Eleven days after the last PGA TOUR season ended, a new one begins this week, with 48 tournaments throughout the next 11-and-a-half months.
Hope springs eternal for the sport’s elite professional golfers, just as it does for those who have a stake in the proceedings.
Long before I ever considered covering golf from a betting perspective, even before I started covering the game at all, I was playing in one-and-done pools – in some ways, golf’s version of your season-long fantasy football league.
For the previously uninitiated, these OADs are exactly what they sound like, with participants selecting one player for every tournament, but no player more than once. There are subtle variations from pool to pool; I play in one which requires two picks for every tournament, another for which picks need to be made in groups prior to the season and at a few checkpoints throughout, and yet another which only needs a pick submitted by the first tee time each week.
Most OADs start in earnest this January, as the football season wanes and the golf campaign comes into focus, framed by the backdrop of breaching whales and unending rainbows at Kapalua.
Only the heartiest of souls will kick off these pools at this week’s season-opening Fortinet Championship, choosing players for the nine fall events before the calendar turns over. A salute to those who indeed go the distance, grinding over a pick for Napa while the rest of the world is more concerned with checking the waiver wire for a backup quarterback.
The following OAD plays are geared toward full-season pools, though anyone waiting until January can certainly bookmark this link until then.
Before we get into specific picks for specific events, let’s delve into some strategy. I’ve written these tips in the past, but whether you need a refresher or you’re diving in for the first time, here are some suggestions to help you along:
1. Give yourself a chance.
There’s nothing worse than taking a DNS (Did Not Start), watching your player’s name never show up on the entry list while your fellow pool competitors wave to you from the passing lane. You’ll always endure some MCs (Missed Cut), but do some research and pick guys who should at least play in those given events.
2. Nobody is Nostradamus.
Don’t get too discouraged. You might start out DFL on your pool’s leaderboard after the West Coast Swing, but things can change in a hurry. Somebody might peel off a few early wins, but it’s difficult to maintain consistency in these pools. Just like a pro who shoots 78 in the first round, keep your head up and stay positive.
3. Don’t overrate the majors.
I used to break this rule every year. They’re the four biggest tournaments, I’d reason, so I should pick four of the best players. Sure, there’s more money available at the majors, but how often do we see chalk anyway? For example, you might like Jordan Spieth at the Masters, but really like him at Pebble Beach, where he’s won previously. If you think it’s a sure thing, do it. Here’s another reason: History doesn’t always repeat itself in golf. In fact, it often doesn’t. Don’t be afraid to fade the chalk at the big ones and use ‘em elsewhere.
4. Remember the young ‘uns.
This always happens: A month into the calendar, an up-and-comer will have posted three top-10s, and you’ll be kicking yourself for leaving him off your final list. It’s impossible to predict how every Korn Ferry promotion will perform, but don’t get so locked into past results that you forget to include guys like Mito Pereira and Stephan Jaeger (or, of course, Will Zalatoris) on your list.
5. Play some hunches.
History doesn’t always repeat itself. In fact, it often doesn’t. Sure, there are times when you look at a player’s recent results at an event, see he finished 2nd-5th-3rd the last three years, and lock him in. Nothing wrong with that. But don’t fall into the trap of thinking that just because a player was top-five the previous year, he’ll easily do it again. In particular, I like looking for outlier scores. If you notice a player finished 29th at a tourney with four rounds of 68 and a third-round 79, there’s a good chance that course fits his eye and he simply had one bad day.
For this article, I’ve included three potential selections at every upcoming PGA TOUR stop.
Old Reliable (OR): A player who traditionally fares well at that given event.
Course Horse (CH): A player whose game should match up with the host venue.
Wild Card (WC): A player who I particularly like at a specific event, whether because of an underlying narrative, a home-field advantage or just as a “hunchy” play.
Let’s get to the picks, based on a standard OAD league (which means no defending champions included).
