The PGA TOUR heads to Southampton, Bermuda, this week to play the Bermuda Championship after a few weeks of some exciting west coast golf.
While the field won't rival the star-studded field we have seen as of late, there will be some intrigue, as this year's event offers full FedEx Cup points and will be the first event since the COVID-19 outbreak started that allows fans.
The TOUR is limiting spectators to 500 per day, but the addition of fans should prove to be an interesting element this week.
Port Royal Golf Club is a 6,828-yard, Par 71 layout, featuring Bermudagrass greens. This is the second edition of the tournament, and first time it will be the primary TOUR stop for the week (last year, it was an alternate event).
We are most likely in store for another "birdie fest," as the short resort course doesn't offer much in the way of resistance for TOUR professionals.
The field at the Bermuda Championship will be headlined by Henrik Stenson and features some rising stars in Will Zalatoris and Justin Suh. Former major champions Danny Willett, Jason Dufner, Stewart Cink and Padraig Harrington will also be in the field.
Past Winners at The Bermuda Championship
- 2019: Brendon Todd (-24)
Let's take a look at several metrics for Port Royal Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:
Strokes Gained: Approach
During these relatively weak field PGA TOUR events, current form is usually an accurate indicator of who will play well week to week. Unlike the top few players in the world, it is less common for these players to just flip a switch and turn it on. Strokes Gained: Approach is a great way to measure current form and shows who is the most dialed in with their irons.
Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (+23.4) (+4500)
- Jason Dufner (+22.0) (+6600)
- Will Zalatoris (+16.9) (+1100)
- Henrik Stenson (+15.2) (+3300)
- Scott Stallings (+14.0) (+4000)
Fairways Gained
While Port Royal Golf Club should give us some low scores, the rough can actually be quite unforgiving. It will be important to target accurate golfers. As evidenced by Brendon Todd's win here last season, distance off the tee won't be much of a factor.
Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:
- Brendon Todd (+45.0) (+1200)
- Chris Baker (+38.1) (+10000)
- John Oda (+37.9) (+50000)
- Henrik Stenson (+33.7) (+3300)
- Ryan Armour (+32.0) (+10000)
Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass
These low-scoring events often turn into putting contests. If the majority of the field is hitting greens in regulation, it may come down to whomever can heat up with the putter. Bermudagrass specialists will have the best chance to do just that at Port Royal.
Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:
- Dominic Bozzelli (+28.3) (+25000)
- Denny McCarthy (+23.8) (+3300)
- Peter Uihlein (+19.3) (+20000)
- Andrew Putnam (+18.1) (+15000)
- Peter Malnati (+17.7) (+5000)
Birdies or Better Gained
Last year, we saw the winner of this event at 24 under par. I expect the winning score to be similar this time around, which means whomever wins will need to make plenty of birdies.
Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds (per round, minimum of 20 rounds):
- Will Gordon (+15.2) (+10000)
- Denny McCarthy (+14.8) (+3300)
- Anirban Lahiri (+13.1) (+6600)
- Peter Malnati (+12.7) (+5000)
- Seamus Power (+12.3) (+12500)
Par 3: 200+ Yards
With three of four Par 3s at Port Royal measuring between 213 and 235 yards, including one over the ocean that will bring wind into play, it will be important for golfer's to play these holes well. Further highlighting their importance, the three long Par 3s will serve as the second, third, and fifth most difficult holes on the course.
Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:
- Stewart Cink(+4.6) (+4000)
- Henrik Stenson (+3.8) (+3300)
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello(+3.1) (+6000)
- Zach Sucher (+2.8) (+35000)
- Ben Martin (+2.6) (+6600)
Statistical Model
Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%) Fairways Gained (21%); SG: Putting bermudagrass (21%); Par 3: 200-225 (5%); SG: Par 3: 225+ (7%); and, Birdies or better gained (21%)
- Denny McCarthy (+3300)
- Doc Redman (+2800)
- Henrik Norlander (+3300)
- Peter Malnati (+5000)
- Charley Hoffman (+3300)
- Brendon Todd (+1200)
- Scott Stallings (+4000)
- Cameron Tringale (+3300)
- Scott Piercy (+4500)
- Chase Seiffert (+9000)
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