Longshots have had plenty of success already in the 2020/21 PGA TOUR season. In fact, there have been six triple-digit winners since the new season started back in September (Robert Streb, Carlos Ortiz, Martin Laird, Brian Gay, Hudson Swafford and Stewart Cink), and two others (Sergio Garcia and Jason Kokrak) went off at least 60/1.
And you wonder why we love betting on golf so much?
Here are our favorite longshot bets and sleeper picks for the 2020 Mayakoba Classic:
Jason Sobel
Robby Shelton (+27500)
Even though Shelton MC’d in each of his last two starts, one was missed by a single stroke and the other started with an opening 78 before a 70 the next day. It doesn’t feel like Shelton is too far removed from playing solid golf, as he went T-21 and T-34 in his previous two appearances.
Last year, a final-round 65 vaulted him into a share of sixth place at this event, so there’s some history here. With longer odds than some players whose world ranking number is twice as big, I don’t mind sprinkling a little on Shelton outright, plus top-10/20.
Josh Perry
Austin Cook (+12500)
Cook went through a rough patch with the irons for much of the past year, but seems to have snapped out of that funk during the Fall Swing; he gained 10 strokes combined at the Shriners and Safeway.
If he can find a way to duplicate those performances, his usually-solid short game should help him contend on this course at a big number.
Matt Vincenzi
Keegan Bradley (+7000)
Keegan has been playing some good golf of late, ranking seconnd in the field on approach, fourth in opportunities gained and 17th in fairways gained in his past 24 rounds. El Camaleon favors golfers who find the fairway consistently and give themselves plenty of birdie opportunities, which Bradley does.
When we saw him last he finished 15th at the RSM Classic and his ball-striking was off the charts as it usually is, but his putter let him down (once again) as he lost 4.6 strokes on the greens.
While the flat stick is a major concern, there is reason to believe that the 34-year-old can find his stroke this week. Keegan has some encouraging history on coastal paspalum including a 12th-place finish at the 2020 Sony Open (Waiʻalae Country Club), 2nd at the 2017 CIMB Classic (TPC Kuala Lumpur) and 15th at the 2015 OHL at Mayakoba (El Camaleon).
Bradley has the iron game to compete with anyone on TOUR, if he can just putt to field average this week he’s going to get himself into contention.
Chris Murphy
Chez Reavie (+7500)
It’s been a roller coaster ride for Chez Reavie going back to the summer and the Return to Golf. He simply hasn’t been able to put anything together consistently, as he flashes some good finishes the misses cuts. In fact, he has more missed cuts than top-20s dating back to June, but in those he also has a sixth at the WGC St Jude and a third more recently at the Safeway.
My pick here is leaning more on his course history than any predictive tendency with his form, as Reavie has made the cut in his last four appearances in Mexico, including one top-5 finish.
He’s a longshot for a reason, but I am betting that the good vibes of a place he plays well will bring out the good Chez Reavie this week.
