We were treated to an absolutely fantastic day of golf on Friday at The Masters, as players got in position to finish Round 1 just after sunrise, and the afternoon wave was halted in progress when there was no daylight remaining this evening.
Just past the halfway mark of the second round we have a four-way tie at the top, including two of the top three players in the world in Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas. The third, Jon Rahm, will have a five-foot putt to start his day on Saturday morning to join them at 9 under.
Perhaps the biggest story of the day was an unfortunate situation on the third hole, where Bryson DeChambeau and everyone around that area searched for his drive which hooked into the left rough. After the three minutes were up, he was forced to go back to re-tee despite it being clear that his ball was lost in a general small radius about fifteen yards left of the fairway and just thirty yards short of the green. He would go on to make a triple-bogey 7, sending his Masters into a tailspin, and leaving him in doubt to play the final two rounds.
It speaks to how crazy the day was, that we are to my fourth summary paragraph and I am yet to mention that Phil Mickelson is just four shots back of the current lead through two rounds. Oh, and that Tiger guy is at -4 himself, just five shots behind.
We again head into an overnight scenario where we don't know exactly how the final holes of the second round will play out, and now there will be a cut between rounds. The most likely scenario is a move to a -1 cut, but either way there will be an edge — especially in DFS — as players move in or out of playing Round 3 right before lock.
I'll again focus on my favorite bets to win, as we don't have matchups or other markets available between rounds. There is still plenty of good betting opportunity, as it's a jumbled leaderboard with 21 players within four shots of the lead.
Top Tier
The biggest decision-maker for any bets you might place within the top tier of the leaderboard is based on how you think Rahm finishes his second round. As I mentioned, he has a five-foot putt on the 13th for birdie, then has, at minimum, two very accessible holes on the 15th and 16th.
If you believe he will close out his round as the outright leader, then you should wait to see that happen before pulling the trigger. That stance makes sense, especially when looking at the odds, as Rahm now has the lowest odds to win.
I'll be making that play myself, and keeping an eye on the odds for Patrick Cantlay, who sits at 8 under, currently one shot back. He's listed right now at +1400 at BetMGM, and I would expect that number to grow should Rahm take the lead.
Cantlay matched the best round of the day with a 6-under 66 in Round 2, despite a bogey on his opening hole. He was my pick to win to start the week, and has the experience down the stretch at The Masters after contending with Tiger in 2019. I still like him to come through this week, and as the number drifts towards +2000 I'm willing to gather more exposure.
Mid-Tier
The number that jumped out the most as I shopped the post-round markets was Sungjae Im, who is in the clubhouse at 8 under, but priced with the players a 4 and 5 under. The part that makes it odd is that Im is the 25th-ranked player in the world; he's not some unknown that came out of nowhere and flashed near the top of the leaderboard.
Sungjae won at The Honda Classic last season, then followed it up with a third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Both of those events feature top-level fields, and he has shown he can contend on this stage.
It will certainly be a feat for him to overcome many of the top players in the world to win a green jacket this week, but the +3300 he is listed at on BetMGM is not in line with where he should be with his current positioning.
Longshot
I am seeing too long of odds on Webb Simpson, and it speaks to the variance in the current betting markets. I started to write Webb as an additional mid-tier play when I saw him at +5000 on BetMGM, but looking further, he is all the way out to +8000 on DraftKings.
Scanning the leaderboard, you'll have to scroll a bit to find Webb at 3 under in a tie for 27th, but that doesn't tell the whole story. His first shot on Saturday morning will be a three-foot eagle putt on the Par-5 15th, which should vault him to 5 under par. He'll then take all those good feelings into the attackable Par-3 16th, with a chance to move into the Top 15.
Simpson quietly finished fifth at the 2019 Masters, and it's been well documented how he has turned into a different player since his win at The Players in 2018. He had two victories in the 2020 season, and it wouldn't shock anyone if the seventh-ranked player in the world wins his first major since the 2012 US Open.
The +8000 is a crazy number any way you cut it, and it's more reflective of his current position on the leaderboard, not accounting for his chance to move two shots with one short putt to start his morning.