Fortinet Championship (Sept. 16-19)
Defending Champion: Stewart Cink
OR: Brendan Steele
CH: Chez Reavie
WC: J.J. Spaun
Even if your OAD requires making picks for every tournament this week, before the season even starts, this should be the one event where you absolutely, positively won’t take a DNS. Check the field for the former Safeway Open, and don’t be afraid to consider a player straight off the Korn Ferry Tour (or one who played in the Korn Ferry Finals) who was trending upward at the end of that season.
Sanderson Farms Championship (Sept. 30-Oct. 3)
Defending Champion: Sergio Garcia
OR: Corey Conners
CH: J.T. Poston
WC: Aaron Rai
There are only a handful of venues each season where the short-knockers have as much of a chance as the bombers. You probably already know all about Waialae, Harbour Town and Colonial, but CC of Jackson is a similar strong fit for these types of players. Find a guy whose game favors precision over power.
Shriners Children’s Open (Oct. 7-10)
Defending Champion: Martin Laird
OR: Kevin Na
CH: Ryan Moore
WC: Kurt Kitayama
I’m admittedly guilty of falling for the “player sleeping in his own bed” narrative too many times over the years, but I think that notion could be more relevant during the two-week Las Vegas Swing than anywhere else. If I have to explain why playing here might be a bit distracting for out-of-towners, well, then you clearly need to buy a plane ticket. It’s hardly a foolproof plan, but give me a guy with some Vegas ties who won’t be too dazzled by all the bright lights.
The CJ Cup (Oct. 14-17)
Defending Champion: Jason Kokrak
OR: Si Woo Kim
CH: Kevin Na
WC: Charley Hoffman
This is a South Korea-based event, which was played in Las Vegas last year and will be played in Las Vegas again this year, but at The Summit Club for the first time. I’ll give this one the ol’ shoulder-shrug emoji, while listing one player sponsored by the title sponsor and two others who are Sin City residents.
Zozo Championship (Oct. 21-24)
Defending Champion: Patrick Cantlay
OR: Hideki Matsuyama
CH: Corey Conners
WC: Sebastian Munoz
Be very careful here: As part of the erstwhile Asian Swing, big-name players could double-up (or triple-up) with the CJ Cup and/or the WGC-HSBC Champions, but as a one-off, a mid-autumn trip to Japan might not be as appealing for some – and you don’t want to take a DNS at a guaranteed-money event.
Bermuda Championship (Oct. 28-31)
Defending Champion: Brian Gay
OR: Hank Lebioda
CH: Doug Ghim
WC: Roger Sloan
With only a two-year history, there isn’t much to go on, but consider this: Both of the champions so far rank amongst the shortest hitters on the PGA TOUR each season, so this is a good spot to take a non-bomber whom you like.
Worldwide Technology Championship at Mayakoba (Nov. 4-7)
Defending Champion: Viktor Hovland
OR: Pat Perez
CH: Scott Piercy
WC: Brian Stuard
Hovland’s victory last season notwithstanding, this is one where veteran players have often thrived. Whether it’s been a career resurrection or just another trophy on the mantle, experience is usually well represented on this leaderboard.
Houston Open (Nov. 11-14)
Defending Champion: Carlos Ortiz
OR: Cameron Tringale
CH: Talor Gooch
WC: Sepp Straka
If you’re paying attention, this could be a nice place for a big payday, as each of the players listed above could/should be somewhat low-owned in any OAD, but each has been trending in the right direction at this event.
The RSM Classic (Nov. 18-21)
Defending Champion: Robert Streb
OR: Chris Kirk
CH: Patton Kizzire
WC: Davis Riley
Pick your favorite SEC grad who loves putting on Bermuda and probably has a bunch of Vineyard Vines and Peter Millar shirts in his closet. There’s a definitive profile for those who tend to play well at Sea Island – and many of those players only live a few minutes away.
Sentry Tournament of Champions (Jan. 6-9)
Defending Champion: Harris English
OR: Xander Schauffele
CH: Patrick Reed
WC: Matt Jones
There are always two ways of attacking this one: With a small field and guaranteed paycheck, do you take a chance on a big name with a great opportunity to cash a big number or burn a less-elite champion from the previous season and hope for a solid finish? I prefer the first option. There’s so much win equity here for the top guys who choose to make the trip to Maui.
