The U.S. Open hasn't really been a tournament for longshots, but that won't stop me from throwing a few darts and seeing if someone can get into contention at Pebble Beach.
This event's last triple-digit winner came back in 2009 when Lucas Glover won. Since then, Webb Simpson and Graeme McDowell were as high as +8000 when they claimed their titles. McDowell's win notably came at Pebble Beach, a course which can cater to the longshots a bit.
Without the major advantage distance off the tee usually provides, Pebble Beach lets the shorter hitters contend at a better rate than we'd usually see at a U.S. Open.
During the regular tour stop, we've had longshot winners like Ted Potter Jr. and Vaughn Taylor. As mentioned before, it's not the same set up, but players do come from out of nowhere at Pebble Beach. So this course may be as good as any to snap that U.S. Open longshot drought.
The Course
Pebble Beach will check in at a relatively short 7,075 yards for a par 71. The fairways will be tighter and the rough will be thicker than the during the regular tour stop, but it will test the same parts of each player's game.
The players will need to be completely dialed in with their irons and they will need to be good scramblers and have confidence on the poa annua greens.
Even the best ball-strikers will miss their fair share of greens this week so the ability to minimize damage will be incredibly important.
Since this is a shorter course, bombing it off the tee isn't a requirement at Pebble Beach. Length will be helpful as it will allow players to club down a bit off the tee on some holes, making it more likely that they'll keep the ball on the fairway which gives them a better chance of hitting the green.
I'll start with Gary Woodland, who I have at 150-1 from a play in the fall and is still out there out there in the 100-1 range on some books. He finished eighth at the PGA Championship and had really good ball-striking numbers.
Next, I'll go with an old favorite in Tyrrell Hatton. I have 100-1 from an early play, but his number went the opposite direction and is out there in the 150-1 range. Even though the number went the wrong way for me, his game is in decent shape, he's gained strokes with his ball-striking in his last three events. He was also 6th in last year's U.S. Open, showing he can handle a USGA set up.
My other play from early in the fall is Cameron Smith at 150-1. He's still available at around that number. He's a strong scrambler and poa putter, which should come in handy this week. He struggles to find the fairway at times, but if he can keep the tee ball in play, his wedge game should suit the course.
The only new play in this range will be Matt Wallace at +15250. Wallace did well for us at the PGA Championship and I'll go back to the well again with him. He is a proven winner in Europe and is simply better than the number being offered.
He'll continue to get more comfortable in the US and eventually he'll break through with a win. It may not be a major, but a win in the States is looming.
The US Open Card
- Justin Thomas +3000 (1.1 units)
- Jason Day +3500 (.94 units)
- Patrick Cantlay +6600 (.5 units)
- Tony Finau +6600 (.5 units)
- Tyrrell Hatton +10000 (.33 units)
- Gary Woodland +15000 (.22 units)
- Cameron Smith +15000 (.22 units)
- Matt Wallace +15250 (.22 units)
Total Stake: 4.03 units
