If you've been following along with my previews you had a good sweat going at the PGA Championship. Jason Day, Cameron Champ, Matthew Wolff and Xander Schauffele all provided moments of hope on Sunday afternoon but in the end, Collin Morikawa's iconic tee shot on the drivable 16th hole sealed the deal.
The world rankings are configured in such a way that it will now take something special from someone to keep Morikawa from finishing the year as the World No. 1 at this point.
We'll now shift to the Wyndham Championship, the final PGA TOUR event before the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Most of the big names will take the week off to be fresh for The Northern Trust.
At the other end of the table are a handful of players who need to have a good showing at Sedgefield Country Club so they can vault into the top-125 and continue their respective season.
That being said, the pressure isn't quite as intense as it usually is at this event because no players are at risk of losing their TOUR status if they fall outside the playoffs this week as the TOUR put a hiatus on the relegation and promotion to and from the Korn Ferry Tour due to the pandemic.
The Course
The Wyndham Championship will take place at Sedgefield Country Club, a Donald Ross design that is pretty well known at this point. Sedgefield measures 7,127 yards for a par 70.
Despite the lack of par 5s, the winner routinely reaches 20-under par. It is a simple course where accuracy off the tee and approach reign supreme. Couple those two things with a hot putter and you'll usually find the winner.
Webb Simpson has finished as runner-up the last two seasons and won this event in 2011. Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson and Si Woo Kim also have wins in recent seasons. All these players are known more for their iron play or putting than prowess off the tee.
The Favorites
Webb Simpson and Brooks Koepka opened as co-favorites this week at +1000. As mentioned, Simpson has a great history here and his current form suggests his game is ready for one of his preferred tour stops.
Koepka's motivation level is always a concern at these smaller events and if you blend that with a poor showing on Sunday it becomes tough to back him at this number.
Patrick Reed is next in line at +1400. Reed picked up his first career win here and has three other top-25 finishes since that 2013 victory. He's definitely a threat this week, but I prefer to grab him at bigger numbers in better fields.
Tommy Fleetwood and Paul Casey are both in that +2000 range, but are coming off very different Sundays.
Casey put up the best major performance of his career and matched Morikawa shot for shot before Collin delivered the final blow on No. 16.
Fleetwood was in position to make a run as well, but never really factored in the final result and faded down the leaderboard.
Casey has played well a handful of times at Sedgefield and if the letdown of second place isn't adding a hangover effect, there's no reason to believe he can't play well this week. Meanwhile, this will be Fleetwood's first trip to the tournament.
Justin Rose is the final guy in this range at +2200. Rose finished in the top-10 last week but his results have been pretty inconsistent. The PGA was his first made cut since the Heritage.
He's playing this tournament for the first time since 2009 when he took fifth.
The Mid-Tier
As usual, I'll be starting my card in this range. I'll be looking for good iron play this week and hoping one of these guys can catch a hot putter.
We'll start with Kevin Kisner at +4200 on DraftKings. Kisner quietly finished inside the top 20 last week on a course where it seemed like the bombers had a distinct advantage.
But Kisner contended thanks to gaining five strokes with his approach. He's now heading to a course that should suit his game better, as evidenced by his two top-10 finishes over his last three stops at Sedgefield.
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I'll also go to Russell Henley here at +5500.
Henley has been great with the approach for over a month now, but the putting has given him issues. He hasn't gained strokes with the putter since the RBC Heritage. That was also the last time he putted on Bermuda.
The shift back to his preferred surface may be the boost he needs to finally line up those approach numbers with a good putting week.
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The Longshots
I'm going to take a few chances down here as well. This is a good tournament to throw some darts down the board as four of the last six winners opened at +9000 or higher. Sedgefield is no stranger to unheralded champions.
I'm going to take another chance on Sam Burns at +12500. Burns strung together four solid results before a missed cut at the Barracuda. But I'm going to go back down here again with him drifting into the triple digits. The ball striking has been good so I won't back off him after a bad week at altitude.
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I'll take two more shots on Nate Lashley and Wes Bryan both at +25000.
Lashley has had a difficult restart, but made the cut at the PGA and gained strokes with his approach in that solid field. He won a Donald Ross course last year at the Rocket Mortgage so I'll take a shot that he can duplicate that success here.
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Bryan has been making cuts and driving the ball better since his return from injury. He's won at Harbour Town and there's been a little correlation between that course and Sedgefield in the past.
We've seen others like Simpson, Snedeker and Carl Pettersson win in both locations. Si Woo Kim is also a recent winner here and lost in a playoff at the Hertiage.
I like both these guys with the Top-20 option as well.
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The Wyndham Card
- Kevin Kisner +4200 (.66 units)
- Russell Henley +5500 (.6 units)
- Sam Burns +12500 (.26 units)
- Nate Lashley +25000 (.13 units)
- Wes Bryan +25000 (.13 units)
Total Stake: 1.78 units