Sony Open (Jan. 13-16)
Defending Champion: Kevin Na
OR: Russell Henley
CH: Collin Morikawa
WC: Stephan Jaeger
It might only offer a slight edge, but I tend to favor players here who also played the previous week’s Sentry TOC. First of all, they’ll theoretically be more dialed in than their counterparts, with four competitive rounds under their belts already. Secondly, there’s no potential jetlag (or mental cobwebs, at least) for those simply going island-hopping.
The American Express (Jan. 20-23)
Defending Champion: Si Woo Kim
OR: Abraham Ancer
CH: Adam Hadwin
WC: Rickie Fowler
It’s often said that competing in Palm Springs is like playing golf in a dome, so I prefer to target players who can get dialed in with their irons and essentially fire at flagsticks.
Farmers Insurance Open (Jan. 27-30)
Defending Champion: Patrick Reed
OR: Jon Rahm
CH: Tony Finau
WC: Gary Woodland
To Rahm or not to Rahm, that is the question. Many of your fellow poolsters will pick the world’s top-ranked player here at Torrey Pines, a course which – in case you hadn’t heard – he tends to like. Many others will save him for a major. That’s a tough decision to make, but there’s a good chance that nobody winds up being wrong.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb. 3-6)
Defending Champion: Daniel Berger
OR: Jordan Spieth
CH: Dustin Johnson
WC: Max Homa
I’ve listed only big-name players above. Why? The first reason is that the annually subpar field offers a great opportunity for one of these guys to pick off a title. The second reason is that this one includes up to four pro-am rounds, which can be tough for those who aren’t used to it and unnerving for those who haven’t won before.
Waste Management Phoenix Open (Feb. 10-13)
Defending Champion: Brooks Koepka
OR: Jon Rahm
CH: Hideki Matsuyama
WC: Matthew Wolff
This one always feels less about course fit than personality fit. I either want a guy who enjoys showing off in front of the biggest crowds of the year (Koepka, Fowler) or one who is impervious to all the noise and other distractions outside the ropes (Simpson, Matsuyama).
The Genesis Invitational (Feb. 17-20)
Defending Champion: Max Homa
OR: Adam Scott
CH: Patrick Cantlay
WC: Sung Kang
When you think of Riviera, you often think of players with classic, classy golf swings, but the truth is that Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson and J.B. Holmes – three of the biggest hitters around – have combined to win five of the last eight titles.
The Honda Classic (Feb. 24-27)
Defending Champion: Matt Jones
OR: Russell Henley
CH: Byeong-hun An
WC: Lee Westwood
The start of the Florida Swing should also represent a shift in thinking, from those who prosper on the West Coast to those who tend to play their best golf in the Southeast part of the country. There’s often a palpable difference between the two.
Arnold Palmer Invitational (March 3-6)
Defending Champion: Bryson DeChambeau
OR: Marc Leishman
CH: Jason Kokrak
WC: Keegan Bradley
Believe it or not, players can still thrive at Bay Hill without being able to drive the par-5 sixth hole – or, uh, at least sorta, kinda trying to drive it. But yes, distance doesn’t hurt on this track, as proven so many times before.
Puerto Rico Open (March 3-6)
Defending Champion: Branden Grace
OR: Rafael Campos
CH: Scott Brown
WC: Greyson Sigg
Ah, the first of several alternate-field events on the schedule – and yes, there is a trick to these: Don’t pick a player who’s going to qualify for the bigger tourney that same week. OK, that might be the simplest analysis of all-time, but really, I try to refrain from choosing anyone who’s even close. You’d rather give yourself a chance with a lesser player than waste a more talented guy who qualified for a batter field.
The Players Championship (March 10-13)
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas
OR: Sergio Garcia
CH: Rory McIlroy
WC: Billy Horschel
I’ve always believed that the mark of a great tournament course is an ability to showcase a bunch different types of players on any given leaderboard. No venue does this better on an annual basis than TPC Sawgrass, which makes it fun to watch and horrible to handicap. When in doubt, though, go with the old reliable stat: Prominent ball-strikers should have a bit of an edge.
