Not all third rounds are created equal.
Unlike most Saturdays, this one didn’t have a cut beforehand, which means we could exploit some value in our matchup plays.
Season Record: 15-18-3 (-3.46 units)
Brendan Steele -0.5 (-115) over Jason Dufner
11:40 a.m. ET
Going back to the well here after winning on the same bet yesterday. Steele traditionally plays well in the desert and should have scoring opportunities in La Quinta, while Dufner is mired at the bottom of the board and probably wishes there’d been a cut already.
Jhonattan Vegas (+105) over Russell Knox
How strange is this: In the first round, Vegas shot 6-under and beat his playing partner by seven … and in the second round, Knox did the exact same thing right back at him. I'm banking on another reversal, as Vegas owns a nice prior record at this event.
Martin Laird (-115) over Harris English
So far this week, Laird has posted contrasting scores of 65-75, but like Vegas, I expect some positive regression on the easiest of the three courses.
