Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I break down my favorite head-to-head matchup for the Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, TX (May 23).
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
829-611-43, +132.12 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 402-300-7, +49.09 Units
- NHL: 128-110-9, +19.32 Units
- MLB: 49-54-13, -10.19 Units
- Golf: 9-12-2, -0.70 Units
- NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units
2019 Charles Schwab Challenge: Jhonattan Vegas vs. Jim Furyk
- Jhonattan Vegas: +125
- Jim Furyk: -145
I don't really like the head-to-head matchups for this week's PGA Tournament, but I do think there's an intriguing pseudo-arbitrage opportunity available in the market.
In case you're not familiar, arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same bet in different markets so that you can profit from unequal prices (per our sports betting glossary).
With arbitrage, the basic idea is to compare the value of something in different markets and exploit the differences you find.
From an arbitrage-informed perspective, Vegas catches my eye.
In the Official World Golf Ranking, Furyk is the superior golfer (51 vs. 82). In the FantasyLabs PGA Models, Furyk also has the better long-term adjusted round score (69.5 vs. 69.7).
But in DraftKings pricing, Vegas and Furyk are both $7,300. And Vegas has the higher odds to win and finish in the top five and 10.
- Odds to win: +8000 vs. +10000
- Odds to finish in top five: +1400 vs. +1600
- Odds to finish in top 10: +700 vs. +800
They have identical +350 odds to finish in the top 20.
Furyk is the more consistent golfer and more likely to finish in the top 50, but at plus money, I don't mind investing in the golfer whom the market has deemed the likelier of the two to have a strong performance.
I’d bet on Vegas down to +115.
The Pick: Vegas (+125)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
