The FedEx Cup playoff begin this week and even if they’ve always been a sprint at the end of the marathon, last year they became an even shorter sprint, with the series dialed back from four tournaments to just three.
This should essentially render it easier for those atop the points list to remain there upon the conclusion. This year, there’s not a fluke in the bunch, as the top-five are: Justin Thomas (+350), Collin Morikawa (+600), Webb Simpson (+1200), Bryson DeChambeau (+500) and Sungjae Im (+2000).
Just like an individual tournament, though, we should look beyond the favorites to find players who are capable of going on a three-week heater and winning the playoff title from further down the list. After all, four of the 13 previous winners were ranked 15th or lower prior to the start of the playoffs.
Let’s take a look at five guys who could win it this year at longer odds.
Odds via The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
No. 7 Daniel Berger (+2500)
In 12 of the 13 previous years that the playoffs have been contested, the eventual FedEx Cup champion won at least one of the individual playoff events. The lone outlier was 2018, when Justin Rose finished top-five in three of the four and took the title. Considering Berger’s recent consistency – he’s been 13th-or-better in seven of his last eight starts — it’s not out of the realm of possibility to believe he could post similar finishes for a similar result.
No. 8 Rory McIlroy (+1200)
The cons are easy to point out: Since the PGA TOUR restart, he hasn’t had a single top-10 finish and his wedge play has seemed increasingly lackluster.
But the pros are pretty glaring, too: McIlroy is the only player besides Tiger Woods with multiple FedEx Cup titles, he tends to step up his game this time of year and his price – more than twice that of DeChambeau, who’s only four spots ahead of him – might be too good to pass up.
No. 18 Hideki Matsuyama (+6000)
It’s been a somewhat quiet season for Matsuyama, who’s endured the worst putting numbers of his career, which is really saying something. His ball-striking, though, has remained characteristically indefatigable.
Granted, it’s a big if, but if Hideki can start rolling it better, he’ll put himself in position to win a few of these events. And really, all 60/1 plays are reliant on a big “if” anyway.
No. 36 Adam Scott (+8000)
Sure, he’s ranked outside the current cutoff to reach the Tour Championship, but with only eight – yes, eight – starts during the regular season, that’s actually pretty impressive.
At his points rate, if he’d played in twice as many events (like most others), he’d be sixth on the list right now, which tells us his point-per-event average is much higher than most players, not to mention he’s hardly running low on fuel after just one post-COVID start.
Others who fit this profile include No. 19 Tyrrell Hatton (+8000), who also made just eight starts, and No. 32 Patrick Cantlay (+4000), who made only 10.
No. 122 Shane Lowry (+50000)
On the heels of Jim Herman’s victory at the Wyndham Championship, everyone is going to be looking for a big longshot, so it might be worth a small play on Lowry here.
He just snuck into the playoffs this past week, but he’s now playing with the proverbial house money and he’s trending in the right direction. Other guys riding a wave of momentum include Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim and Billy Horschel, the latter of whom won the FedEx Cup from 69th on the points list just six years ago.
