If you want to get an idea for how loaded the field is for the 2020 Memorial Tournament, scroll past the favorites and take a gander at some of the names in the 50-1 range.
Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, Paul Casey and Sungjae Im are all at 50-1 or higher at some sportsbooks this week. Anyone of those players could win at a moment's notice and yet, bookmakers have no choice to but to hang them in the Mid-Tier because of the starpower at the top of the board.
How should a bettor navigate a field with this much talent? What should you do with Tiger? Which longshots can make a run up the leaderboard?
Check out our favorite bets for the 2020 Memorial below:
Outright Bets
Jason Sobel
Xander Schauffele +3100 ($10 bet wins $310)
A big-boy field this week should bring out the best of the best and few elevate their games to a higher level against the stiffest competition than Schauffele, who’s had some of his best results in the biggest events.
When X-man doesn’t have his best results is right before he wins, with finishes of 35-20-48-8 in the starts before each of his four victories, which should have those fretting about a T-14 result during which he never contended feeling better about his prospects this week.
This wasn’t an easy choice – and if your pre-tourney pick to win is named Bryson or Rory or Justin, I have no problem with it – but Schauffele has been gradually trending toward his first win in a year-and-a-half, and it’s certainly within reason to think it could happen this week.
Josh Perry
Abraham Ancer +4500
I’m sticking with ball-striking this week and few players have struck the ball better than Ancer recently.
Given his improvement over the past year, I think Muirfield Village should suit him better than his past results here suggest. Ancer will just need the putter to cooperate and he can contend with a stacked field.
Bryan Mears
Jon Rahm +2200
Rahm has been up and down lately, but the long-term talent is undeniable. And remember, Rahm is just 25 years old. We’re rightfully getting excited about a lot of the young talent on tour right now after seeing Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and others play so well, but Rahm is in that camp. He’s actually younger than Bryson.
This is a tougher field, but this number is just too low on Rahm, who is definitely one of the top-three or so golfers in the world, but he’s priced as the 7/8th right now at FanDuel.
A lot of people will be jumping on the hot names who have played really well since the COVID-19 return, but I’ll take this time to buy one of the world’s best golfers at a price I wasn’t expecting to see.
For what it’s worth, I think there’s some more value in this top range with two more golfers right now in Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama. All three of those guys are fine bets at their current prices.
Collin Wilson
Webb Simpson +2500
There were five statistical metrics that led me towards Collin Morikawa at the 2020 Workday Charity Open. I'm sticking with those stats again this week, but I'm also going to weigh driving accuracy and fatigue.
The rough will be grown an extra inch for The Memorial, so hitting fairways will become even more important. I usually wouldn't buy into a fatigue narrative, but there are some players like Viktor Hovland, Bubba Watson and Emiliano Grillo, who are playing their sixth tournament in a row.
Webb Simpson took last week off, so I expect him to be fresh, and he ticks all the statistical boxes I'm looking for this week. Simpson ranks inside the top-10 this season in ball-striking, Strokes Gained: Approach and Greens in Regulation (GIR) and he sits inside the top-20 in driving accuracy.
Sleeper Picks
Jason Sobel
Shane Lowry +15000
Are you a fan of biorhythms and body clocks and things like that? Can’t say I’ve ever really thought much about when players play their best golf, but I’ve started considering it lately.
When Daniel Berger won at Colonial, it was his third career win during that exact week. Koepka contended at Harbour Town on the same date he’s usually winning the U.S. Open.
So why not Lowry, who won The Open during this week last year, is fresh off a final-round 69, has won before in Ohio and might own an advantage if summer rain again impacts this week’s event.
Josh Perry
Corey Conners +13000
The number on Conners has basically double in this stronger field.
When Conners is at his best, his tee-to-green game will allow him to hang around with anybody. The problem is that he rarely gets his putter to cooperate with the rest of his game. The good news is that the supposedly fast greens for this week should level the playing field a bit and that could give Conners a fighting chance.
We’ve seen longshots pull out some surprises at Memorial recently and I think Conners is the one with the best chance this week.
Bryan Mears
Lucas Glover (+12500)
Glover is interesting this week given the potential course fit at Muirfield given his iron play, along with his current form. Since the COVID-19 layoff, he’s been inside the top-25 in all four of his events, and he’s absolutely dominated with the approach game, consistently nailing greens.
Given how loaded this field is, I’d prefer to bet him for a top-20 or take him as a low-priced DFS play, but there’s no doubt that he’s underpriced in both of those markets.
