Buckle your seatbelts.
The 2020 U.S. Open has arrived and judging from reports at Winged Foot, the host of this year's second Major Championship, it's going to be an absolute grind out there in Mamaroneck, N.Y.
Narrow fairways, thick rough and fast greens should keep scoring low and that could lead to an interesting betting weekend. Will the tough conditions make this a more wide-open event? Or will the cream truly rise to the top?
Our experts share their favorite outright bets for the 2020 U.S. Open:
Jason Sobel
Jon Rahm (+900)
Are we finally past the point where observers still believe that Rahm’s emotional outbursts or his relative inexperience should prohibit him from being one of the top picks going into a major championship? We should be.
The guy owns immense talent, as evidenced by victories this summer at the Memorial Tournament and BMW Championship – easily the two most difficult setups since the PGA TOUR’s restart. He was also T-3 last year at Pebble Beach, just another sign pointing toward an impending title contention.
There are about 5-6 players who have played the best during the past few months and I’ll take Rahm to be the best of the best of this week.
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Josh Perry
Tommy Fleetwood (+3500)
Fleetwood’s game wasn’t in the best shape the last few times we saw him on the PGA TOUR. His ball-striking, especially with the approach, was all over the map. He seemed to iron out those issues last weekend in Portugal. Fleetwood didn't win, but that was because he lost six strokes with his putter. The tee-to-green numbers lapped field.
With his irons in a better spot, I think Fleetwood has a good chance to contend this week. He's already shown the ability to compete in a USGA set-up, tallying two top-five finishes in 2017 and 2018.
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Bryan Mears
Daniel Berger (+3500)
Among the golfers I think have a realistic shot at winning, my model shows the best raw value on Daniel Berger and Patrick Reed, two solid yet uninspiring options.
Among those two, I’ll go with Berger, who I think offers a good chunk of value at 35/1 at PointsBet. My model is a blend of recent and long-term form, with perhaps a bit more weighted on current form. And Berger’s is just about as good as anyone’s in the field – no one has noticed, though, due to Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm play god-like lately.
But Berger is fifth in this loaded field in current form, finishing in the top-three in four of his eight starts since the COVID-19 layoff. Outside of the short game, he doesn’t necessarily wow with any part of his game like a DJ or Collin Morikawa do, but his all-around game has been excellent. He seems to be finally getting back to high expectations he garnered as a younger golfer.
I mean, my model has DJ and Rahm in a field of their own this week, so they’re definitely the most likely guys to win this week. But if you’re just looking for a mid-tier guy who is more likely to win than his odds imply, Berger isn’t a bad option.
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Reid Fowler
Patrick Reed (+3300)
When looking at my favorite outrights for a major, an element of value needs to be accounted for with talent and current form, obviously. Sure, DJ, Rahm and JT are the overarching favorites, but at a difficult golf course, anything can happen.
Patrick Reed presents winning upside at a major (2018 Masters) and has shown the ability to grind out four rounds in the U.S. Open ranking fourth in SG: Total since 2015. Reed’s gained strokes off-the-tee in seven straight events and ranks inside the top 7 in SG: Par 4 since the restart.
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Matt Vincenzi
Justin Thomas (+1400)
JT is one of the most talented golfers in the world when he is clicking on all cylinders. At the TOUR Championship, Thomas gained 6.8 strokes Tee-to-Green and gained significantly in every statistical category with the exception of putting (-3.2).
In his past 24 rounds, he ranks second in the field on approach and fifth Tee-to-Green. In fact, he has gained strokes on approach in 16 of his past 17 starts, including his past seven.
Thomas is arguably the best iron player in the world which will surely come in handy in what should be an incredibly grueling test at Winged Foot. The ability to get from tee to green as efficiently as possible will be the key to victory. While his poor putting is a slight concern, two-putting for par this week may be all that is needed to get into contention.
Just five starts ago, JT won the WGC FedEx St. Jude while losing strokes on the greens (-1.9). If he can putt close to field average, Justin Thomas will have a strong chance to win the 2020 U.S. Open.
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