One of my favorite betting events, the Honda Classic, is in the books. Sungjae Im, who was a popular pick to win at +3300 (also written as 33-1, $10 bet would have won $330), rewarded his backers with a win.
We'll now shift the focus to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational where eight-time winner Tiger Woods is noticeably absent.
Arnold Palmer Odds & Preview
The Course
Bay Hill is the longest track we will see during the Florida swing, measuring just over 7,400 yards for a par 72. With the added length and extra par 5s, this track plays to the strengths of the bombers a little bit more than most Florida courses. There is water in play on about half of the holes, so accuracy will matter, as well. If the wind blows, Bay Hill can play pretty tough, but there are a lot of birdies available if you can stay out of trouble.
Past champions Jason Day and Rory McIlroy finished just short of 20-under par in more benign conditions, but scores around -10 can get the job done if the wind picks up. Last year's champion, Francesco Molinari, lifted the trophy with a score of 12-under par.
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The Favorites (+3000 or Under)
In this range, we'll take a look at anybody of interest under +3000 (also written as 30-1, $10 bet wins $300), starting with tournament favorite and 2018 champion Rory McIlroy at +500.
McIlroy hasn't finished worse than sixth in his last three starts at Bay Hill. Rory has three top-five finishes in 2020, so things are definitely trending in the right direction for the World No. 1. I don't bet favorites in the full-field events, there's too much volatility to back even the best players at such short odds, but McIlroy can certainly wreck the card at Bay Hill if he's on.
Tommy Fleetwood and Bryson Dechambeau are next in line at +1400 and +1600, respectively. Both Tommy and Bryson are coming off runner-up finishes, Fleetwood at the Honda and DeChambeau at the WGC-Mexico. They both have good course history at Bay Hill. Fleetwood finished third here in 2019 and DeChambeau was second behind McIlroy in 2018. I won't be dipping into this range, but if I had to pick between these two, Dechambeau would be my lean in the outright market.
Hideki Matsuyama checks in next at +1800. Matsuyama has struggled to contend here most years, so despite some good recent form, I'll steer clear. His struggles with the putter are notorious and those problems tend to be at their worst on Bermuda greens.
Matsuyama is the last player under +2000, but there are a few big names right on the other side of 20-1, including Riviera winner Adam Scott and Xander Schauffele at +2200.
This course should fit Scott's skill set, but for some reason he's struggled to post consistent results at Bay Hill. Schauffele, who will be making his API debut, has been solid since his playoff loss at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but he's finished outside the top-10 in his last four starts and never really looked like contending.
The last two winners on Tour, Patrick Reed and Sungjae Im, close out this range at +2500 along with Brooks Koepka.
I was looking at playing Sungjae this week after his third-place finish last year. I figured we may be able to get him at a slightly bigger number in this strong field, but he made his way into the Winner's Circle a week early, so I think the value is basically gone.
Koepka and Reed haven't really produced here, so I don't expect them to win this event as often as their odds suggest they should.
The Mid-Tier (+3000 to +10000)
There are dozens of players that fall into this range, so I'll just limit my thoughts to those I'm actually betting this week.
We'll start with Bubba Watson at +5500 [Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only]. Watson has the length to attack the par 5s, which is where most of the scoring damage will be done this week. He's been playing well so far this season, including strong finishes in Phoenix and at Torrey Pines. It's been nearly a decade since his last top-5 finish here (2012), but he's got a pair of top-20 results in that time and has a good chance to play well this week.
We'll also go with Byeong Hun An as well at +4500 [Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only]. An was the best golfer in the field over the final three rounds at the Honda Classic. The 28-year-old shot a 76 in the first round and still finished T4. An has steadily improved at Bay Hill over his career, finishing 10th and 14th in his last two appearances.
I'll also take a chance on Max Homa at +9000 [Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only]. This is Homa's first appearance at Bay Hill, but he's in great form, gaining strokes off the tee and with his approach in his last four events, leading to top-15 finishes in each start. He also tends to play better on longer courses, including a victory at Quail Hollow a year ago.
The Longshots (+10000 or higher)
Looking back, there haven't been too many winners to come from off the radar to win at Bay Hill. Matt Every won as a longshot back in 2015, but he was the defending champion.
When you're betting on longshots, you're looking to get lucky. A golfer with odds of +10000 (100-1, $10 wins $1,000) has a 1% chance of winning a tournament when you convert the odds to implied probability. So don't go crazy in this range.
This week, we'll hope Patrick Rodgers catches fire at +17500 [Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only].
Rodgers normally struggles with his approach game, but he gained over three strokes last week at PGA National. If the irons stay dialed in, the putter and driver are usually good enough each week for him to contend. Additionally, Rodgers has played well here in the past, finishing seventh two years ago. He also enters the Arnold Palmer Invitational in good form, finishing inside the top-30 in five of his last six starts.
Rodgers is playing his ninth event in as many weeks, so fatigue is a concern, but at this big number I'm willing to take that risk.
Below, we'll list the full card with total percent of a normal bet I'll be placing on each player. (If a normal bet for you is $25, that would be your "unit." And using the first bullet below as an example, that would equate to a $18.25 bet (25 x .73) on Byeong Hun An.)
For most weeks, I'll tend to stay between two and three units, leaving myself another couple units behind should I want to live-bet anyone in the middle of the event.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational Card
- Byeong Hun An +4500 (.73 units)
- Bubba Watson +5500 (.6 units)
- Max Homa +9000 (.37 units)
- Patrick Rodgers +17500 (.19 units)
Total Stake: 1.89 units
