The return of the PGA TOUR sure was entertaining.
It felt like no matter what direction you went with your betting card, you had a sweat going Sunday afternoon at Colonial.
Eventually it was Daniel Berger who got to the winner's circle in the +6600 range, thanks in large part to a couple of horrible horseshoes.
Justin Rose gave us a chance on the 18th to sneak into a playoff but in the end, we had to settle for a top-5 finish from the Englishman.
Now we set our sights on the RBC Heritage, which features another loaded field at an intriguing course.
RBC HERITAGE PROMO! Win $100 if Rory McIlroy makes just ONE birdie all week
The Course
Harbour Town is one of the more interesting stops on tour. It's a par 71 checking in at around 7,100 yards and has a strong correlation to Colonial, which we saw last week. Similar players tend to play well at both places, so last week's form could easily carry over.
It features tree-lined fairways with a few more hazards than Colonial and the wind tends to be a problem for players, although it's too early to for forecasts to project a troubling amount of breeze.
Harbour Town tends to take the driver out of play more than Colonial and players don't really have the option to bomb-and-gauge out a short wedge because, on about five holes, the fairway stops entirely and turns into a native area.
The Favorites
The top guys are back again, but we've seen some shifting in the odds. Rory McIlroy is back atop the oddsboard at +1200 for his first start at Harbour Town since 2009.
You can expect Bryson DeChambeau to be a popular pick even at +1400. He owns a pair of top-5 finishes here and finished in third last week.
He's shown he knows how to strategically plot his way around this course, so it'll be interesting to see how he incorporates his newly found distance at a place that negates that advantage as well as anywhere.
Justin Thomas (+1600) and Jon Rahm (+1800) are the only other two golfers under 20-1, though neither have any course history to point to. Thomas has a couple appearances here without a top-10 finish and this will be Rahm's first stop at Harbour Town.
Two guys who probably feel like they let a win slip away, Xander Schauffele (+2000) and Collin Morikawa (+2800), close out this range.
Wouldn't be surprised if either is right back near the top again.
[Sobel: Matsuyama, NeSmith Poised for Big Weekends at Harbour Town]
The Mid-Tier
As usual, this is where I'll be starting out my card.
I'm treating this a lot like the Sony Open, where if guys didn't play last week, I'll just cross them off. That goes for guys like Tyrrell Hatton and Hideki Matsuyama, who were both playing very well last time we saw them, but I don't want to guess at how their last three months were spent so I'll pass.
We'll start here with Webb Simpson (+3000, $10 bet wins $300). Simpson burned a lot of people at Colonial with a missed cut, but I like him this week on a course where he's made nine straight weekends in the last decade and owns two top-five finishes.
He had a really bad opening round, but bounced back on the second day and gained over three strokes ball-striking. His putter just didn't heat up enough to make the weekend. That's a less of a concern for me with the change to Bermuda, which has been a better surface for Webb in his career.
I'm also going to jump on Sungjae Im (+3500) in this range.
Im continued his steady play last week with a 10th-place finish and gained strokes in all four areas.
Im missed the cut in his debut here a year ago, but he's gone to another level in the last year and seems to be a more complete player.
My last play in this range will be Gary Woodland (+3500).
Woodland played well last week and was the best player with the approach at Colonial. These shorter courses, like Pebble Beach and Copperhead, have always been where Woodland does his best work, though he doesn't have much course history here.
If Woodland's irons are dialed in like they were at Colonial he should fit in just fine at Harbour Town.
For these three, I wouldn't dip below that +3000 number.
Longshots
With three guys in the +3000 range, my card filled up pretty quickly.
I'll dabble with a couple of extreme longshots though, and will tack on a top-20 play.
We'll start with Matthew NeSmith at 250-1.
NeSmith is a South Carolina native and is a solid iron player. He also proposed to his wife on the 18th green here, so the course does hold a soft spot in his heart.
I'd definitely make sure you're getting at least 200-1 though and close to +1000 for a top-20 finish on him.
I'll end here with Bill Haas at 600-1. Haas has struggled for the past year or so and missed the cut by a wide margin at Colonial, but he actually led the field in approach for the first two days. He just managed to lose around nine strokes with the putter, which was the worst mark in the field by over two shots.
This is really just a shot in the dark and there's no reason to chase this below 500-1. It's been a long time since his game was in great shape, but he has played well in the past here, finishing seventh two years ago.
I'd want a pretty large top-20 number for him in the +1500 range.
The RBC Heritage Card
- Webb Simpson +3000 (1.1 units)
- Sungjae Im +3300 (1 unit)
- Gary Woodland +3500 (.94 units)
- Matthew NeSmith +25000 (.13 units)
- Bill Haas +60000 (.06 units)