Valspar Championship (March 17-20)
Defending Champion: Sam Burns
OR: Patrick Reed
CH: Paul Casey
WC: Charl Schwartzel
Moved from its 2021 date in May back to its usual slot in March for this upcoming year, it might be more prudent to review previous leaderboards rather than the most recent one. Much like TPC Sawgrass, we should expect host course Innisbrook to play longer and softer earlier in the calendar.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (March 23-27)
Defending Champion: Billy Horschel
OR: Ian Poulter
CH: Louis Oosthuizen
WC: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
This is always a bit of a tricky one, especially if your pool isn’t one that allows week-of selections. You want to ensure that your pick is well within the top-64 and at least has a ticket to the dance, but the vagaries of the match play format suggest the pick shouldn’t be used on a high-end elite player who could easily be knocked out in the group stage.
Corales Puntacana Championship (March 24-27)
Defending Champion: Joel Dahmen
OR: Hudson Swafford
CH: Brice Garnett
WC: Greyson Sigg
Even if you didn’t watch this alternate-field event this past season, you might recall seeing the viral video of Dahmen posing with the trophy as his bucket hat nearly flew away. Moral of the story? It’s usually windy at this one, so figure out which player you like to fight the elements.
Valero Texas Open (March 31-April 3)
Defending Champion: Jordan Spieth
OR: Charley Hoffman
CH: Trey Mullinax
WC: Taylor Moore
Many of the “Old Reliable” picks are just players who have fared well at a specific event. Hoffman transcends that, with a win in 2016 and four other top-five results (including runner-up finishes in his last two starts). The all-time leading money winner here, he’s cashed over $1.8 million more than anyone else on the list.
Masters Tournament (April 7-10)
Defending Champion: Hideki Matsuyama
OR: Jordan Spieth
CH: Justin Thomas
WC: Sam Burns
As I wrote in the intro, don’t be afraid to be a little contrarian with some of your major championship picks. I’m not suggesting going with guys completely off the radar, but for every Jon Rahm U.S. Open win at Torrey Pines, there are a handful of less predictable major winners. In this one and each of the following three below, I’ve offered at least one choice who should be very low-owned in your OAD, but could offer some of that contrarian value.
RBC Heritage (April 14-17)
Defending Champion: Stewart Cink
OR: Webb Simpson
CH: Kevin Kisner
WC: Matthew NeSmith
Yet another venue where distance is less important than at most others, Harbour Town offers another great opportunity for those who are precise with their irons and love putting on Bermuda greens.
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (April 21-24)
Defending Champions: Marc Leishman/Cameron Smith
OR: Ryan Palmer (Jon Rahm)
CH: Scott Brown (Kevin Kisner)
WC: Chase Koepka (Brooks Koepka)
Different pools treat this two-man team event in different ways, but here’s a potential cheat code: In OADs where you can choose either partner, take the one you don’t mind burning here. For example: There’s no point in using up a stud like Brooks Koepka when you can pick his brother Chase (assuming they’re partners again) and get more bang for your buck.
Mexico Championship (April 28-May 1)
OR: Abraham Ancer
CH: Erik Van Rooyen
WC: Carlos Ortiz
No longer a WGC event, this one won’t get nearly the star-studded field that it received during the four-year run from 2017 through ’20, but it is a standalone tourney, so take that into account. This far in advance, with little else to go on, the smart move might be to stick with one of the talented countrymen who will undoubtedly add this to his schedule.
Wells Fargo Championship (May 5-8)
Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy
OR: Aaron Wise
CH: Luke List
WC: Doc Redman
With the Presidents Cup coming to Quail Hollow in 2022, this tournament will take a one-year detour to TPC Potomac, a 7,139-yard par-70, which last held the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and ’18, won by a pair of solid ball-strikers in Kyle Stanley and Francesco Molinari, though with very different scores of 7-under and 21-under, respectively.
