We had a sweaty weekend on both sides of the pond but came up a little short at the John Deere and the Scottish Open.
Now we're on to the year's final major, where I'll only have a couple picks this week. This was the one event where I added a few bets throughout the year. Some did beat their numbers this week, like grabbing Scottie Scheffler at 200/1 in October. Others did not, like Rasmus Hojgaard at 175/1, who will have a tough time winning since he's not in the field.
Overall, Tyrrell Hatton (+4000), Joaquin Niemann (+15000), Robert MacIntyre (+17500) and Ryan Palmer at +22500 (the latest addition who sucked me in on Sunday as he was climbing the Scottish Open leaderboard), make up the card already.
Of that group, Hatton's number can still be tracked down and is probably worth a look. Palmer saw a slight dip down to 150/1 and is a decent longshot given how well he played last week, but I wouldn't back the rest at their current numbers.
The Course
Royal St. George's host The Open for the first time since 2011. It's a par 70 that measures 7,189 yards and has produced some tough scoring conditions in the past.
Greg Norman's win in 1993 at 13-under par was the only time we've seen the winner shoot better than 5-under. It's no secret that The Open scoring is dependent largely on the weather. Rain early in the week could soften things up, but once the tournament gets going, the forecast calls for a decent amount of wind all four days that could make things tricky.
Since Norman's victory, Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011 are the most recent championship winners here. It's a weird group to say the least, but at their best, they were all strong off the tee. That's where my focus has been throughout the year when adding guys like Scheffler, MacIntyre and Hojgaard.
The course isn't long and provides room off the tee with wide fairways and spotty rough, so if one of the top guys with the driver gets going this week, they can create a lot of chances here with the short irons.
The Favorites
Jon Rahm opens up about as clear cut of a favorite as we've seen in a major this year at around +700. He's fresh off the U.S. Open win and had a solid ball-striking week in Scotland, though he came up a couple shots short of the win. Rahm is coming in with as good of form as anyone.
From there, it's a mix of who comes in No. 2 depending where you look. Some books have Brooks Koepka, others have Rory McIlroy. DraftKings has even tossed Dustin Johnson in there as well.
Definitely shop this group around, but of the trio, Koepka is clearly playing the best. He's finished inside the top five in three of his last four starts including second at the PGA Championship and fourth at the U.S. Open. He's also placed inside the top 10 in three of his last four starts in The Open Championship. In the distant past before Brooks became who he is today, this was the major where I thought he'd make a breakthrough since he first found success almost 10 years ago.
Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele make up that next group and can be found pushing +2000. Schauffele and Thomas both put together solid weeks at the Scottish Open, and Spieth already has an Open win, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see anyone in this range take the title.
Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland close out this group at around +2800. DeChambeau has yet to figure out The Open, and while I think the driver is the advantage this week, I'm leaning to the people who are a little more accurate and have some control to go along with their length. Hovland makes his debut in the event off a solid win in Germany a couple weeks ago, so the confidence should be high heading into the week.
The Mid-Tier
As I mentioned, I won't be adding much more to the current card. But I do like Marc Leishman this week at +6600 on BetMGM. Leishman has finished sixth or better in three of his last six Open starts. He's also started playing a little better, just missing the Harris English/Kramer Hickok playoff at the Travelers by a shot after gaining 4.5 strokes off the tee. The Aussies are riding a bit of a heater in Europe with Lucas Herbert and Min Woo Lee winning back-to-back events, so we'll see if Leishman can add to the success of his compatriots.
We'll also go to Sergio Garcia at +8000 on DraftKings. Of all the majors, The Open is where Sergio has been the most consistent. He's finished inside the top 10 on 10 different occasions, compared to 13 at the other three majors combined. He's also played well twice at Royal St. George's, taking 10th in 2003 and ninth in 2011. The approach game struggled a few months back, but he's got the ball-striking on track in the past couple events, leading to top 20s at Colonial and the U.S. Open.
The Longshots
I already have five guys in this range, but we'll tack on one more.
I'll take a stab at Keegan Bradley at +20000 on FanDuel. If I bet Sergio, there's not too much of difference backing Keegan. He's got three top 20s in The Open, so he can play well over here, and the form is about as good as it can be with him finishing inside the top 20 in four of his last six starts.
We know it all comes down to the putter, but when the game is on, he can take down an elite field. He's got a major, WGC and FedEx event on the resume of four career wins, so the field strength hasn't really mattered much for him.
The Open Card (Currently Available)
- Tyrrell Hatton +4000 (.83 units)
- Marc Leishman +6600 (.5 units)
- Sergio Garcia +8000 (.41 units)
- Ryan Palmer +15000 (.22 units)
- Keegan Bradley +20000 (.17 units)
Total Stake: 2.13 units
