The top of the PGA TOUR oddsboard looks a little different this week.
Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy are taking the week off so we have a new favorite in town.
Justin Thomas (+1100) will wear the crown vacated by DeChambeau but he's got plenty of company as there are six golfers listed between +1000 and +2000 at DraftKings as of Tuesday night. Patrick Cantlay (+1300), Jon Rahm (+1300), Brooks Koepka (+1700), Xander Schauffele (+1700) and Hideki Matsuyama (+1700) are all right behind JT and the odds are telling us that this could really be anybody's week.
The wide-open nature of the Workday Charity Open should provide plenty of betting opportunities across the board.
Check out our favorite outrights, sleeper picks, prop bets and matchup bets for the 2020 Workday Charity Open.
Outright Bets
Jason Sobel
Cameron Champ +7500 ($10 bet wins $750)
Once upon a time – like, all the way back to two whole years ago – Champ was the Next Big Thing in golf, before Collin Morikawa and Sungjae Im and Viktor Hovland and Joaquin Niemann and Matthew Wolff and any other Next Big Thing that I’m leaving off this list. He won in his second start after getting a PGA TOUR card and backed it up with finishes of 11th-or-better in three of his next four events. And then… it all just stopped.
Champ put up an amalgam of mediocre results and MCs until this past fall when, out of nowhere, he won again. Since then, he’s yet to post another top-10 on his home circuit, though he came close with a T-12 in Detroit this weekend after earning late entry into the field on Wednesday.
With such an influx of potentially great young players, it’s easy to overlook Champ, but that would be a mistake. In a field flush with elite-level talent, he’s on the verge of reminding us that we shouldn’t forget about him on this list, too.
Josh Perry
Bubba Watson +8000
I’m not really loving much on this board, so I’ll take a flier with Bubba at anything north of 70-1.
Watson's results since the break have been inconsistent and his course history at Muirfield Village is up and down, but there's not that much risk going this far down the board.
If Bubba can work his way into contention, he's good enough to go toe-to-toe with any of the big names at the top of the board.
Bryan Mears
Jon Rahm +1500
As I wrote in my course breakdown piece, I think Muirfield this week is going to set up pretty easy: Ball-striking will likely remain a premium over distance, but in general this course is going to be scorable.
In that case, I really want to prioritize guys who can get hot and pour in a ton of birdies rather than ones who play consistent par golf.
And Rahm is perhaps the most extreme example of that type of golfer: He can disappoint at times with bogeys, but he can also go win a tournament by six strokes. When he’s hot, there may be no better golfer in the world — he’s done that multiple times in his career.
I normally don’t like taking guys to win in this range, but I do think Rahm is underpriced in the market currently. I think he should be in the 10-11/1 range, and he’s 15/1 at FanDuel and BetMGM.
Collin Wilson
Collin Morikawa +3300
I focused on five statistical categories to come up with my card for the 2020 Workday Charity Open.
Muirfield Village requires high marks in ball-striking, scrambling, par-3 scoring, par-4 scoring and driving accuracy. The three golfers that check in the top-50 of those respective statistics are Jon Rahm, Sungjae Im and Collin Morikawa.
The world is waiting for Rahm to break out and his price is too short for my liking, while Im's scrambling leaves something to be desired. That leaves Morikawa to tick all the boxes I'm looking for at Muirfield Village.
Sleeper Picks
Jason Sobel
Scottie Scheffler +9000 ($10 bet wins $900)
Will the real Scottie Scheffler please stand up?
Last week in Detroit, he posted back-to-back rounds of 79-65 to miss the cut, but at least get us excited about him moving forward. Maybe it shouldn’t matter much, but he also won the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship at the nearby Ohio State Scarlet Course last summer.
Perhaps a bit undervalued after a slow restart following the COVID-19 break, I like the idea of jumping on Scheffler for a title contention this week.
Josh Perry
Henrik Norlander +20000
Norlander is coming off a great ball-striking performance at Detroit Golf Club.
He gained over 10 strokes combined off the tee and with the approach to lead the Rocket Mortgage field by a wide margin. Unfortunately, the Swede's putter was ice cold.
The good news for this week is that Muirfield Village has been kind to poor putters in the past. Hideki Matsuyama has a win here and Byeong-hun An lost in a playoff against Bryson DeChambeau at the 2018 Memorial.
If the tee-to-green game carries over for Norlander, he could contend in this strong field.
Bryan Mears
Joel Dahmen +10000
My two favorite longer shots this week are Scottie Scheffler and Cam Champ, but since they’ve both been discussed here, I’ll give another I think is intriguing.
Dahmen didn’t play particularly well here at Muirfield in his first visit last year, but it’s really hard to ignore his form in 2020. He was awesome prior to the COVID-19 layoff, and in his three events since golf returned, he’s kept up the hot play. In that stretch, he’s hit nearly 75% of his greens, and he’s really racked up birdies consistent with some of the best in the field.
