The American Express didn't go to well for us. None of the plays were ever in contention.
My basic strategy of limiting exposure as much as possible with that event continues to be the only thing going, because I still haven't cracked that tournament.
A few course history buffs probably found their way to Andrew Landry and his 200-1 number after a playoff loss a couple years ago. The form was non-existent, but sometimes, just going to a place where you've had success before is enough to get your game in the right spot.
We'll now turn our attention to the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines for one of the more star-studded events of this early portion of the calendar.
The Courses
The first two days will be split over Torrey Pines’ South and North courses with the players then using the South course twice over the weekend.
The South course is the better known of the two tracks, previously hosting 2008 U.S. Open. It’s a long and difficult par 72 measuring nearly 7,700 yards. On top of the length, it presents narrow fairways and deep rough to make one of the hardest driving tests on tour.
Length is an advantage, but only if golfers can keep the driver in play. It's more of a total driving test and will put an emphasis on the short game. Shorter, more accurate hitters like Brandt Snedeker, Ben Crane and K.J. Choi have had success here over the past decade.
This will also be the first time we've seen poa annua greens this year after a few weeks on Bermuda. So I'll look more at golfers who've had success on the West Coast golfers and are comfortable on that surface.
The North course is the easier of the two tracks and plays about 450 yards shorter than the South. It has played about a shot harder since being renovated after the 2016 tournament, but it still plays about 1.5 strokes easier than the South course.
If your book provides a first round leader option, I'd target guys playing on the North Course.
The Favorites
Rory McIlroy makes his first start of 2020 and opens as the +600 favorite. He's a perfect fit with his strong game off the tee and is definitely a threat to ruin the betting cards. The hope will be he starts a little rusty after two months in between tournaments.
Jon Rahm is next at +800. This other potential card wrecker already has a win here in 2017 and was fifth a year ago.
No one has had more success at Torrey Pines than Tiger Woods at +1100. He's won here eight times, including the 2008 U.S. Open. He doesn't have a finish better than 20th though since 2013.
Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele are next in line at +1600. Rose is the defending champ and is coming off a runner up finish in Singapore to Matt Kuchar last week. Schauffele figures to be a popular pick with the tournament San Diego State grad being so close to home, but he's still without a finish better than 25th in four starts.
Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler are both at +2000. Hideki continues to get better at this tournament. He's improved his result three straight years, highlighted by a third place a year ago. Fowler is working on some swing changes and couldn't keep pace on the weekend after making the final group. He started his career playing well here, but hasn't finished inside the top 60 since 2013.
Tony Finau, Gary Woodland and Sung-Jae Im finish out this group with numbers between +2500 and +2800 depending on where you look. Finau and Woodland should be popular this week with each finishing inside the top 20 the last four years.
Woodland will be where I start my card this week at +2800. My concern with Woodland is his wins tend to come on shorter courses, but his consistent results and solid form should leave him with a good chance to contend this week.
The Mid-Tier
We'll start here with Marc Leishman at +5000. He's finished second twice here before, so it's a course that should suit him. Leishman also had a great ball-striking week at the Sony, but his short game was awful. If he can keep up the tee-to-green game and and the putter returns to its normal level, then he can hang around near the top of the leaderboard.
I'll also go with Cameron Champ at +8000. Champ's length will give him a chance to play well if the rest of his game cooperates. He's already won once in California this season, taking down the Safeway in the fall.
The Longshots
This hasn't really been a spot where the longshots have found success. Every winner since 2014 opened at +4000 or shorter.
We'll take one chance here with Tom Hoge at 200-1. Hoge has played well the last two weeks, finishing inside the top 15 on both occasions. He's struggled a bit here with three missed cuts in four events. But the one time he played the weekend, he came in 12th.
I'll also sprinkle in some top 5s on these guys when they became available and leave a little in reserve for live betting. This week, I'll be look at adding players live after their first round on the South course. It should be a couple shots harder and we might find value with them off the pace a bit after 18 holes.
The Farmers Insurance Card
- Gary Woodland +2800 (1.18 units)
- Marc Leishman +5000 (.66 units)
- Cameron Champ +8000 (.41 units)
- Tom Hoge +20000 (.17 units)
Total stake: 2.42 units
