is an elite-level talent – and he’s on the verge of some big-time results. With four top-10 in majors over the past two years, the soon-to-be 25-year-old is only gaining more confidence and experience the more he competes. He belongs up here with some of the world’s best.
Tier 3
Patrick Cantlay
Xander Schauffele
Tony Finau
Justin Rose
Dustin Johnson
The first three players here aren’t just in the same tier; I’d also place them in the same category: Consistent weekly performers who can win anyplace, anytime. I’ve got Cantlay with the biggest short-term upside of the trio, but it’s certainly a close race. I’d love a wager on Cantlay/Schauffele/Finau to win a 2019 major, though their 12 combined opportunities might come at something just slightly more than even-money.
As for the more well-established players in this tier, Rose turns 40 next summer and DJ is fresh off an end-of-season head-scratcher, but each is still worthy of inclusion here.
Tier 4
Hideki Matsuyama
Webb Simpson
Bryson DeChambeau
Patrick Reed
Sungjae Im
Rickie Fowler
Tommy Fleetwood
Paul Casey
Gary Woodland
Adam Scott
Matt Kuchar
Viktor Hovland
Jason Day
You’ll see the tiers start to increase in numbers as there becomes less separation between players further down the list. This one is still full of blue-chippers, featuring five players who are major champions and a half-dozen more who are on the short list of best players to have never won one. But of course, the most noteworthy names here are a pair of youngsters in Im and Hovland, each of whom I (and many others) expect to ascend into the next echelon very soon.
Fellow players and caddies have called Im a top-10 player in the making and Hovland wasn’t just impressive in limited exposure in the big leagues, he was impressive in final rounds, when it meant the most.
Tier 5
Jordan Spieth
Collin Morikawa
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Joaquin Niemann
Kevin Kisner
Cameron Smith
Marc Leishman
Byeong Hun An
Matthew Wolff
Jason Kokrak
Billy Horschel
Emiliano Grillo
Aaron Wise
Corey Conners
Abraham Ancer
Keith Mitchell
Charles Howell III
Chez Reavie
Andrew Putnam
Brandt Snedeker
Scottie Scheffler
Francesco Molinari
Tiger Woods
There’s admittedly a lot to unpack here. Spieth is the ultimate wildcard, a player who’s capable of winning multiple majors in a year or one who struggles just to get into contention.
Speaking of high floor-low ceiling types, Woods obviously offers the potential to still win some hefty hardware, though his limited playing schedule prevents him from being ranked higher, even if he’s healthy and motivated. In between them, this tier offers an amalgam of established performers, recent risers and impending stars. Morikawa and Wolff are already PGA Tour champions and it might not take long before Niemann and Scheffler join them.
Tier 6
Shane Lowry
Si Woo Kim
Sergio Garcia
Kyle Stanley
Ryan Moore
Alex Noren
Keegan Bradley
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Phil Mickelson
Scott Piercy
Adam Hadwin
Wyndham Clark
Ian Poulter
Sam Ryder
Sam Burns
Harold Varner III
Luke List
Kevin Na
J.T. Poston
Henrik Stenson
Brian Harman
Bubba Watson
Dylan Frittelli
Daniel Berger
Russell Knox
Joel Dahmen
Kristoffer Ventura
Cameron Champ
Mackenzie Hughes
Matt Wallace
Rory Sabbatini
Louis Oosthuizen
Ryan Palmer
C.T. Pan
Branden Grace
Beau Hossler
Max Homa
Brendan Steele
Bill Haas
Doug Ghim
Jason Dufner
Andrew Landry
Talor Gooch
Patrick Rodgers
Bud Cauley
Maverick McNealy
J.B. Holmes
Kevin Tway
Tyrrell Hatton
Troy Merritt
Martin Kaymer
Cameron Tringale
Austin Cook
Consider this a lengthy list of players who can potentially contend any week and wouldn’t be a shock if they were to win. What you’ll find in this tier is a combination of talented internationals who won’t necessarily play 25-30 times on the PGA Tour and U.S.-based stalwarts who will. Most in this group are high-floor, low ceiling guys, though the electrifying Champ owns an opportunity to be a hit-or-miss selection.
As for the freshman class, I’m expecting a solid opening season from Ventura, Ghim and McNealy, each of whom starred on the collegiate level before qualifying for the PGA Tour through the developmental circuit.
