Picking a first-round leader this week might be a little tougher than usual.
By the time I finish writing this, 45 more players will probably have withdrawn. Come Thursday, there may not be anybody left in the field. In addition to the WDs, it's been an absolute wash so far this week and players haven't gotten much practice time.
The early forecast has been miserable and players will have to wait until Friday for a somewhat tolerable day. On Thursday — the only day that really matters in this article — the weather is going to be tough for players, regardless of whether they tee off in the morning or afternoon.
The guys in the morning wave should be able to avoid any thunderstorms or heavy downpours (and with those, any possible delays). However, they still have to deal with winds blowing at 25 mph all day.
I usually don't worry too much about morning vs. afternoon tee times for scoring, but this week is different. I have a pretty limited list of morning waves guys who I trust with my money, so I'm going to keep my list short.
With that said, It's time to take a look at my favorite FRL bets for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Matt Fitzpatrick | +2200 | 8:08am*
Yes, Matt Fitzpatrick is the outright favorite this week. And yes, I like to pick him for FRL. But this week is different. There aren't a ton of guys who are this solid in the wind.
Fitz is one of the best ball strikers on TOUR. In windy conditions, he gains an average of one entire shot on the field, which is a big deal on the big stage.
Russell Knox | +6000 | 7:57am
The pride of Inverness likes to pop up out of nowhere and remind you the importance of the phrase "Scotland Foreverrrrrrrrrrrrr".
The British Isles are home to some of the toughest golf weather conditions into which somewhat sane people will venture. Knox clearly had his fair share of wind and rain in Scotland, which is evident in his strokes gained in those conditions compared to others.
This feels like a good week for Knox to play well. It's low pressure. He has a friend on the bag. The conditions are fitting. He could surprise us all.
Camilo Villegas | +8000 | 8:19am*
When I think of flighting the ball low and holding off my finish, sometimes I think of Camilo. (For the image of really holding off that finish). The multitalented Colombian gains exponentially more strokes on the field in windy conditions than any other.
Villegas' game is starting to show a lot of consistency in 2021, and those made cuts are going to turn into top-20's soon. This is a week when I'd expect him to play some of his best golf.
Villegas isn't miffed easily. I believe his discipline and mental toughness will help him this week while weather could potentially cause a lot of uncertainties.