It’s obviously hard to hit a 100/1 longshot, but I do think he’s underpriced at DraftKings and should be more in the 65-70/1 range. I’d look to buy him in top-20 (or 30/40) markets, and I think he’s a strong DFS play who could go overlooked.
Collin Wilson
Kevin Streelman +7000
There are plenty of stats that are pointing me to Streelman.
Bryan Mears highlighted the importance of ball-striking, scrambling and par-4 scoring in his story about the most important metrics at Muirfield Village and our guy has those stats covered, and then some.
Not only does Streelman currently rank within the top-30 in ball-striking, long-term scrambling and par-4 scoring, but's he's been accurate off the tee the past few events and he has solid course history here, including four top-20 finishes since 2015.
Prop Bets
Jason Sobel
Maverick McNealy Top-20 Finish (+500, $10 bet wins $50)
If there’s a prevailing theme amongst my picks this week, it’s that there are a lot of young players who might be a little hungrier to compete than many of the veteran players who could essentially use this week as a warmup for the next one.
Coming off a final-round 66 to finish T-8 at the RMC, McNealy is riding a nice little wave of momentum into this one.
Josh Perry
Justin Rose Top-20 Finish (+163)
Rose has finished in the top-20 in six of his last eight starts at Memorial and has two top-20s in three starts since the hiatus.
The setup may be slightly different this week, but Rose is in solid form and should have enough good vibes to play well again this week.
Bryan Mears
Matthew Fitzpatrick Top-40 Finish (-110); Top British Golfer (+250)
I like Fitz in a variety of ways this week, whether it’s DFS or the betting market. For the latter, he’s -110 to get into the top-40, which I think is a strong bet. I also think the prop for him to be the top British golfer offers some value on him at +250.
Justin Rose is at +130, and I have those two players about even this week. Fitz has been great since the return outside of his missed cut last week, but I’m not too worried about that. He struck the ball incredibly well, hitting 75% of his greens, but just couldn’t get putts to go down. The short game is a long-term strength for him, so I think that was just a blip on the radar.
Fitz fits (you’re welcome) the mold of a golfer who can get hot and accumulate birdies, and I think he fits (OK, last time) this course really well. Distance shouldn’t be a huge factor, and the rest of his game is ideal for what Muirfield should offer.
Collin Wilson
Chris Kirk Miss Cut +100
Prior to his surprising display at The Rocket Mortgage, Chris Kirk had exactly one top-50 finish in the past year. I expect him to come back down to earth this week.
Despite inside the top-25 in MoTown, Kirk actually saw his season ball-striking numbers fall. He ranks outside the top-130 in that category now and I don't expect his putter will save him again this week.
Matchup Bets
Jason Sobel
Justin Rose (+110, $100 bet wins $110) over Brooks Koepka
While I also like defending Memorial Tournament champion Patrick Cantlay at the same price over Justin Thomas, this one is my favorite matchup on the board this week.
In 13 career starts at Muirfield Village, Rose has made 10 cuts, owns one win and two-runner-up finishes. With post-COVID break results of T-3 and T-14 before an MC at the Travelers, he’s been playing well with the new equipment and should be able to hold off Koepka coming off a two-week break.
Josh Perry
Viktor Hovland (+100) over Rickie Fowler
Hovland has been playing really well since the restart, finishing inside the top-25 in all four of his starts.
Fowler did seem to find some form in Detroit and has a good history here, but for the past month, Hovland has been the far more consistent player.
Viktor's tee-to-green game has been among the best on TOUR so I’ll take a chance with the guy playing better as a small underdog against a player in lukewarm form with a solid history here.
Bryan Mears
Patrick Cantlay (+110) over Justin Thomas
I know the betting market really likes JT this week, given that he’s the field favorite to win. He’s obviously an incredible golfer and should rebound from an abnormally poor putting outing at the Travelers Championship when he missed the cut.
But I just don’t see a big difference between him and Cantlay this week. Admittedly, Cantlay wasn’t as sharp with his irons as he normally is at the Travelers, but I think he’ll be able to turn that around given his long-term game.
And Muirfield clearly fits his eye: He won last year and got in fourth the year before. He sets up well for this course obviously, and I think anything plus money on him vs. JT is a solid buy. I’d have this more in the JT -115/Cantlay -105 range, which means I’m getting 15 cents of value in my opinion.
Collin Wilson
Patrick Cantlay (+110) over Justin Thomas
I will happily run with the Cantlay Flag in my largest wager of the weekend.
Thomas has finished inside the top-10 here in 2017 and 2018 and his stats will look good at any course, but Cantlay checks those boxes, too.
One of the key statistics for this tournament is long-term scrambling and Cantlay ranks sixth in this field over the last 75 weeks while Thomas sits in 46th. Additonally, I can't ignore the fact that Cantlay is the best long-term par-3 scorer in the field over the past year and that should be an important factor at a shortened Muirfield Village.
Thomas is one of the best bentgrass/POA annua putters in the world, but Cantlay is right behind him in strokes gained on the green.