Collin Wilson
Adam Hadwin +11000
I'm targeting good ball-strikers who are accurate off the tee this week so Hadwin fits the bill. The Saskatchewanian ranks inside the top-30 in ball-striking, driving accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach and Greens in Regulation this season.
Hadwin also has a top-20 finish and he finished fourth at the Rocket Mortgage, so there's a few reasons to throw some sleeper money at these odds.
Prop Bets
Jason Sobel
Charl Schwartzel Top-40 Finish (+300)
There aren’t many oft-forgotten Masters champions, but Schwartzel has largely become an afterthought nine years removed from his biggest victory.
He’s not the same player he was then, but on any given week, he can spring to life and post a strong finish, as he did with a T-3 at last year’s Dunhill Links and a T-5 at Pebble earlier this year.
Despite MCing last week, he’s made the cut in seven of his last nine Memorial starts, with finishes of 35th-or-better in each of them, plus a couple of top-10s. This feels like a nice play on a course horse here.
Josh Perry
Xander Schauffele Top-20 Finish (+125)
Xander likes showing up when fields are at their strongest and it’s hard to imagine many fields being more competitive than Memorial this week.
He was 14th last week and 14th at the 2019 Memorial, so I’ll take plus money for him to slot inside the top-20.
Bryan Mears
Billy Horschel Top-20 Finish (+300)
What does my man Billy have to do to get some respect around here?
The guy just finished seventh last week on this very course, along with a ninth-placer last year at the Memorial with a tougher field. He missed two cuts prior to last week’s outing, but even that last missed cut at the Travelers was promising: He hit over 72% of his greens in regulation but had an outlier bad putting performance.
The short stick was there in a big way last week on these Muirfield greens, and I like him to repeat a good showing in Week 2. At 3/1 to bank a top-20 and at $7,500 on DraftKings, he’s an easy buy for the second week in a row.
Collin Wilson
Gary Woodland Top-20 Finish (+175)
Woodland may sneak under the radar since he never contended at the Workday Charity Open. Woodland's opening round 73 kept him from threatening the top of the leaderboard last week, but he followed that up with three solid rounds of 68, 66, and 69, respectively.
Woodland's metrics saw a similar rebound after a dud on Thursday. Hold the line and keep wagering on the former Kansas Jayhawk.
Matchup Bets
Jason Sobel
Sergio Garcia (-120) over Jordan Spieth
Somehow, it’s been a dozen years since the last time Sergio teed it up at Muirfield Village, which seems strange for two reasons: 1. This tourney tends to attract the best of the best and he’s certainly qualified during that period; and 2.
This is a second-shot golf course, which should suit his game perfectly. Back when he did play here, Garcia’s results were actually pretty good, including a runner-up result back in 2001.
Even if he’d never seen the property, I’d take him in this matchup based purely on ball-striking alone. Sergio ranks 55th this season in strokes gained approaching the hole, while Jordan ranks 160th. Those are numbers which should be magnified this week.
Josh Perry
Hideki Matsuyama (-125) over Tiger Woods
I feel like we know what we’ll get with Hideki this week. He’s probably going to hit the ball well enough to hang around the top 20 and if his putter isn't a disaster, he can contend.
With Tiger, we don’t know exactly what to expect. We’ve seen a lot of players need to shake off rust over the past month, so seeing Tiger start slow and miss the cut would not be a big surprise.
He’s definitely capable of anything this week, but he’s finished behind Hideki the past two years at Memorial and had a lot more reps heading into those events than he does this year.
Odds via The Westgate SuperBook.
Bryan Mears
Patrick Cantlay (+120) over Bryson DeChambeau
This one is admittedly scary given Bryson’s beefed-up game right now. But while Memorial will back up the tees a bit compared to last week’s Workday event, I still think he’ll have trouble simply overpowering this course, which caters to ball-strikers.
And for all of Bryson’s strengths, Cantlay is simply the superior ball-striker. He has amazing history at this course, just got a look at it again last week, and fits it almost perfectly. I’ll fade golf’s biggest story right now and take the quiet ball-striker at +120 odds.
Collin Wilson
Lucas Glover (-125) over Scottie Scheffler
This bet is a combination of a few things. I am bullish on Glover's recent form and bearish on Scheffler, who I think may be battling some fatigue issues. This is Scheffler's fifth tournament in the last six weeks and he's missed the cut three weeks on the spin.
Additionally, Scheffler leaves something to be desired with his driving accuracy, ranking 99th in that category this season. This is not a course where you can get away with spraying the ball off the tee.
Glover, who has made six cuts in a row at the Memorial, is 15th in ball-striking and 37th in driving accuracy and has finished inside the top-23 in his first four starts since the hiatus.
