Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I break down my favorite head-to-head matchup for the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide (May 30).
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
843-620-46, +134.99 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 408-304-7, +49.86 Units
- NHL: 133-111-11, +22.57 Units
- MLB: 51-57-14, -11.69 Units
- Golf: 9-13-2, -1.70 Units
- NASCAR: 12-17-0, -4.42 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units
2019 Memorial Tournament: Arbitrage Strategy
Although my featured matchup of Jhonattan Vegas over Jim Furyk didn't cash last week, I had personal success by employing a pseudo-arbitrage strategy.
In case you’re not familiar, arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same bet in different markets so that you can profit from unequal prices (per our sports betting glossary).
With arbitrage, the basic idea is to compare the value of something in different markets and exploit the differences you find.
Last week, in head-to-head matchups I targeted underdogs with good marks in the FantasyLabs PGA Models and the higher DraftKings salary and/or the superior odds to win or finish in the top five, 10 or 20.
Using a similar strategy again this week, I've identified five underdog golfers who offer value in their head-to-head matchups.
2019 Memorial Tournament: Bryson DeChambeau vs. Gary Woodland
- Bryson DeChambeau: +105
- Gary Woodland: -125
DeChambeau won this tournament last year, and he has the better long-term adjusted round score in our Models (68.5 vs. 68.7).
DeChambeau also has the higher DraftKings salary ($8,900 vs. $8,800) and identical odds to finish in the top five (+650), top 10 (+300) and top 20 (+150).
I'd bet DeChambeau over Woodland to -110.
The Pick: DeChambeau (+105)
2019 Memorial Tournament: Luke List vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Luke List: +105
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: -125
List and Fitzpatrick are statistical doppelgängers. They have the same long-term adjusted round score (69.3), DraftKings salary ($7,600) and odds to finish in the top five (+1400), top 10 (+700) and top 20 (+333).
I wouldn't go any lower than +105, but I'll bet on coin flips all day long if someone is willing to give me plus odds.
The Pick: List (+105)
2019 Memorial Tournament: Justin Thomas vs. Matt Kuchar
- Justin Thomas: +100
- Matt Kuchar: -120
Thomas has the superior odds to win (+1800 vs. +2000) and identical odds to finish in the top five (+350), top 10 (+175) and top 20 (-125).
Most importantly, Thomas has the significantly better long-term adjusted round score (67.7 vs. 68.7).
I'd bet on Thomas over Kuchar to -120.
The Pick: Thomas (+100)
2019 Memorial Tournament: Tiger Woods vs. Justin Rose
- Tiger Woods: -105
- Justin Rose: -115
I grant that the market for Woods is probably inflated because of his Masters victory, which could explain why he has the higher DraftKings salary ($11,200 vs. $10,800) as well as superior odds to win (+1200 vs. +1600) and finish in the top five (+250 vs. +330), top 10 (+110 vs. +160) and top 20 (-190 vs. -140).
But Woods and Rose have the same long-term adjusted round score (67.9), and Woods knows the course at the Muirfield Village Golf Club quite well: Rose has won the Memorial once and finished second twice, but Tiger has won the tournament five times.
I'd bet on Woods over Rose to -110.
The Pick: Woods (-105)
2019 Memorial Tournament: Marc Leishman vs. Kevin Kisner
- Marc Leishman: +100
- Kevin Kisner: -120
Leishman easily has the better long-term adjusted round score (68.8 vs. 69.6), and he has the higher DraftKings salary ($8,000 vs. $7,900).
He also has the superior odds to win (+6000 vs. +7000) and finish in the top five (+1100 vs. +1200) and top 20 (+275 vs. +300). Leishman and Kisner have the same odds to finish top-10 (+600).
Given his significant edge in long-term form, I'd bet on Leishman over Kisner down to -150.
The Pick: Leishman (+100)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