Tier 7
Jhonattan Vegas
Danny Willett
Brice Garnett
Nick Watney
Sepp Straka
Charley Hoffman
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Vaughn Taylor
Doc Redman
Roger Sloan
Jim Furyk
Graeme McDowell
Patton Kizzire
Denny McCarthy
J.J. Spaun
Zach Johnson
Jamie Lovemark
Kramer Hickok
Kevin Streelman
K.H. Lee
Pat Perez
Grayson Murray
Chesson Hadley
Nate Lashley
Rob Oppenheim
Dominic Bozzelli
Michael Gligic
Hank Lebioda
Jimmy Walker
Seung-Yul Noh
Brandon Hagy
Martin Laird
Lucas Bjerregaard
Danny Lee
Sung Kang
Bo Hoag
Sung Kang
Peter Uihlein
Charl Schwartzel
Russell Henley
Michael Thompson
Adam Long
Robby Shelton
Trey Mullinax
Tom Hoge
Kevin Chappell
Scott Harrington
Scott Brown
Nick Taylor
Stewart Cink
Michael Gellerman
Ryan Armour
Aaron Baddeley
Scott Stallings
Martin Trainer
Kelly Kraft
If you need ‘em, most of these guys should be decent lineup-fillers, though many have at least one mark against them – things like getting older, conditional status or limited experience. Some in this tier have dropped dramatically in recent years (Furyk and Johnson, for example), while others are just making a quick pit stop on their way to another level (Straka and Hickok to name a few).
Tier 8
Matt Every
Matthew NeSmith
Bronson Burgoon
Ryan Brehm
Peter Malnati
Robert Streb
Sebastian Munoz
Tom Lewis
Mark Hubbard
Seamus Power
Tyler Duncan
Matt Jones
Roberto Castro
Wes Roach
Adam Schenk
Brian Stuard
Brian Gay
Jim Knous
Ryan Blaum
Carlos Ortiz
Anirban Lahiri
Rhein Gibson
Chase Seiffert
Aaron Baddeley
Jim Herman
Brendon Todd
Richy Werenski
Xinjun Zhang
Harry Higgs
Fabian Gomez
Cameron Davis
Henrik Norlander
Tyler McCumber
Chris Stroud
Ted Potter Jr.
Josh Teater
Jonas Blixt
Zack Sucher
Cameron Percy
Hudson Swafford
Rafa Campos
If you’re drafting this deep in your leagues, well, you and I should probably be friends. There’s no better 19th-hole debate than which players deserve to be picked in the 17th round of your 12-team draft.
OK, maybe there’s a hint of sarcasm in there. But in all seriousness, if you are drafting this deep, be prepared, because most of your fellow fantasy leaguers won’t be. Taking a player like most of these above, each of whom – as they say in poker – has a chip and a chair can be advantageous over those who are drafting retired, injured or developmental tour players.
Tier 9
Luke Donald
D.J. Trahan
Joseph Bramlett
Shawn Stefani
James Hahn
Zac Blair
Nelson Ledesma
Johnson Wagner
Sebastian Cappelen
Michael Kim
Mark Anderson
David Hearn
Vince Covello
Lanto Griffin
Ben Taylor
Chris Baker
Hunter Mahan
Padraig Harrington
John Huh
Colt Knost
Harris English
Vincent Whaley
Chris Baker
Tim Wilkinson
Satoshi Kodaira
A mixture of familiar names and Korn Ferry grads here, though nobody who pops off the page as a must-own in any season-long leagues.
Sure, the chip-and-a-chair philosophy still applies, though it’s more difficult to envision any of these players contending at a handful of events or reaching the season finale at East Lake.
Tier 10
Steve Stricker
Chris Kirk
Ben Martin
Graham DeLaet
Sean O’Hair
Kevin Stadler
William McGirt
Morgan Hoffmann
K.J. Choi
Wesley Bryan
Whee Kim
Greg Chalmers
Nicholas Lindheim
Chad Collins
Camilo Villegas
D.A. Points
Tim Clark
Briny Baird
Harrison Frazar
David Berganio Jr.
Wow, some blasts from the past at the bottom of the ranking here. Unless you want Stricker to offer your squad a putting lesson or Stadler to bring some needed personality or Villegas to get those calf muscles into shape, take a hard pass on this group, most of whom will be playing off a medical exemption this season – if they play at all.
