Well after about three months away, the PGA TOUR is set to make its return this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial.
As fun as the Outlaw and Cactus Tours have been, it'll be nice to get back to betting some recognizable names.
Finding a winner in golf is already hard enough under normal circumstances, but after a layoff like this, it basically becomes a total crapshoot.
My first thought was to look at guys like Adam Scott or Patrick Cantlay, since they're both prone to taking a long time between starts. But, as luck would have it, neither of them are in the field this week.
My basic strategy for Colonial is to avoid the top of the board (shocker, I know) and back guys who have played well here before or have been playing in some competitive rounds recently.
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The Course
Colonial is a course that should be pretty familiar to the TOUR players. It's a par 70 that measures around 7,200 yards. One thing to keep in mind is that Colonial has a strong correlation to Harbour Town.
This has never really been a bomber's course. Kevin Na won here a year ago. Kevin Kisner and Jordan Spieth have wins here, as well.
Colonial usually is more of a precision course where guys can plot their way around. It will be interesting to see if accuracy plays a bigger role over the next month as there will be no fans to slow down wayward shots or trample down grass when players stray from the fairway.
Note: odds as of Monday morning.
The Favorites
World No. 1 Rory McIlroy tops the odds at +800 ($10 bet wins $80). Jon Rahm is next in line at +1000 and Justin Thomas is the lone player in the teens at +1600.
The +2000 range features a bunch of stars including Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele and Webb Simpson.
For the most part none of the golfers at the top of the board have too much history here. None of the aforementioned favorites have won here and only Rahm and Koepka have a runner-up finish.
Considering all the unkowns this week, it's just easier to avoid these prices and target some value in the middle of the board.
The Mid-Tier
With a field strength comparable to a FedEx Cup event, we're seeing some fairly large numbers on some good players. These type of odds are usually reserved for the Majors.
It really is just a guessing game how each player will handle this layoff, but I've found a half-dozen guys that, for one reason or another, should at least be trending in the right direction.
I'll start with Rickie Fowler at +3500 (DraftKings). The betting market's love for Rickie seems to have faded and with good reason. Fowler is currently in a stretch where he has one win on TOUR in the last 40 months.
His results have been inconsistent here, but he does own a top-5 finish and Colonial is a course that should suit his game though.
We did get to check in on Rickie a few weeks back in his skins match against Dustin Johnson and McIlroy and his game looked solid. It's not worth much but at least he's had to pick up a golf club for some kind of competition recently.
I just get the feeling that it would fit right into the Fowler narrative to win something like Colonial against a really solid field and re-spark that Major talk for 2020.
Next, I'll back Tony Finau at +4500 (DraftKings). I mentioned this isn't really a bomber's course, but Finau finished second here a year ago, so something clearly fit his eye.
The layoff is clearly boosting the price on some big names and Finau fits the bill. He is listed at +4000 or lower for each of the 2020 Majors, and while this is a strong field, it's not a Major and we're getting a bigger number.
Two years removed from a win here, Justin Rose is also worth a flutter +5000 (DraftKings). He's struggled over the past year but his issues can likely be attributed to his switch to Honma clubs. But with that deal in the past now, Rose could be primed for some better results.
Prior to the stoppage, Rose missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer sans Honma, but his poor play was due to the fact he lost a little over 5.5 strokes in two rounds with the putter, not his ball-striking.
I'm also going to take a chance on young Viktor Hovland at +7000 (DraftKings). Hovland broke my heart when he edged out Josh Teater to win in Puerto Rico, but I like the getting him in this range.
Hovland has been playing a few tournaments in Texas during the hiatus, and while the results were nothing to write home about, he should be less rusty than many other players in this weekend's field.
My last play in this range will be Abraham Ancer at +8000 (BetMGM). Like Hovland, Ancer has teed it up in Texas for an event during the break and that will hopefully help him get back in the swing of things.
Ancer is one of those guys who everybody expects will win an event in the near future and even though his results haven't been great at Colonial, his Texas roots should only help.
The Longshots
Plenty of big names have won this tournament, but thanks to the layoff, there's a decent chance that a longshot will come in warmed up and take down a title.
Joaquin Niemann is certainly worth a shot at 100-1 (BetMGM). The Chilean has a couple of decent results at Colonial and does have a win this season. His game wasn't in good shape before the break, so the pause really couldn't have hurt him much. I'll back the talent at triple digits.
Two players I like for top-20 bets are Brendon Todd (+17500 to win; +600 for top-20) and Jazz Janewattananond (+27500 to win; +1000 for top-20) at DraftKings.
Todd has finished inside the top-5 here before and, since this course de-emphasizes the driver, Colonial should fit his game.
Jazz has been playing Florida mini-tour events over the past couple of months and while the results haven't been eye-popping, he won't be rusty.
Jazz has done all his damage in Asia, but has yet to really show up and play well in the States. Given how much he's been playing recently, this might be his best shot to get a result and try to gain some status on the TOUR.
Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Picks
- Rickie Fowler (+3500 — DraftKings)
- Tony Finau (+4500 — DraftKings)
- Justin Rose (+5000 — DraftKings)
- Viktor Hovland (+7000 — DraftKings)
- Abraham Ancer (+8000 — BetMGM)
- Joaquin Niemann (+10000 — BetMGM)
- Brendon Todd Top-20 Finish (+600 — DraftKings)
- Jazz Janewattananond Top-20 Finish (+1000 — DraftKings)
