We've reached the final PGA Tour stop of 2019, the RSM Classic.
A decent number of pros live in St. Simons Island so it's easy to find players with local narratives to go off. Rather than local ties though, I'm focusing more on players with strong putting numbers on Bermuda Grass and in-form iron play.
The Course
Sea Island Golf Course has a pair of course it uses. The first two rounds are split between the Par 70 Island Course and the Par 72 Plantation course. Both measure slightly over 7,000 yards.
If you can find First-Round Leader odds, target the Plantation course. Bets will be graded based on how far below par the golfer finishes, not total strokes, so the two extra par 5s will give you an edge here. Many books won't list FRL odds when the opening round is played on multiple courses, but if you dig around, you'll probably find someone who offers it.
This tournament usually plays pretty easy, with a score in the high-teens or low-20's needed to come out on top. If the wind picks up, it can get challenging, but for the most part, this is a wedge and putting contest.
The Favorites
Webb Simpson tops the field this week at +800. His results have been pretty erratic here given how weak the field is, but he does own three top 10s including a runner-up and third-place finish.
Billy Horschel and Matt Kuchar are the only other players below +2000 this week. Kuchar never really seems to play well here with just one finish inside the top 10. This is Horschel's second trip to Sea Island since 2013. The last time he played here, back in 2016, he lost in a playoff that eventually went to Mackenzie Hughes.
The defending champ Charles Howell III is at +2000 and the trio of Alex Noren, Kevin Kisner and Harris English close out this range at +2800. Noren is a bit of surprise in this field. I'd look harder at him, but his form just hasn't been there. He hasn't had a top-10 finish in a full-field event anywhere in the world since July 2018 when he won in France.
Kisner is probably the biggest threat in this range. He's won here before and has four top 10s in his last five starts. The number would be worth a look if he'd shown any form at all this fall. But even that may not matter when he enters familiar surroundings.
The Mid-Tier
This has been a good range to find winners in recent years. We hit Austin Cook here two years ago at +8000 and have seen other champions like Howell, Robert Streb and Chris Kirk come from this area of the betting board.
We'll start here with Denny McCarthy at +5500. McCarthy is a really good putter, especially on Bermuda, and his tee-to-green game has been more cooperative this fall.
After betting him last week, I'm going back to Russell Henley at +6000. Henley missed the cut last week, but was playing pretty well prior to being assessed eight penalty strokes. He's also finished inside the top 10 three of his last four years here.
I'll also go with JT Poston at +7000. He's never made a cut here, but the course should fit his game. He won at Sedgefield, another wedge and putter course, a few months ago. He's one of the local guys we've looked at few times, but has just never had the results here. He's a better player now though and could pop up this week.
Longshots
We'll take a chance here with Robby Shelton at 140-1. Shelton was sixth in Mexico last week and has one other top-10 finish this fall at Greenbrier. He's a player who can get really hot with the putter, though his irons can be inconsistent. Nonetheless, I like this number coming off a good result.
Bo Hoag will also make the card at that same 140-1 number. He's been in the top 20 his last two starts and was in contention for awhile in Bermuda before sliding back on Sunday. He's not the best putter, but the tee-to-green game should give him plenty of chances here.
Lastly, we'll go with Davis Riley at 400-1. This is more of a top-20 play than anything else. We backed the Alabama alum at the Sanderson Farms where he was inside the top 20 number for a little while on Sunday before sliding back. He's a guy I mentioned that week will be a threat on the Korn Ferry Tour this season, but I also like him on the comfortable courses in SEC country that feature Bermuda Greens, so I'll take a chance with him at these big numbers until he becomes a more recognizable name.
The RSM Card
- Denny McCarthy +5500 (.6 units)
- Russell Henley +6000 (.55 units)
- JT Poston +7000 (.47 units)
- Robby Shelton +14000 (.24 units)
- Bo Hoag +14000 (.24 units)
- Davis Riley +40000 (.09 units)
Total Stake: 2.19 units
