After 19 months of waiting, Masters week is finally upon us.
Tiger Woods enters as the defending champ, but all eyes will be on Bryson DeChambeau this week after demolishing the U.S. Open at Winged Foot.
Perry's 2020 Masters Betting Guide
The Course
There probably isn't much I can say about Augusta National that you don't already know. It measures 7,475 yards for a par 72, but with rain expected at times throughout the week, it will probably play longer than that.
Players don't have to worry much about rough here, but can run into tree trouble or weird lies in the pine straw if they stray too far off-line.
Overall, this iconic track tends to benefit the longer hitters but it is the approach game that usually stands out for the winners. The long irons are particularly important in order to set up easy birdie chances on the par 5s.
Another note about Augusta is that scrambling from around the greens has more value than putting this week. We've seen players who typically struggle with the flat stick, like Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia, putt well enough to don the Green Jacket. The greens are extremely fast and lead to a lot of short misses from the entire field.
The Favorites
It's hard to remember a time when the top of the board felt so strong heading into a major.
Of the top 12 players on the oddsboard, only Rory McIlroy doesn't have a top-5 finish recently.
We'll start with Bryson DeChambeau at +800 ($10 bet wins $80). He already has a major to his name this season and with some shorter par 5s, he's capable of setting up plenty of scoring chances if the irons are just hovering around field average.
Dustin Johnson is right next to Bryson, between +800 and +1000 depending on the sportsbook, and is in a great run of form as well. He's played six events in the last three months and has finished sixth or better in each of them. Both Jon Rahm (+1100) and Justin Thomas (+1200) are coming off runner-up finishes at the Zozo Championship, so their form appears to be trending in the right direction, as well.
McIlroy and Xander Schauffele check in next at +1400. McIlroy has been slightly off since the restart, especially with the putter. Xander might be trending toward his major breakthrough. He was second at the CJ Cup last month and finished runner-up to Woods here last year.
Brooks Koepka rounds out this this range at +1600. The injury problems have been well documented for the past few months, but a fifth-place finish last week in Houston is a sign to be optimistic, even if he was mostly relying on a strong putter.
In that next range, I'll highlight two guys at +2800, Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Reed. Matsuyama was an early add for me at +4000, but his game hasn't really looked like ready for Augusta at any point. It was nice to see him grab a second-place finish in Houston last week to show some signs of life, but even that performance saw him putt well above average.
Reed is where I'll start adding to my card. He's finished inside the top-20 in each event he's played over the past two months, highlighted by a third-place finish at Wentworth, and has a win here back in 2018. I wouldn't dip below 25/1 on Reed, but he's definitely worth a hard look in this range.
The Mid-Tier
I'll start here with Jason Day, who I added a few months ago at +6000. He's currently +4000 on Bet365 and FanDuel and as low as +2800 at DraftKings. I don't know if I'd go that far down on his number, but keep an eye out for some drift as the favorites attract more and more money throughout the week. Day has been struggling with his game, but he turned in a solid summer and did just finish seventh in Houston. Perhaps he is poised for a big week.
I'm going to add Cameron Smith at +8000. He's coming off a great week at the Zozo where he finished fourth and gained nearly five strokes on the field with his ball-striking.
Smith finished fifth here two years ago, so if the game is dialed in from tee-to-green, he's capable of making a run and even though I wouldn't dip too much further than this number, Smith could be a good top-10 play if that's your thing.
The Longshots
With all the favorites in such good form, it's really hard to see an outright winner coming from this range.
I have Matt Wallace on the card from 15 months ago at 150/1 and that number never really moved. I don't think there's anything really pointing to him have a great week, either.
I will tack on Jason Kokrak here to close things out at 100/1 on FanDuel. He finally got the breakthrough win under his belt at the CJ Cup a month ago and is playing some of the best golf of his life. A win in his Masters debut is highly unlikely, but he's worth a look at triple-digit odds or even just as a top-20 or top debutant prop play.
The Masters Card
- Patrick Reed +2800 (1.17 units)
- Cameron Smith +8000 (.41 units)
- Jason Kokrak +10000 (.33 units)
Early Plays
- Hideki Matsuyama +4000 (.83 units)
- Jason Day +6000 (.55 units)
- Matt Wallace +15000 (.22 units)
Total Stake: 3.51 units
