ORLANDO – Tuesday was rainy, Wednesday was chilly, but Thursday looks downright perfect for the opening round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with a high of 73 and exactly 1% chance of precipitation.
Let’s get right to my three favorite matchups in some of my favorite conditions.
Charles Howell III over Tyrrell Hatton (-125)
He’s not just consistent overall, Howell is consistently strong in opening rounds, breaking 70 in each of his last five and eight of 10 this season.
Considering his late pro-am time on Wednesday, I might’ve hesitated if this was an early Thursday start, but at 12:21 p.m. local time, I’m all-in on CH3 resting up and then posting another low one.
Patrick Reed over Bryson DeChambeau (+125)
There were some murmurs on the practice range Wednesday that BDC has had some, well, let’s just say not-so-good grind sessions already this week. I love his work ethic, but when things go south he tends to get overly frustrated by his play.
Meanwhile, Reed owns a nice track record here and has some great value in this matchup.
Tommy Fleetwood over Marc Leishman (-110)
Fleetwood has played this event each of the last two years; in 2017, he opened with a 78 and last year he posted a 76 in the third round. The other six rounds? His scoring average is 68.67.
I like the 3-to-1 odds of Fleetwood starting out with a low one – even against a guy who won here just a few years ago.
