We’ve run all the projections.
We’ve looked at match play history and course fit and current form.
We’ve done our due diligence.
Now it’s time to make some picks.
Because of the round-robin opening-round format at the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship, the bracket isn’t as neat and clean as filling one out for the NCAA hoops tourney, but I’ll list my picks to advance in the order of how the matches will play out and hopefully it’ll all make some sense.
Round-Robin Picks
Group 1: Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Branden Grace, Chez Reavie
My pick: Dustin Johnson
I didn’t really want to start my bracket with chalk, but I didn’t see any way around it. I’ve been driving the Matsuyama bandwagon for a while – he’s going to win soon, but not this week.
Group 16: Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry, Andrew Putnam
My pick: Sergio Garcia
Our projections only have one player with the best chance of advancing who isn’t a top seed in his pod, and that player is Sergio. Reed is working on his swing with David Leadbetter, while Lowry and Putnam haven’t looked great lately. Easy call for me.
Group 8: Jon Rahm, Matt Kuchar, J.B. Holmes, Si Woo Kim
My pick: Jon Rahm
I can see the wildly inconsistent Kim putting it all together this week and pulling an upset here, but I’m sticking with the known commodity in Rahm, who reached the final two years ago and has been playing really solid golf recently.
Group 9: Xander Schauffele, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Tyrrell Hatton, Lee Westwood
My pick: Rafa Cabrera Bello
One of the tougher groups for me, as I can see any of these four players winning it. I gave RCB a slight advantage based on his ball-striking, but if you’re firing a few longshot bets on players to advance, I don’t hate throwing a dart on Westwood.
Group 4: Rory McIlroy, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Justin Harding, Luke List
My pick: Matthew Fitzpatrick
Yeah, yeah. I know: I’m crazy for picking anyone but Rory. That might be true, but I’ve got two edges on my side: 1) McIlroy wouldn’t hate a Friday elimination that allows him to rest up and start prepping earlier for a career grand slam bid at Augusta soon; and 2) These two players just squared off in the final pairing at Bay Hill and while neither played great, Fitz beat Rory by a stroke.
Group 13: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Brandt Snedeker, Aaron Wise
My pick: Tiger Woods
Would’ve been fun to see a few more marquee matches against Tiger, as these opponents shouldn’t scare him much at all. Cantlay is obviously talented – I can’t wait to see how he fares against Tiger on Friday afternoon.
Group 5: Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Matt Wallace, Lucas Bjerregaard
My pick: Justin Thomas
Just a warning: You’re probably going to see Thomas’ name pretty frequently in everything I write for the next few weeks. I’m in full JT-mode right now, as I think he’s trending nicely going into the heart of the season.
Group 12: Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk
My pick: Jim Furyk
This might be the “Group of Death,” but Furyk has been breathing some life back into his career. I think he loves being the underdog against three more heralded players and I also think he’s extra motivated to move from 54th in the world ranking into the top-50 and get into the Masters field. It’s probably not the popular pick, but I’m going with the guy who needs it the most.
Group 2: Justin Rose, Gary Woodland, Eddie Pepperell, Emiliano Grillo
My pick: Eddie Pepperell
It’s pretty clear that Rose, the world’s second-ranked player, doesn’t love this format (or just this event) as he hasn’t played here in three years. Really, my decision came down to the two lower-ranked players in this group, with the edge toward Pepperell for better recent form.
Group 15: Bubba Watson, Jordan Spieth, Billy Horschel, Kevin Na
My pick: Billy Horschel
Even though he’s the defending champion, Watson said recently that he’d like to see this tourney become medal play; Spieth has seemed lost all year so far; and Na is fresh off yet another WD. That leaves Horschel, who wins this one by process of elimination.
Group 7: Francesco Molinari, Webb Simpson, Thorbjorn Olesen, Satoshi Kodaira
My pick: Francesco Molinari
Quite frankly, I’m not even that high on Frankie this week, but the rest of this group just feels so meh that I didn’t know where else to go. Olesen could make a little noise, but I’ll stick with Molinari and his smooth iron play.
Group 10: Paul Casey, Cameron Smith, Charles Howell III, Abraham Ancer
My pick: Charles Howell III
Now this is a fun group to watch. A quartet of ball-strikers who should continually keep themselves in holes, expect plenty of halves throughout the first three days. I’ll take CH3 in a close one over Smith for the simple fact that he’s been so solid all year.
Group 3: Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren, Haotong Li, Tom Lewis
My pick: Brooks Koepka
Another snoozer. Noren has lost his game recently and Lewis has looked very mediocre. That leaves Koepka and Li. I like the latter, but I just can’t envision him looking across the tee box in that match and not being intimidated by the dude in the size smedium shirt.
