We were right about Webb Simpson in the St. Jude last week, but he simply ran into Goliath.
That brings us to 10 runner-up finishes for the 2018-19 season, although this one isn't as scaring; it never really felt like Simpson was going to win at any point on Sunday.
So we'll move on to the Wyndham Championship and the close of the PGA Tour regular season, where Webb will inherit Koepka's role as tournament favorite.
The Course
Sedgefield Country Club is one of the easier courses on Tour. We should expect the winner to get close to 20-under par.
It's a relatively short par-70 course that stretches 7,127 yards and puts more of a premium on accuracy as opposed to distance. It's one of the few tracks left on Tour where the short plodders are still alive for a win.
We've seen that in recent years with players like Brandt Snedeker, Luke Donald and Bill Haas contending.
The Field
As mentioned, Simpson will be the favorite this week in the +900 range after a runner-up finish last week. He was also the runner-up here a year ago and has finished inside the top six in four of his last five trips.
Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and the Tour's newest winner Collin Morikawa are the only other golfers under +2000. They're all listed in the +1400 range.
At the top, Webb is obviously a deserving favorite. He's in better form than Hideki and Spieth and has the best history here of anyone in the field. But I can't back him after the number from last week has been cut by about 75 percent.
The Favorites
The last two years have been won by someone in this range with Snedeker and Henrik Stenson each picking up the title.
But usually this event has been a chance for someone from off the radar to get that breakthrough win, so I'll be steering clear of this range.
Billy Horschel would be the one guy I'd keep an eye on at +2800. He's coming off a solid week at the WGC event and tends to play better on shorter courses.
The Mid Tier
We'll have a few plays in this range, starting with Lucas Glover at +5050.
Glover has finished in the top 20 in his past three starts. He's great tee-to-green and the putter has been more cooperative this season. Even though Glover has never really contended here, he has a bunch of solid results (28th, 22nd, 18th) and it's a course that should fit his eye and skill set.
With this being the last week of the regular season and players needing to get inside the top 125 to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, I like targeting a player or two who has a lot to play for. Martin Kaymer fits the bill; he's 146th in the standings, but his form has been consistent in recent months with seven straight made cuts and a couple top 10s worldwide. I'll take him at +6050.
I'll also go with Scott Piercy at +6650. He's an accurate player with good iron play that should fit well at this course. He doesn't play here every year, but has finished inside the top 12 twice in the past four starts. He's also been making cuts on a regular basis and has a pair of top three finishes this year.
Next up is Sungjae Im at +7700. Im has been the most consistent player from the 2018 rookie class. He just doesn't have the win that players like Cameron Champ or Adam Long got early in the year. But this is another shorter course that should suit his eye.
Last up is Bud Cauley at +9800. Sedgefield has been a spot for guys to grab that first Tour win. Simpson, Si Woo Kim and Patrick Reed all picked up their first Tour wins here before moving on to bigger things. Cauley is a guy we've been waiting to get in the winner's circle for a few years. Injuries have derailed him, but the form is trending in the right direction and he's got a couple top 10s here.
The Longshots
Prior to Snedeker and Stenson claiming the title, the tournament had a few winners come from off the grid with Si Woo and Davis Love III winning from the triple digit range. There are a few guys I think could join them this week.
The first is Roger Sloan at 150-1. He's been in great form recently, finishing 21st or better in four straight events and improving his result in each.
We'll also go with Adam Schenk in that same 150-1 range. Schenk is another player in solid form with top 20s in his past two starts.
The Wyndham Card
- Lucas Glover +5050 (.65 units)
- Martin Kaymer +6050 (.55 units)
- Scott Piercy +6600 (.5 units)
- Sungjae Im +7700 (.43 units)
- Bud Cauley +9850 (.34 units)
- Roger Sloan +15000 (.22 units)
- Adam Schenk +15050 (.22 units)
Total Stake: 2.91 units
