With the PGA Tour season wrapping up this week, my focus has started to shift overseas as the European Tour schedule starts to pick up.
I’m not really seeing a whole lot of value with the Tour Championship at the moment. My only action will be a FedEx Cup future I have on Jon Rahm at 25-1 that was placed in December, but at his current price around 14-1, I doubt I’d place a bet. If I see something live I may jump in, so keep an eye on my Twitter, but for now, I’ll be looking at the Scandinavian Masters over in Sweden.
2019 Scandinavian Masters Preview
Henrik Stenson (8-1) and Matthew Fitzpatrick (9-1) headline the field at Hills Sport and Golf Club in Gothenburg, Sweden. The course measures at around 6,900 yards for a par 70. It’s not much of a test with the driver at that length and forces players to rely on their approach game to create birdie opportunities.
With a course of this style, I’ll be targeting players who aren’t really dependent on their length and hit a large number of greens.
First, we’ll go with Jordan Smith at +4550. Smith is a boom-or-bust type player who can win in any European field or just as easily miss the cut. But he leads the tour in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and is 11th in strokes gained: tee to green.
Next we’ll go with Aaron Rai at +6600. He’s pretty much an auto-bet for me on any course this short. Rai's only career win came at the Hong Kong Open on another course under 7,000 yards. He also held his own at the WGC St. Jude event where he finished 12th on one of the shorter PGA tracks.
He’s inside the top 10 in GIR and he still manages to gain strokes off the tee despite being one of the shortest hitters in Europe thanks to his accuracy.
Lastly, I’ll take a shot on Matthew Southgate at 100-1. Southgate is inside the top 15 in GIR and consistently finds the fairway. He also finished 10th here a year ago.
Scandinavian Masters Card
- Jordan Smith +4550 (.73 units)
- Aaron Rai +6600 (.5 units)
- Matthew Southgate +10000 (.33 units)
Total Stake: 1.56 units
