Seasoned golf bettors know that anything can happen — anybody can win win — in a field like the one we will see (and bet on) at the 2020 Bermuda Championship.
The tournament favorite, Will Zalatoris, doesn't even have his TOUR Card yet. Last year's winner, Brendon Todd, is the second favorite at +1400. There are no other golfers listed under +2000. In well-attended tournaments, Harold Varner III, Doc Redman and Emiliano Grillo are often tagged with triple-digit odds. In this field they are the third, fourth and fifth favorite, respectively. In other words, chaos.
Here are our favorite prop bets and matchups on the board for the 2020 Bermuda Championship:
Jason Sobel
Justin Suh Top-20 Finish (+150)
OK, so he’s not going to catch up immediately with Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Matthew Wolff – the three players with whom he came out of college and started playing PGA TOUR events last summer – but Suh has been proving lately that he shouldn’t be completely left out of that group, either.
He’s finished 8th-14th-21st in his last three starts. Playing him as a top-20 is admittedly conservative, so feel free to add him as a top-10 play, as well.
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Josh Perry
Peter Malnati Top-20 Finish (+180)
I imagine Malnati is going to be as popular as anyone this week after back-to-back top-five finishes at the Shriners and Sanderson Farms. It makes sense on a number of levels. He's in a great run of form with the irons and he’s a really good putter, especially on Bermuda greens.
I don’t want to back him to win at his price, but I do think he can continue that good play and put up another solid result in this type of field.
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Chris Murphy
Anirban Lahiri Top-20 Finish (+275)
While much of the TOUR returned to play in early June, we did not see Anirban Lahiri back in tournament play until the Wyndham Championship in mid-August. It was a long, five-month layoff from tournament golf and it naturally took him a couple of events to find his form.
He would return for the new season at the Safeway to make the cut, then turned in a great sixth-place finish in Puntacana. I am leaning on this form and result to see Lahiri return to a similar type of coastal event, where he will see the same type of grasses.
He commented to that point during his interview today, saying that these types of setups fit for him and that he considers himself a very good wind player. A top-20 would be a very strong, but reasonable result this week for Lahiri and we get a good solid number at +275.
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Matt Vincenzi
Wes Bryan Top-10 Finish (+550)
Since Wes has returned from his medical exemption he’s been playing some excellent golf. In his past 24 rounds, Bryan is first in the field in strokes gained: approach. His outstanding iron play has led him to some strong finishes including a 12th-place in his most recent start at the Sanderson Farms.
While Bryan isn’t great off the tee, he has shown some signs of improvement and gained strokes in that department in four consecutive tournaments. Wes is also a good putter historically, but the flat stick has been cold for him of late. If he can get his putter rolling on the slow greens at Port Royal there’s no reason he can’t contend this week.
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Matchups
Josh Perry
Harold Varner III (-125) over Emiliano Grillo
Emiliano Grillo has been making cuts but his putter still isn't cooperating and now we shift to Bermuda greens, which have amplified Grillo's flat-stick issues thus far in his career.
Varner has issues putting at times as well, but he's been playing solid golf for a few months now and when these two have played at the same event, it’s been Varner coming out on top more often. In the last 10 starts, HV3 is 6-2-2 against Grillo.
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Chris Murphy
Brendon Todd (+100) over Will Zalatoris
Will Zalatoris has been one of the stories of the summer as he looks to breakthrough and finally earn his place on TOUR. The Bermuda Championship is certainly a great opportunity for that, but he should not be the favorite over last year’s champion, Brendon Todd.
Todd has been playing in elite level fields and gets the chance to relive the memories of his win from last year, and position himself to compete to win again. Zalatoris acknowledged in his interview today that he had been a bit burnt out with all of the events he played, and that he has been mostly away from the game over his two week break.
I’ll take even money on Todd in this matchup, expecting Zalatoris may show some rust in what may turn into tough conditions throughout the weekend.
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Matt Vincenzi
Peter Malnati (+105) over Adam Schenk
Schenk is a solid golfer and has been very consistent in route to one of the longest made cut streaks on TOUR (8). With that being said, I don’t see much upside with Schenk. His best finish in his past 14 starts was a 27th (Shriners). Malnati is scorching hot and I don’t quite understand why he is an underdog in this matchup.
I love the value on Malnati here and see it as an excellent matchup bet.
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