It looked like we had a chance at the inaugural 3M Open for a while on Sunday. Wyndham Clark had a one shot lead with six holes left, but he fell by the wayside down the stretch.
We'll move on to one of the regular tour stops at the John Deere Classic. We usually get a pretty weak field here with the Open Championship coming up next week and some top players participating in the Scottish Open, but this week is the worst I can remember.
Once Kevin Na withdrew, we were left without a single top 50 player in the world, which is basically unheard of for a normal, full-field event.
But a win at the John Deere will still lock up a bid in the Open, the Masters and PGA Championship, so a lot is on the line for a field that features many guys just looking to secure status.
Let's break down who I like at the Deere, while also hitting on the Scottish Open card quickly at the end.
The Course
TPC Deere Run rarely provides much of a challenge. It checks in at a little more than 7,200 yards for a par 71. Expect the winner to get to at least 18-under this week.
Basically, you'll want someone who can hit the greens this week and hopefully get the putter rolling.
Scrambling isn't too big of a factor, because if a guy is putting himself in positions where he needs to continually get up-and-down, he's probably not generating enough birdie opportunities to win anyway.
>> For more info on the course, check out Justin Bailey's breakdown over at FantasyLabs.
The Field
With all the stars in Europe, the young guns headline the board. Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland are the favorites at around +1600.
Neither were professional golfers back in May, so it's been a quick rise for these two, along with last week's winner Matthew Wolff.
These guys all appear to have staying power, and are probably the most talented players here, but I tend to stay away from the favorites most weeks. That will be the case with these guys again.
This trio's value will likely come down the road in stronger field events, where we we'll get much better numbers. Wolff was 125-1 last week, and while those type of odds are gone for all of these guys for the foreseeable future, they'll likely settle into the mid-tier once the fields get a little deeper.
The Mid-Tier
As mentioned, we were close last week with Wyndham Clark, so I'll jump back in at +5000 this week. He's been putting really well and strung three solid finishes together (T-5, T-17, T-15). His game is where it needs to be to win in this type of field, and maybe last week will serve as a learning experience on how to handle the nerves while in contention.
I also like Ryan Palmer at +6600. Palmer has struggled on this course for some reason (four missed cuts in four appearances), but I think I should fit his game better than his results show. Palmer is too strong of a player to be at this number in this type of field. He's made four of his past five cuts over a three-month span, including a sixth-place finish at Colonial.
The last guy in this range is Peter Malnati at +8000. He's playing some of the most consistent golf of his career right now, making 12 of his past 13 cuts this season. And while he doesn't have any high-end finishes, he's continually played well for about five months now.
Malnati has won once on tour before in a weak field, so if it all clicks for him, we know he's capable of finishing on top at an event like this.
Longshots
Just one guy triple digits this week for me, and that's Roger Sloan at 125-1. Sloan played well in the early portion of the season before hitting a skid in March. But it looks like he's worked his way out of it, as he's gained strokes with his ball-striking and putting in his past two tournaments, so he might be trending toward contention.
Scottish Open Thoughts
While someone looks for a breakthrough at the John Deere, the stars who want a pre-Open Championship tune-up will give the Scottish Open a go.
At the top of the board, Justin Thomas at +2000 would be of the most interest to me. He's on my Open card, so I'm passing on him here, but this is big number for him in a European Tour field.
I do have a bet on Bernd Wiesberger at +4000. He's returned from injury and looked really good for a couple months now, with four top-20s in his past five tournaments, including a win and a runner-up.
I'm also on Paul Waring at 100-1. He's finished inside the top 25 four times in his past five starts, including a seventh-place finish last week in the Irish Open.
I'll also add a couple of top 10/20 bets on guys who played well last week. The field is might be too tough for Eduardo Molinari and Zander Lombard, but both finished inside the top 10 at the Irish Open, and I like them to build on those results this week. Molinari is on the card at +800 to top 10, while Lombard is +600 to top 20.
The Cards
John Deere
- Wyndham Clark +5000
- Ryan Palmer +6600
- Peter Malnati +8000
- Roger Sloan +125000
Scottish Open
- Bernd Wiesberger +4000
- Paul Waring +10000
- Eduardo Molinari Top 10 +800
- Zander Lombard Top 20 +600
