In this piece, I'll be using the golf metrics in the FantasyLabs PGA Models as well as other golf metrics in search of potentially exploitable individual betting matchups for the 2019 Northern Trust Open.
Let's dive into this week's action.
All odds as of Tuesday morning.
Patrick Reed (-120) over Shane Lowry
This seems like a prime let-down spot for Lowry, who has been playing incredibly well of late and is coming off his win at The Open Championship.
However, I think this course is more suited for Reed, especially when looking at their long-term form (Reed listed first):
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: 68.8 vs. 69.2
- Greens in Regulation: 65.3% vs. 67.5%
- Scrambling rate: 60.6% vs. 52.8%
- Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -0.7 vs. +0.9
- Adjusted strokes on par 5s: -4.5 vs. -3.7
Reed has been superior to Lowry in four of the five categories I'm looking at. Most importantly, Reed's Adjusted Round Score is 0.4 strokes better than Lowry.
And while Lowry has hit GIR at a slightly higher clip compared to Reed over the long run, Reed's irons have been trending upward as he's hit 72.2% of GIR over the last six weeks, and he's gained strokes on approach in eight of his last 10 tournaments.
Reed gained strokes on approach in six straight tournaments before losing 2.4 strokes on approach last week at the Wyndham Championship.
Furthermore, I'm giving some weight to scrambling and short game here as Adam Scott said the greens at Liberty National are trickier than they look, and Reed's short game and putting is world-class.
I'd bet this down to -130.
Bryson DeChambeau (+105) over Jason Day
At plus-money odds, I'll take a shot on Bryson here, especially since he has higher odds to win compared to Day.
He also has more favorable long-term metrics:
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: 68.4 vs. 68.6
- Greens in Regulation: 66.8% vs. 67.3%
- Scrambling rate: 61.3% vs. 58.6%
- Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -0.8 vs. -0.5
- Adjusted strokes on par 5s: -5.2 vs. -5.0
Both golfers aren't in the best recent form as DeChambeau is sporting a 69.9 recent Adjusted Round Score, and Day has a 70.9 recent Adjusted Round Score over the last six weeks. Still, it's a full-stroke better than Day, and we're getting plus-money odds in this matchup for a golfer who has better recent and long-term form.
If DeChambeau can progress to his long-term metrics, I like him in this spot against Day.
I'd bet this to -110.
Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National