AT&T Byron Nelson (May 12-15)
Defending Champion: K.H. Lee
OR: Keith Mitchell
CH: Will Zalatoris
WC: Joseph Bramlett
Played at TPC Craig Ranch for the first time this past season, previous editions of the leaderboard shouldn’t help as much for this one as most other events. With the following week’s PGA Championship just a few hundred miles away, don’t be surprised if this one generates a better entry list than previous years.
PGA Championship (May 19-22)
Defending Champion: Phil Mickelson
OR: Brooks Koepka
CH: Daniel Berger
WC: Abraham Ancer
Host course Southern Hills held the Senior PGA Championship last year and Alex Cejka won with a score of 8-under 272; prior to that, it hadn’t played host to a men’s professional tournament since 2007, when Tiger Woods won the PGA Championship with an identical score of 8-under 272. Don’t be shocked if this one resembles an old-school U.S. Open – maybe even a little more than some recent editions of the U.S. Open.
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 26-29)
Defending Champion: Jason Kokrak
OR: Brian Harman
CH: Jordan Spieth
WC: Emiliano Grillo
Check out this list of winners (and runners-up) at Colonial over the past half-dozen years: Jason Kokrak (Jordan Spieth); Daniel Berger (Collin Morikawa); Kevin Na (Tony Finau); Justin Rose (Brooks Koepka); Kevin Kisner (Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Sean O’Hair); and Jordan Spieth (Harris English). That’s a whole lotta star-power.
Memorial Tournament (June 2-5)
Defending Champion: Patrick Cantlay
OR: Collin Morikawa
CH: Jon Rahm
WC: Bo Hoag
If you’re looking to be a little contrarian with one of the big boys, the tourney at Jack’s Place could be a nice secondary option, offering plenty of value for the elite-level guys at potentially lower ownership in your pool.
RBC Canadian Open (June 9-12)
Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy
OR: Dustin Johnson
CH: Jhonattan Vegas
WC: Taylor Pendrith
You might not want to burn McIlroy here anyway, but for leagues with a no-defending-champions clause, it’s worth knowing whether his victory from 2019 makes him ineligible, as this event was canceled for the past two years. Of course, that can also make it tough to predict the entry list – especially wedged between the Memorial and the U.S. Open – but focusing on those with an RBC sponsorship and/or natives of Canada should offer the best chance of avoiding a DNS.
U.S. Open (June 16-19)
Defending Champion: Jon Rahm
OR: Bryson DeChambeau
CH: Matt Fitzpatrick
WC: Joaquin Niemann
There’s been a monumental shift in the type of player who wins U.S. Open titles in recent years. Once the domain of players like Corey Pavin and Jim Furyk – deadly accurate drivers and patient plodders – the last half-dozen winners have been big, brawny guys. This is largely due to narrowing fairways and thicker rough on lengthier courses (not to mention that the big hitters are often simply the best players), but The Country Club should play shorter than most, perhaps leveling the playing field just a bit.
Travelers Championship (June 23-26)
Defending Champion: Harris English
OR: Patrick Cantlay
CH: Kevin Streelman
WC: Maverick McNealy
Even scheduled after the U.S. Open, this tourney has done a somewhat miraculous job of wooing some of the game’s elite players to middle of Connecticut lately. With the previous week’s major just a couple of hours up the road, expect even more big names littering the field this season, as well.
John Deere Classic (June 30-July 3)
Defending Champion: Lucas Glover
OR: Kevin Streelman
CH: Doug Ghim
WC: Adam Long
Previously scheduled one week prior to The Open Championship, we have to wonder how this spot another week earlier will impact the field, which could see an uptick in talent level.
Genesis Scottish Open (July 7-10)
Defending Champion: Min Woo Lee
OR: Tyrrell Hatton
CH: Robert Macintyre
WC: Sam Horsfield
Wait, what? No, I didn’t accidentally include this from a European Tour OAD piece. As part of the PGA TOUR’s partnership with the Euro circuit, this one is now a co-sanctioned event, which means it should be part of the schedule for any leagues. This is a good opportunity to use a talented international player who might not have status on the U.S.-based tour.