Group 14: Tony Finau, Ian Poulter, Kevin Kisner, Keith Mitchell
My pick: Kevin Kisner
Flip a coin. Seriously. This is a fantastic group, consisting of four absolute gamers for this format. If any of these players were in another group, I’d seriously consider them. And that Wednesday match between Poults and Kiz could elicit the first brawl since Keegan Bradley and Miguel Angel Jimenez went at it years ago. In the end, I’m taking Kisner, but you could convince me of any of the other three here.
Group 6: Bryson DeChambeau, Marc Leishman, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Russell Knox
My pick: Russell Knox
I really like both Leishman and Knox here; I’ve always thought they’re similar types of players – keep the ball low, use the ground, don’t get into too much trouble, roll in some putts. Maybe I just have a need to go anti-chalk, but I’ve got a good feeling about Knox this week.
Group 11: Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Kyle Stanley, Byeong Hun An
My pick: Louis Oosthuizen
My head says Fleetwood, but my heart says, well… that says Fleetwood, too. So, why am I picking Oosty? Good question. I keep asking myself that. Might be that anti-chalk thing again, but he did play exceptionally well this past weekend in Tampa.
Round of 16
Dustin Johnson vs. Sergio Garcia
My pick: Sergio Garcia
Nothing like a little Saturday morning heavyweight title fight, huh? Give me Sergio in his adopted hometown, where I think he’ll be a little extra motivated this week.
Jon Rahm vs. Rafa Cabrera Bello
My pick: Jon Rahm
Look at all these Spaniards in the same quadrant of the bracket. One of ‘em has to go home in this one and since I’m not even totally sold on RCB getting here, I’ll go with the proven guy in Rahm.
Matthew Fitzpatrick vs. Tiger Woods
My pick: Tiger Woods
After Fitzpatrick’s third trip to the port-a-potty against a guy he grew up watching, I think he can settle down and give Tiger a good match. But I still like Woods to move on.
Justin Thomas vs. Jim Furyk
My pick: Justin Thomas
Probably not the match everyone wants to see, as JT against Jason Day or Phil Mickelson would be more fun. With Furyk already into the Masters based on advancing, expect him to run out of gas here as Thomas keeps on rolling.
Eddie Pepperell vs. Billy Horschel
My pick: Billy Horschel
Billy Ho always tells me he likes a good tweet and Pepperell fires ‘em out at an alarming rate. If he can put down the phone, though, I like Horschel’s fire and moxie in this format. Should be a close one.
Francesco Molinari vs. Charles Howell III
My pick: Charles Howell III
This is not your father’s Howell III (which would be Howell II, I suppose). He’s playing with more confidence than he has in years and it’s shown in his results. I like him to pull off the upset here.
Brooks Koepka vs. Kevin Kisner
My pick: Brooks Koepka
I’d love to see the contrast of styles in this match. The pick is Koepka for just one reason: I’m much more confident in him reaching this point than Kisner. I don’t want to push Kiz too far in the bracket if I’m not even sure about him getting past the likes of Ian Poulter in the first match.
Russell Knox vs. Louis Oosthuizen
My pick: Russell Knox
Hey, sometimes you’ve gotta run with an underdog. And if you think this is an upset, just wait ‘til the next round …
Quarterfinals
Sergio Garcia vs. Jon Rahm
My pick: Jon Rahm
On our TAN podcast, I initially had Sergio reaching the Final Four, but looking at this match now – and knowing how much joy Rahm takes in playing against the big boys, as he did when he beat Tiger Woods in the Ryder Cup last year – this just feels like a good spot for the young guy.
Tiger Woods vs. Justin Thomas
My pick: Justin Thomas
They could’ve just played this one back home in South Florida or during one of their many practice rounds together. There are few in the field who would flinch less at the sight of Tiger against them than JT, who won’t even blink.
Billy Horschel vs. Charles Howell III
My pick: Billy Horschel
While the left side of my bracket consists of a lot of chalk, the right side is a whole bunch of dart throws. I’m not even sure how much I like Horschel this week, but I’m gonna keep riding him here.
Francesco Molinari vs. Russell Knox
My pick: Russell Knox
Yeah, let’s just go with complete chaos and mayhem on this side of the bracket. Knox is the 59th-ranked player in the field, but I’ve got him advancing to the semifinals. Bold strategy, huh?
Semifinals
Jon Rahm vs. Justin Thomas
My pick: Justin Thomas
If this one happens, might want to keep your schedule clear on Saturday afternoon, because this could be a brilliant matchup. And based on what I’ve got going on the other side of the bracket, this semifinal could be the equivalent of a Western Conference series before the NBA Finals.
Billy Horschel vs. Russell Knox
My pick: Billy Horschel
One ‘dog has to advance, the other’s gotta go home. Here’s hoping Horschel’s ball-striking is on point this week. You know the fiery demeanor will always be there.
Finals
Justin Thomas vs. Billy Horschel
My pick: Justin Thomas
It was always going to take a major roadblock for me not to have JT winning this event, even before the matches were announced on Monday.
His combination of ball-striking, aggressiveness and grittiness should suit him well this week. And a win should have him riding some big momentum going into the upcoming Masters.
