With the Masters only two weeks away, it's unlikely we'll see many of the big names tee it up before then.
That's the case this week at the Bermuda Championship. In what was originally scheduled as an alternate field event opposite of the WGC HSBC Champions in China, it now takes center stage with the cancellation of that event.
The Course
Port Royal Golf Course is short by PGA Tour standards, measuring at just over 6,800 yards for a par 71.
Last season was the first time we saw it, and Brendon Todd began his career resurgence with a win at 24-under par.
If it isn't windy, we can expect the scores to reach into the 20-under range again this week. But with many of the holes right along the ocean, wind is the biggest potential issue for players at this course.
Length is a benefit at Port Royal but as we saw with Todd last year, it's much more important to have the approach game dialed in and catch a hot putter.
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The Favorites
Two players sit at the top of the odds board this week. The defending champ Todd and Will Zalatoris are far and away the favorites. Zalatoris is slightly ahead at +1150 while Todd slots in just behind him at +1400 on DraftKings.
We only get two other players in the top tier this week with Harold Varner III at +2200 and Doc Redman at +2800 on BetMGM.
I really have no desire to dip into this range at this kind of event. Zalatoris is getting odds like it's a Korn Ferry event in a much deeper field. Todd, even though he played well here a year ago, is far from a prolific winner in his career.
The Mid-Tier
There were plenty of guys I had an eye on in this range, and I was hoping one or two would slip through the cracks. Denny McCarthy, Peter Malnati, Cameron Tringale and Charley Hoffman drew my early attention, but I don't have a desire to play any of them in that +3000 range.
If I backed anyone, it would probably be Rasmus Hojgaard, who is listed at +4500 on DraftKings and has been among the best ball strikers in Europe over the past few months. He has a win on that tour a couple months back, but that seems to have come with a letdown. He hasn't finished inside the top 30 in four starts since.
Instead, this will be a week when I pepper the bottom of the board with longshots and hope one or two work their way into contention. That allows me to leave myself more a chance to add a player or two in the middle of the event.
My only play in the range to start the week will be Chesson Hadley at +9000 on DraftKings. Hadley's game is similar to Todd in that he's at his best when the course doesn't need to be overpowered. He can put the ball in play off the team and is usually a good iron player and putter on Bermuda greens.
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The Longshots
We've already seen a few long shots come through this fall while the stars were away, so I've got no problem backing a few players down in this range.
I'll start with Brice Garnett at 125-1 on BetMGM. Garnett is a player who doesn't really bomb it, so the shorter course will help him this week. What he does well is hit greens. At this event, he should have plenty of wedges and we'll just be looking for him to catch a hot putter. His lone victory on TOUR came at Corales in 2018, so there is a chance that this island golf in Caribbean suits his style.
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Next up is Chase Seiffert at 140-1 on Bet365. Seiffert in the same mold as the previous two picks. He's not going to overpower a course, but he's capable of hitting a lot of greens and is an above-average putter on Bermuda.
I'll also go with Nick Watney at 175-1 on Bet365. Watney relies more on his length than the previous picks, but has still shown the ability to beat the field average with approach in stronger fields than this. He's only lost strokes on approach three times in 2020. We've seen a bit of a veteran resurgence this fall with players like Stewart Cink and Martin Laird returning to the winners circle. Watney is my guy this week to continue that trend.
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Lastly, I'll go down to Ryan Blaum at 400-1 on DraftKings. Blaum hasn't shown much recently, which is why he's in this range to begin with. But what he has done in limited starts this year is gain strokes with his irons. He's one of the shorter hitters on tour and can struggle with accuracy at times, which leads to problems on most courses. But if there's anywhere that he can pop up and sneak in a good result, it's a place like Port Royal.
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This is a pretty wide open event in general, and I'll be looking to add bets on these guys throughout the week. Then, we'll keep an eye out over the first couple days for guys who are hitting a lot of greens but don't have the putter rolling for some live action.
The Bermuda Card
- Chesson Hadley +9000 (.37 units)
- Brice Garnett +12500 (.26 units)
- Chase Seiffert +14000 (.24 units)
- Nick Watney +17500 (.19 units)
- Ryan Blaum +40000 (.08 units)
Total Stake: 1.14 units