Barbasol Championship (July 7-10)
Defending Champion: Seamus Power
OR: Mito Pereira
CH: Patrick Rodgers
WC: Vincent Whaley
Being played opposite the Scottish Open shouldn’t affect this tourney too much. Find your favorite birdie-maker for this one, as each of the half-dozen editions of the event have been won with a score between 18-under and 26-under.
The Open Championship (July 14-17)
Defending Champion: Collin Morikawa
OR: Louis Oosthuizen
CH: Tommy Fleetwood
WC: Viktor Hovland
Originally scheduled for 2021, the Old Course at St. Andrews will host the 150th edition of the world’s oldest golf tournament this coming year instead. Scoring at this one is always weather-dependent, of course, but perhaps nowhere more than at this venue. If the wind doesn’t blow and the rain isn’t spitting sideways, expect the world’s top players to go super-low, which means you’ll want guys who can make birdies in bunches.
Barracuda Championship (July 14-17)
Defending Champion: Erik Van Rooyen
OR: Richy Werenski
CH: Brandon Hagy
WC: Sahith Theegala
Employing the Modified Stableford format, you’ll want to target a streaky player who can take advantage of the par-5s with a few five-point eagles during the week and plenty of two-point birdies.
3M Open (July 21-24)
Defending Champion: Cameron Champ
OR: Matthew Wolff
CH: Keith Mitchell
WC: Erik Van Rooyen
If we’ve learned anything about this one in its first few years of existence, it’s that despite TPC Twin Cities measuring just 7,164 yards, driving distance remains a major advantage.
Rocket Mortgage Classic (July 28-31)
Defending Champion: Cam Davis
OR: Bryson DeChambeau
CH: Troy Merritt
WC: Henrik Norlander
I’ll lobby for Bryson here: He didn’t play the first year this one was contested, won it the second year and MC’d this past year, just a day after splitting ties with his caddie. Unless you love him somewhere else, I like using him at this one, where we should already be able to pencil him in as the pre-tournament betting favorite.
Wyndham Championship (Aug. 4-7)
Defending Champion: Kevin Kisner
OR: Webb Simpson
CH: Alex Smalley
WC: Harold Varner III
I often joke that I’ll always pick a player who named one of his children after the title sponsor, but Simpson has given us more reasons, too, finishing 7th-3rd-2nd-2nd-3rd-72nd-6th-5th-11th-22nd-1st-8th since 2010.
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug. 11-14)
OR: Justin Thomas
CH: Daniel Berger
WC: Harris English
This one replaces the erstwhile Northern Trust, meaning it takes on that event’s history, which is why Finau is listed as the defending champion, even though he won a title in the shadows of the Statue of Liberty, more than 1,000 miles from Memphis. Of course, even if prior history from the WGC at TPC Southwind won’t continue, that doesn’t mean you should neglect those recent leaderboards when making your selection.
BMW Championship (Aug. 18-21)
Defending Champion: Patrick Cantlay
OR: Paul Casey
CH: Sungjae Im
WC: Cameron Champ
The middle FedEx Cup playoff event continues to move around, landing at Wilmington CC in Wilmington, Del., this coming year. Don’t bother looking for past results from this site, since they don’t exist, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make this inference: When Caves Valley hosted this event in 2021, those charged with the setup erred on the side of caution, resulting in a pair of players posting scores of 27-under 261 for 72 holes. Save a player for the penultimate event who comes armed with some offensive firepower.
Tour Championship (Aug. 25-28)
Defending Champion: Patrick Cantlay
OR: Rory McIlroy
CH: Xander Schauffele
WC: Scottie Scheffler
Here’s a tip: Don’t fill in your pool sheet chronologically, or you’ll be scrambling for the eraser by the time you get to the season finale.
In fact, this might be the first one you should do, for three reasons: 1. You’ll want to obviously save an elite-level player for this limited-field event; 2. With so much money at stake, it’s arguably as important to your overall total as any other tourney; and 3. It’s absolutely no fun to have a shot at your OAD title going into the final week of the season, only to be stuck with a player who isn’t there.
Trust me on that last one, I speak from experience.
