Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I break down my favorite head-to-head matchups for the 2019 RBC Canadian Open at the Hamilton Golf and Country Club on June 6.
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
871-638-48, +142.27 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 411-310-7, +46.39 Units
- NHL: 152-120-13, +30.70 Units
- MLB: 54-57-14, -9.07 Units
- Golf: 12-15-2, -0.70 Units
- NASCAR: 12-18-0, -5.42 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units
2019 RBC Canadian Open: Arbitrage Strategy
For the past couple of weeks, I've had some success by employing a pseudo-arbitrage strategy.
In case you’re not familiar, arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same bet in different markets so that you can profit from unequal prices (per our sports betting glossary).
With arbitrage, the basic idea is to compare the value of something in different markets and exploit the differences you find.
For the past two weeks, I've targeted head-to-head underdogs with good marks in the FantasyLabs PGA Models and the higher DraftKings salary or the superior odds to win or finish in the top five, 10 or 20.
Using a similar strategy again this week, I’ve identified three underdog golfers who offer value in their head-to-head matchups.
2019 Canadian Open: Webb Simpson vs. Matt Kuchar
- Webb Simpson: +100
- Matt Kuchar: -120
Kuchar has tied for second at this tournament, but that was in 2013 and at a different course.
Simpson has the superior long-term adjusted round score in our Models (68.3 vs. 68.7) and the same odds as Kuchar to win the tournament (+2000) and finish in the top five (+400), top 10 (+185) and top 20 (-125).
Given the significant edge that Simpson has in our Models, I'd bet him down to -110.
The Pick: Simpson (+100)
2019 Canadian Open: Scott Piercy vs. Henrik Stenson
- Scott Piercy: +100
- Henrik Stenson: -120
Piercy won this tournament in 2012 at Hamilton Golf and Country Club, where the event is being played this year.
Additionally, compared to Stenson he has the better odds to win (+2800 vs.+3000) and finish in the top five (+550 vs. +600), top 10 (+250 vs. +300) and top 20 (+125 vs. +135).
Piercy also enters the tournament in better form, carrying the superior recent adjusted round score (68.1 vs. 68.7).
I'd bet on Piercy over Stenson down to -110.
The Pick: Piercy (+100)
2019 Memorial Tournament: Austin Cook vs. Sungjae Im
- Austin Cook: +115
- Sungjae Im: -135
I am all over Cook, who has the higher DraftKings salary ($8,100 vs. $7,900) and long-term adjusted round score (69.8 vs. 69.9).
Cook also has the better odds to win (+6600 vs. +8000), and although Im has the slightly superior odds to finish in the top 20 (+330 vs. +350), they have identical odds to finish in the top five (+1400) and top 10 (+700).
Given how similar they statistically are, I'd bet on Cook down to +100.
The Pick: Cook (+100)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
